APPARATUS AND METHOD FOR FORECASTING ENERGY CONSUMPTION

• US 20140095415A1
• Filed: 06/12/2013
• Published: 04/03/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 09/28/2012
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute
• Original Assignee: Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute
• Inventors: LEE, Byung Bog, YOO, Yoon Sik, BANG, Hyochan, YU, Jae Hak
• Application Number:
  US13/916,309
• Publication Number:
  US 20140095415A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/12
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/00 Machine learning
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/10 using kernel methods, e.g. support vector machines [SVM]
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/04 Inference or reasoning models

Abstract

An apparatus for forecasting energy consumption includes a load data collection unit to collect low level data related to energy load data. The apparatus includes a filtering/attribute selection unit to eliminate duplicated attributes from attributes of low level data to produce an optimal attribute set. The apparatus includes a training unit produces a multi-class in which a plurality of single classes is hierarchically coupled in at least two levels and creates training data used for forecasting the energy consumption based on the produced multi-class. The apparatus includes a forecasting unit calculates the energy consumption to be forecasted on a basis of the real-time low level data, the multi-class and the training data. Therefore, it is possible to contribute to the progressive expansion and update of a cooling load forecasting system.

Claims

1. An apparatus for forecasting energy consumption, the apparatus comprising:

a load data collection unit configured to collect low level data from a device that generates energy load data;

a filtering and attribute selection unit configured to eliminate attributes that are duplicated or used below a prefixed average from attributes of the collected low level data to produce an optimal attribute set;

a training unit configured to produce a multi-class in which a plurality of single classes is hierarchically coupled in at least two levels and create training data used for forecasting the energy consumption based on the produced multi-class, wherein each single class includes its optimal attribute set; and

a forecasting unit configured to receive the low level data in real-time from the load data collection unit and calculate the energy consumption to be forecasted on a basis of the received real-time low level data, the multi-class and the training data.

2. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the filtering and attribute selection unit is configured to calculate a conditional probability using entropies of the attributes, Pearson'"'"'s correlation coefficients between the attributes and target classes including the attributes and the best search method to produce the optimal attribute set.

3. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the filtering and attribute selection unit is configured to:

calculate an entropy of an arbitrary attribute contained in the low level data;

calculate a conditional probability between the arbitrary attribute and each of remaining arbitrary attributes;

calculate information gain for each of the arbitrary attribute and the remaining attributes;

calculate conditional probability correlation using the arbitrary attribute and each of remaining arbitrary attributes, the distribution and Pearson'"'"'s correlation coefficient between the arbitrary attribute and each of remaining arbitrary attributes and target classes including the arbitrary attribute, based on the information gain;

form a plurality of subsets based on the conditional probability correlation; and

calculate merit functions with respect to the plurality of subsets to select a subset whose merit function has the largest value as the optimal attribute set.

4. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the training unit is configured to produce the multi-class on a basis of an SVDD (Support Vector Data Description) for generating each of the single classes.

5. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the training unit is configured to produce the multi-class having a determination boundary surface to be independent.

6. The apparatus of claim 1, further comprising a filtering unit configured to filter the real-time low level data using the optimal attribute set,

wherein the forecasting unit is configured to forecast the energy consumption based on the filtered data and the training data.

7. A method for forecasting energy consumption, the method comprising:

collecting low level data from a device that generates energy load data;

eliminating attributes that are duplicated or used below a prefixed average from the attributes of the collected low level data to produce an optimal attribute set;

producing a plurality of single classes, each single class including its optimal attribute set;

producing a multi-class in which the single classes are hierarchically coupled in at least two levels; and

creating training data to forecast the energy consumption based on the produced multi-class.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein said producing the optimal attribute set comprises:

calculating an entropy of an arbitrary attribute contained in the low level data;

calculating a conditional probability between the arbitrary attribute and each of remaining attributes;

calculating information gain for each of the arbitrary attribute and the remaining attributes;

calculating conditional probability correlation using the arbitrary attribute and each of remaining arbitrary attributes, the distribution and Pearson'"'"'s correlation coefficient between the arbitrary attribute and each of remaining arbitrary attributes and target classes including the arbitrary attribute, based on the information gain;

forming a plurality of subsets based on the conditional probability correlation; and

calculating merit functions with respect to the plurality of subsets to select a subset whose merit function has the largest value as the optimal attribute set.

9. The method of claim 7, wherein said producing a plurality of single classes comprises:

producing a determination boundary surface of each single class so that the plurality of the single classes is independent with one another;

calculating a sphere size including the optimal attribute set; and

producing the plurality of single classes based on the calculate sphere size and the determination border surface.

10. The method of claim 7, wherein said collecting low level data comprises:

filtering the real-time low level data using the optimal attribute set; and

forecasting the energy consumption based on the filtered data and the training data.