DISTRIBUTED FORECASTING AND PRICING SYSTEM

• US 20140108093A1
• Filed: 10/15/2012
• Published: 04/17/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 10/15/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Yu, Jia Yuan
• Granted Patent: US 10,366,403 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors

Abstract

A method, system and computer program product for distributed forecasting and pricing for a commodity supplied by a provider to a user. In one embodiment, the provider announces a pricing plan, and the provider receives a forecast of an estimated amount of the commodity from the provider that the user will use over a given period of time. The provider provides the user with an actual amount of the commodity over the given period; and the provider charges the user for the actual amount of the commodity provided to the user based on the pricing policy, the actual amount of the commodity provided to the user, and the accuracy of the forecast. In an embodiment, the forecast is received by the provider after the provider announces the pricing plan and before the given period begins. The forecast may be received from the user or from a third-party forecaster.

Claims

1. A method of distributed forecasting and pricing for a commodity supplied by a provider to a user, the method comprising:

the provider announcing a pricing plan;

the provider receiving a forecast of an estimated amount of the commodity from the provider that the user will use over a given period of time;

the provider providing the user with an actual amount of the commodity over the given period of time; and

the provider charging the user for the actual amount of the commodity provided to the user by the provider over the given period of time based on said pricing policy, said actual amount of the commodity provided to the user, and accuracy of said forecast.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the receiving a forecast includes submitting the forecast to the provider after the provider announces the pricing plan.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the receiving a forecast includes submitting the forecast to the provider before the given period of time begins.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the receiving a forecast includes receiving adjusted forecasts during said given period of time.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the receiving a forecast includes receiving the forecast from the user.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the receiving a forecast includes receiving the forecast from a forecaster, different from the user and the provider.

7. The method according to claim 1, further comprising repeating the provider receiving a forecast, and the provider providing the user with an actual amount of the commodity, a multitude of times over a defined length of time.

8. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

monitoring the actual amount of the commodity provided to the user; and

wherein;

the forecast is adjusted based on said monitoring.

9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the forecast includes an estimated upper limit and an estimated lower limit of the commodity from the provider that the user will use over said given period of time.

10. The method according to claim 1, wherein:

the given time period includes a multitude of time intervals; and

the forecast includes a mean of a multitude of partial amounts, each of said partial amounts being an amount of the commodity from the provider that the user will use in a respective one of said multitude of time intervals.

11. The method according to claim 10, wherein the forecast includes a variance from a defined value.

12. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining a measured confidence in the forecast based on a defined procedure; and

the provider charging the user for the actual amount of the commodity provided to the user by the provider over the given period of time includes charging the user for the actual amount of the commodity provided to the user based on said measured confidence in the forecast.

13. The method according to claim 1, wherein:

the user produces a quantity of the commodity; and

the forecast includes a negative factor representing the quantity of the commodity produced by the user.

14. The method according to claim 1, further comprising:

the provide consuming a quantity of the commodity; and

wherein;

the forecast includes a negative factor representing the quantity of the commodity consumed by the provider.

15. The method according to claim 1, wherein the receiving a forecast includes receiving the forecast from a mobile communications device.

16. An article of manufacture, comprising:

at least one tangible computer readable device having computer readable program code logic tangibly embodied therein to provide pricing for a commodity supplied by a provider to a user, the method comprising;

receiving a forecast to the provider of an estimated amount of the commodity from the provider that the user will use over a given period of time; and

determining a charge to the user for an actual amount of the commodity provided to the user by the provider over the given period of time based on a pricing policy specified by the provider, said actual amount of the commodity provided to the user, and accuracy of said forecast.

17. The article of manufacture according to claim 16, wherein the forecast is received before the given period of time begins.

18. The article of manufacture according to claim 16, wherein the receiving a forecast includes receiving adjustments to the forecast during said given period of time.

19. The article of manufacture according to claim 16, wherein the forecast is received from the user.

20. The article of manufacture according to claim 16, wherein the forecast includes an estimated upper limit and an estimated lower limit of the commodity from the provider that the user will use over said given period of time, and the determining a charge to the user includes determining said charge based on said estimated upper limit and estimated lower limit.

21. A method of distributed forecasting and pricing for a commodity supplied by a provider to a multitude of users, the method comprising:

the provider announcing a pricing plan;

for each of the multitude of users, the provider receiving a forecast of an estimated amount of the commodity from the provider that said each user will use over a given period of time;

the provider providing each of the multitude of users with an actual amount of the commodity over the given period of time; and

the provider charging each of the multitude of users for the actual amount of the commodity provided to said each user by the provider over the given period of time based on said pricing policy, said actual amount of the commodity provided to said each user, and accuracy of said forecast for said each user.

22. The method according to claim 21, wherein the forecasts for all the multitude of users are received by the provider after the provider announces the pricing plan.

23. The method according to claim 21, wherein the forecasts for all the multitude of users are received by the provider before the given period of time begins.

24. The method according to claim 21, wherein the forecasts for at least some of the multitude of users are adjusted during said given period of time.

25. The method according to claim 21, wherein the forecast for each of the multitude of users is submitted to the provider by said each user.