Prediction Apparatus and Prediction Method

• US 20140129508A1
• Filed: 01/10/2014
• Published: 05/08/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 03/29/2010
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Limited (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Incorporated)
• Original Assignee: Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Limited (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Incorporated)
• Inventors: Kawamoto, Hideo
• Application Number:
  US14/151,971
• Publication Number:
  US 20140129508A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2209/5019 Workload prediction
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03

Abstract

A prediction apparatus predicts an upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period in a system which executes a job responding to a request from outside. The prediction apparatus firstly acquires a sample data regarding the job. The sample data to be acquired is a sample data from which the number of job executions for each unit period in the past can be identified. Then, based on a distribution of the number of job executions identified from the sample data, the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period in the future is predicted. Thereafter, the predicted upper limit is outputted.

Claims

1. A prediction apparatus that predicts an upper limit of a number of job executions per unit period in a system executing a job responding to a request from outside, comprising:

an acquisition device that acquires a sample data regarding the job, from which a number of job executions for each unit period in a past can be identified; and

a prediction device that predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period in a future, based on a distribution of the number of job executions for each unit period identified from the sample data, and then outputs the predicted upper limit.

2. The prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the prediction device:

calculates a value of an endpoint of a confidence interval at a predetermined confidence level of the number of job executions per unit period, based on the number of job executions for each unit period identified from the sample data, on an assumption that a probability distribution of the number of job executions per unit period follows a normal distribution; and

predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period based on the value of the endpoint of the confidence interval.

3. The prediction apparatus according to claim 2, wherein the prediction device predicts a value of an upper endpoint of the confidence interval to be the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period.

4. The prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the prediction device calculates a probability distribution of the number of job executions per unit period, based on the number of job executions for each unit period identified from the sample data, and predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period based on the calculated probability distribution.

5. The prediction apparatus according to claim 4, wherein

the prediction device predicts a minimum value of the number of job executions per unit period in a range where a cumulative probability is greater than a specific probability to be the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period, the cumulative probability being a cumulative probability of the number of job executions per unit period and changing in accordance with the number of job executions per unit period, which functions as a variable, and

the cumulative probability is calculated by accumulating an occurrence probability for each value of the number of job executions per unit period identified from the probability distribution, in ascending order of the value of the number of job executions per unit period, up to a value of the number of job executions per unit period corresponding to the variable.

6. The prediction apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the prediction device calculates the probability distribution with an action of correction to show unimodality, and predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period based on the calculated probability distribution.

7. The prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein

the system is a system which executes as the job a transaction responding to a request from outside, and

the prediction device predicts, as the number of job executions per unit period, an upper limit of a number of transactions per unit period in the system.

8. A recording medium that is computer-readable and stores a program which causes a computer to execute processing of predicting an upper limit of a number of job executions per unit period in a system executing a job responding to a request from outside, the processing comprising:

a procedure that acquires a sample data regarding the job, from which a number of job executions for each unit period in a past can be identified; and

a procedure that predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period in a future, based on a distribution of the number of job executions for each unit period identified from the sample data, and outputting the predicted upper limit.

9. A prediction method that predicts an upper limit of a number of job executions per unit period in a system executing a job responding to a request from outside, comprising:

an acquisition procedure that acquires a sample data regarding the job, from which a number of job executions for each unit period in a past can be identified; and

a prediction procedure that predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period in a future, based on a distribution of the number of job executions for each unit period identified from the sample data, and then outputting the predicted upper limit.

10. The prediction method according to claim 9, wherein the prediction procedure is a procedure that

calculates a value of an endpoint of a confidence interval at a predetermined confidence level of the number of job executions per unit period, based on the number of job executions for each unit period identified from the sample data, on an assumption that a probability distribution of the number of job executions per unit period follows a normal distribution, and

predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period based on the value of the endpoint of the confidence interval.

11. The prediction method according to claim 10, wherein the prediction procedure is a procedure that predicts a value of an upper endpoint of the confidence interval to be the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period.

12. The prediction method according to claim 9, wherein the prediction procedure is a procedure that

calculates a probability distribution of the number of job executions per unit period, based on the number of job executions for each unit period identified from the sample data, and

predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period, based on the calculated probability distribution.

13. The prediction method according to claim 12, wherein

the prediction procedure is a procedure that predicts a minimum value of the number of job executions per unit period in a range where a cumulative probability is greater than a specific probability to be the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period, the cumulative probability being a cumulative probability of the number of job executions per unit period and changing in accordance with the number of job executions per unit period, which functions as a variable, and

the cumulative probability is calculated by accumulating an occurrence probability for each value of the number of job executions per unit period identified from the probability distribution, in ascending order of the value of the number of job executions per unit period, up to a value of the number of job executions per unit period corresponding to the variable.

14. The prediction method according to claim 12, wherein the prediction procedure is a procedure that calculates the probability distribution with an action of correction to show unimodality, and predicts the upper limit of the number of job executions per unit period based on the calculated probability distribution.

15. The prediction method according to claim 9, wherein

the system is a system which executes a transaction responding to a request from outside, and

the prediction procedure is a procedure that predicts an upper limit of a number of transactions per unit period in the system, as the number of job executions per unit period.