ASSET FAILURE PREDICTION WITH LOCATION UNCERTAINTY

• US 20140200829A1
• Filed: 08/08/2013
• Published: 07/17/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 01/11/2013
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Hampapur, Arun, Li, Hongfei, Parikh, Dhaivat P.
• Granted Patent: US 10,414,416 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/34
• CPC Class Codes: B61K 9/08 Measuring installations for surveying permanent way applications of measuring apparatus or devices for track building purposes E01B35/00; measuring techniques G01
• CPC Class Codes: B61L 23/042 Track changes detection
• CPC Class Codes: B61L 23/044 Broken rails
• CPC Class Codes: B61L 23/045 Rail wear
• CPC Class Codes: B61L 23/047 Track or rail movements
• CPC Class Codes: B61L 27/53 for trackside elements or systems, e.g. trackside supervision of trackside control system conditions
• CPC Class Codes: B61L 27/60 Testing or simulation
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/20 Design optimisation, verification or simulation optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

Geo-defect repair modeling with location uncertainty is provided. A method includes logically dividing a railroad network into segments each of a specified length. The method also includes identifying, via a computer processor, geo-defects and approximated locations of the geo-defects occurring at each inspection run for each of the segments. The method also includes calculating, via the computer processor, a rate of increase in amplitude of each of the geo-defects for each of the segments between inspection runs, determining a correlation of the geo-defects between the inspection runs as a function of the approximated locations, and predicting a deterioration rate for each of the geo-defects based on the calculating.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

logically dividing a railroad network into segments each of a specified length;

identifying, via a computer processor, geo-defects and approximated locations of the geo-defects occurring at each inspection run for each of the segments;

calculating, via the computer processor, a rate of increase in amplitude of each of the geo-defects for each of the segments between inspection runs;

determining a correlation of the geo-defects between the inspection runs as a function of the approximated locations; and

predicting a deterioration rate for each of the geo-defects based on the calculating.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the segments of the railroad network are of equal length.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the segments do not overlap.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

upon determining multiple geo-defects exist for one of the segments at one of the inspection runs and at least one geo-defect exists for the one of the segments at another of the inspection runs, aggregating the multiple geo-defects to reflect the single geo-defect.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the predicting includes processing only the geo-defects having a rate of increase in amplitude at a defined threshold value resulting from the calculating.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

determining a repair decision for each of the geo-defects based on the predicting.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein geo-defect types include at least one of:

align;

cant;

dip;

gauge;

harmonic cross-level;

over-elevation;

reverse cross-level;

super cross-level elevation;

surf;

twist;

warp; and

wear.

8. A computer program product comprising a computer-readable storage medium having program code embodied thereon, which when executed by a computer processor, causes the computer processor to implement a method, the method comprising:

logically dividing a railroad network into segments each of a specified length;

identifying geo-defects and approximated locations of the geo-defects occurring at each inspection run for each of the segments;

calculating a rate of increase in amplitude of each of the geo-defects for each of the segments between inspection runs;

determining a correlation of the geo-defects between the inspection runs as a function of the approximated locations; and

predicting a deterioration rate for each of the geo-defects based on the calculating.

9. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the segments of the railroad network are of equal length.

10. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the segments do not overlap.

11. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the program code is further executable for performing:

upon determining multiple geo-defects exist for one of the segments at one of the inspection runs and at least one geo-defect exists for the one of the segments at another of the inspection runs, aggregating the multiple geo-defects to reflect the single geo-defect.

12. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the predicting includes processing only the geo-defects having a rate of increase in amplitude at a defined threshold value resulting from the calculating.

13. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein the program code is further executable for performing:

determining a repair decision for each of the geo-defects based on the predicting.

14. The computer program product of claim 8, wherein geo-defect types include at least one of:

align;

cant;

dip;

gauge;

harmonic cross-level;

over-elevation;

reverse cross-level;

super cross-level elevation;

surf;

twist;

warp; and

wear.