DEMAND PREDICTION APPARATUS, DEMAND PREDICTION METHOD, AND DEMAND PREDICTION PROGRAM

• US 20140207520A1
• Filed: 09/24/2012
• Published: 07/24/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 09/26/2011
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
• Original Assignee: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
• Inventors: Mitsuhashi, Masato, Matsuo, Atsushi, Arai, Takashi
• Application Number:
  US14/235,978
• Publication Number:
  US 20140207520A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A demand prediction apparatus (10) includes: an activity number acquisition unit (161a) that acquires the number of activities of a target that a demand is predicted; a replacement factor calculation unit (161b) that calculates a replacement factor of the target that a demand is predicted based on a first curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series and a second curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series; and a demand prediction unit (161c) that calculates a demand for the target that a demand is predicted based on the number of activities acquired at the activity number acquisition unit (161a) and the replacement factor calculated at the replacement factor calculation unit (161b).

Claims

1. A demand prediction apparatus comprising:

an activity number acquisition unit being configured to acquire a number of activities of a target for which a demand is predicted;

a replacement factor calculation unit being configured to calculate a replacement factor of the target for which a demand is predicted based on a first curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series and a second curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series; and

a demand prediction unit being configured to predict a demand for the target based on a number of activities acquired at the activity number acquisition unit and the replacement factor calculated at the replacement factor calculation unit.

2. The demand prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the first curve is a curve based on a first Weibull distribution, and the second curve is a curve based on a second Weibull distribution.

3. The demand prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the first Weibull distribution is different in at least a location parameter from the second Weibull distribution.

4. The demand prediction apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a storage unit configured to store a plurality of parameters to determine the first curve and the second curve,

wherein the replacement factor calculation unit determines the first curve and the second curve based on a parameter selected from the parameters stored on the storage unit.

5. The demand prediction apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the storage unit stores the parameters for individual specifications of the target.

6. The demand prediction apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the storage unit stores the parameters for individual regions in which a demand is predicted.

7. The demand prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the replacement factor calculation unit varies a height of the first curve and a height of the second curve based on a temporal change in a ratio at which the target is used in a market.

8. A demand prediction method executed by a demand prediction apparatus, the method comprising the steps of:

acquiring a number of activities of a target that a demand is predicted;

calculating a replacement factor of the target that a demand is predicted based on a first curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series and a second curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series; and

calculating a demand for the target that a demand is predicted based on the number of activities and the replacement factor.

9. A demand prediction program that causes a demand prediction apparatus to perform the steps of:

acquiring a number of activities of a target that a demand is predicted;

calculating a replacement factor of the target that a demand is predicted based on a first curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series and a second curve that expresses a change of a probability of occurrence of a failure in a time series; and

calculating a demand for the target that a demand is predicted based on the number of activities and the replacement factor.