FORECASTING OUTPUT POWER OF WIND TURBINE IN WIND FARM

• US 20140244188A1
• Filed: 02/24/2014
• Published: 08/28/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 02/28/2013
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Utopus Insights, Inc. (Vestas Wind Systems A/S)
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Bai, Xin Xin, Dong, Jin, Rui, Xiao Guang, Wang, Hai Feng, Yin, Wen Jun, Zhang, Meng, Du, Hui
• Granted Patent: US 10,215,162 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/60
• CPC Class Codes: F03D 17/00 Monitoring or testing of wind motors, e.g. diagnostics testing during commissioning of wind motors F03D13/30
• CPC Class Codes: F05B 2260/821 Parameter estimation or prediction
• CPC Class Codes: F05B 2260/8211 of the weather
• CPC Class Codes: F05B 2270/335 Output power or torque
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 30/00 Adapting or protecting infrastructure or their operation
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 10/72 Wind turbines with rotation axis in wind direction
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 10/76 Power conversion electric or electronic aspects
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 60/00 Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation

Abstract

A method and apparatus for forecasting output power of wind turbine in a wind farm. The present invention provides a method for forecasting output power of a wind turbine in a wind farm, including: generating a corrected data set based on environmental data collected from at least one sensor in the wind farm; correcting a weather forecasting model by using the corrected data set; obtaining a forecast value of wind information at the wind turbine based on the corrected weather forecasting model; and forecasting the output power of the wind turbine based on the forecast value and a power forecasting model.

Claims

1. A method for forecasting an output power of a wind turbine in a wind farm, the method comprising:

generating a corrected data set based on environmental data collected from a sensor in the wind farm;

correcting a weather forecasting model by using the corrected data set;

obtaining a forecast value of wind information at the wind turbine based on the weather forecasting model which is corrected by using the corrected data set; and

forecasting the output power of the wind turbine based on the forecast value and a power forecasting model.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the generating the corrected data set based on the environmental data collected from the sensor in the wind farm comprises:

obtaining wind information of at least one wind turbine in the wind farm and meteorological data in the wind farm; and

generating the corrected data set based on the wind information and the meteorological data.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein:

the wind information comprises wind direction and wind velocity; and

the wind direction is obtained based on at least one of;

calculating the wind direction based on a yaw angle of a wind turbine in the wind farm;

calculating the wind direction based on a wind direction at a wind tower in the wind farm;

obtaining the wind direction based on a fluid dynamics analysis; and

obtaining the wind direction based on a power curve deviation analysis.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the correcting the weather forecasting model by using the corrected data set comprises:

correcting the weather forecasting model by using the corrected data set according to a Hybrid Data Assimilation method.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the correcting the weather forecasting model by using the corrected data set comprises:

selecting a data member from the corrected data set; and

correcting the weather forecasting model based on the data member in each round.

6. The method according to claim 5, wherein the selecting data member from the corrected data set comprises:

filtering a plurality of data members in the corrected data set according to a grid point information in the weather forecasting model.

7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the correcting the weather forecasting model based on one of the data member in each round further comprises:

sorting the at least one data member of the plurality of data members according to a dependence in the at least one data member in the corrected data set; and

using each data member to correct the weather forecasting model in a sequence.

8. The method according to claim 1, wherein the weather forecasting model is extracted from a terrain data and a Global Forecast System data associated with an area where the wind farm is located.

9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the sensor comprises:

a meteorological sensor at a wind tower in the wind farm; and

a wind velocity sensor at a wind turbine in the wind farm.

10. The method according to claim 1, wherein the power forecasting model is at least one of:

a power curve of the wind turbine; and

a function related to a plurality of properties of the wind turbine, air density, and the forecast value.

11. An apparatus for forecasting an output power of a wind turbine in a wind farm, comprising:

a generating module configured to generate a corrected data set based on environmental data collected from at least one sensor in the wind farm;

a correcting module configured to correct a weather forecasting model by using the corrected data set;

an obtaining module configured to obtain a forecast value of wind information at the wind turbine based on the weather forecasting model that is corrected by using the corrected data set; and

a forecasting module configured to forecast the output power of the wind turbine based on the forecast value and a power forecasting model.

12. The apparatus according to claim 11, wherein the generating module comprises:

an information obtaining module configured to obtain at least one of wind information of a plurality of wind turbines in the wind farm and meteorological data within the wind farm; and

a data generating module configured to generate the corrected data set based on at least one of the wind information and the meteorological data.

13. The apparatus according to claim 12, wherein

the wind information comprises wind direction and wind velocity;

and

the information obtaining module comprises the following;

a first module configured to calculate the wind direction based on a yaw angle of a wind turbine in the wind farm;

a second module configured to calculate the wind direction based on a wind direction at a wind tower in the wind farm;

a third module configured to obtain the wind direction based on a fluid dynamics analysis; and

a fourth module configured to obtain the wind direction based on a power curve deviation analysis.

14. The apparatus according to claim 11, wherein the correcting module comprises:

a data assimilating module configured to correct the weather forecasting model by using the corrected data set according to a Hybrid Data Assimilation method.

15. The apparatus according to claim 14, wherein the correcting module comprises:

a selecting module configured to select a data member from the corrected data set; and

a first correcting module configured to correct the weather forecasting model based on the at least one data member in each round.

16. The apparatus according to claim 15, wherein the selecting module comprises:

a filtering module configured to filter a plurality of data members in the corrected data set according to grid point information in the weather forecasting model.

17. The apparatus according to claim 16, wherein the first correcting module comprises:

a sorting module configured to sort the at least one data member of the plurality of data members according to a dependence in the at least one data member in the corrected data set; and

a second correcting module configured to use each of the at least one data member to correct the weather forecasting model in a sequence.

18. The apparatus according to claim 11, wherein the weather forecasting model is extracted from a terrain data and a Global Forecast System data associated with an area where the wind farm is located.

19. The apparatus according to claim 11, wherein the sensor comprises:

a meteorological sensor at a wind tower in the wind farm; and

a wind velocity sensor at a wind turbine in the wind farm.

20. The apparatus according to claim 11, wherein the power forecasting model is at least one of:

a power curve of the wind turbine; and

a function related to a plurality of properties of the wind turbine, air density, and the forecast value.