Method And Systems For Illuminating Statistical Uncertainties To Empower Decision Making

• US 20140279327A1
• Filed: 03/15/2013
• Published: 09/18/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 03/15/2013
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Andrew Keyes
• Original Assignee: Andrew Keyes
• Inventors: Keyes, Andrew
• Application Number:
  US13/840,054
• Publication Number:
  US 20140279327A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/35
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03

Abstract

An interactive method and system determining the results of life style choices over time. The user inputs one or more lifetime goals. In response, the system provides the user with one or more input selections based on the user'"'"'s goals. The users'"'"' selections are classified as an Income or an Expense. The classified Income and Expense selections are further classified as analytic or probabilistic. The one or more analytic selections have a known or calculable quantity. The probabilistic selections have an unknown quantity that can be calculated over time by applying a distribution curve based on real world data. The probabilistic calculations includes one or more iterations such that a value can determined for each Income or Expense and wherein the Income and Expense values are summarized over the appropriate number of iterations such that a cash-flow result is calculated. The cash-flow results that fall within the distribution curve are counted such that the probability of the user reaching their goals based on their lifestyle choices can be determined and displayed graphically via the user interface.

Claims

1. A method for illuminating uncertainties to empower decision-making comprising:

providing a user interface stored in memory and executing on a computing device capable of accepting user inputs and providing outputs, wherein the computing device provides for,

accepting user inputs including information related to user demographic and user goals,

determining one or more output queries for selection by the user wherein the kind and type of output query presented to the user is based on the accepted user inputs, wherein the user response to the output queries are used for;

classifying the one or more user inputs as an Income or an Expense,

further classifying the one or more user inputs as analytic or probabilistic, wherein;

analytic inputs have a known or calculable quantity and are summarized over one or more life phases as selected by user, and

probabilistic inputs have an unknown quantity that can be approximated over time by applying a distribution curve based on real world data and is summarized over one or more life phases as selected by user, wherein

a random number generator is used to generate a random number that the computing device can apply to an inverse of the distribution curve to determine the probability of falling along a particular point on an X-axis of the curve such that the probability of achieving a particular value on the X-axis can be determined;

repeating for one or more sufficient iterations until an intermediate or final distribution curve is filled such that for each iteration, a descriptive statistic can be determined for each probabilistic variable along the X-axis;

using the descriptive statistics to calculate summarized Income, Expense, Savings and Cash-flow values over an appropriate number of iterations;

such that a Cash-flow and Savings distribution is created based on the user selections, and wherein

determining Cash-flow and Savings results are summarized such that the probability of reaching various goals can be determined and displayed graphically via the user interface to indicate the user'"'"'s probability of attaining various levels of success.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein an output driver may include demographic factors, such as secure retirement age, desired location, level of retirement income, Cash-flow over a lifetime, lifetime taxes, size of the retirement nest egg, etc.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein an input query may include desired lifestyle choices such as type of home, type of car, level of education, career and income choices, investment strategies, entrepreneurial goals, number of children, starting age, targeted retirement age, etc.

4. The system according to claim 1, wherein the distribution curve is based on real world data.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the determining of the probability of reaching the defined goals can be calculated at one or more different life phases.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the shape of the distribution curve is influenced by one or more risk management factors such as, Insurance, Emergency Cash Fund, National or Regional unemployment rate, etc.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the user goal is a retirement savings at a specific age of the user.

8. The method according to claim 1, wherein the Cash-flow for one lifetime can be calculated based on an equation Cash-flow=Σ

(I_x−

E_x)_n, SUM for N number of life phases, wherein I is income for a predetermined period, E is expenses for a predetermined period.

9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the Cash-flow for multiple life phases can be gathered to build a dataset to which descriptive statistics can be applied.

10. The method according to claim 1, wherein only input drivers that meet a predetermined threshold are considered.

11. A system for executing on a computing device for illuminating uncertainties to empower decision-making wherein the system comprises code stored in a memory of the computing device and operable through a user interface comprising:

an input device operable via the user interface for selecting one or more output drivers, wherein the output drivers are based on one or more measurable user goals and user demographics;

selecting one or more input queries via the user interface, wherein the input queries are based upon the determined output drivers and wherein said one or more input queries relate to lifestyle choices of the user, and wherein

the computing device classifying one or more input query selections as an Income or an Expense,

the computing device further classifying the one or more input query selections as analytic or probabilistic, wherein;

analytic input selections have a known or calculable quantity and are summarized for one or more life phases as selected by user, and

probabilistic input selections have an unknown quantity that can be approximated over time and are summarized for one or more life phases as selected by user, by randomly selecting from a distribution curve based on real world data, wherein

a random number generator is used to generate a random number that the computing device can apply to an inverse of the distribution curve to determine the probability of falling a particular point along an X-axis of the curve such that the probability of achieving a particular value on the X-axis can be determined;

repeating for one or more sufficient iterations until an intermediate or final distribution curve is filled such that for each iteration, a descriptive statistic can be determined for each probabilistic variable along the X-axis; and

using the descriptive statistics to calculate summarized Income, Expense, Savings and Cash-flow values over an appropriate number of iterations;

such that a Cash-flow and Savings distribution is created based on the user selections, and wherein

determining Cash-flow and Saving results such that the probability of reaching various goals can be determined and displayed graphically via the user interface to indicate the user'"'"'s probability of attaining various levels of success.

12. The system according to claim 11, where the determined probability of reaching a user goal is displayed graphically to the user as illustrated in a pie chart or other graphical representation.

13. The system according to claim 11, wherein the Cash-flow for multiple life phases can be gathered to build a dataset to which descriptive statistics can be applied.

14. A method for storing instructions that, when executed by a provided processor in a computing device enables a user to access an interactive game through a provided communications medium and using a provided user interface, the interactive game comprising:

one or more interactive inputs based on a series of user goals and user demographics, wherein said user goals are;

based on one or more financial goals, and wherein said financial goals are used to determine one or more interactive selections for the user, wherein the one more selections can include;

one or more educational and income goals,

one or more lifestyle and spending choices, and

one or more investment and entrepreneurial choices, and wherein the one or more interactive selections are based on one or more age ranges of the user;

said processor executing a series of processes for classifying the one or more interactive selections for the user as an Income or an Expense,

further classifying the one or more Income or Expense selections as analytic or probabilistic, wherein;

analytic input selections have a known or calculable quantity and are summarized for one or more life phases as selected by user, and

probabilistic input selections have an unknown quantity that can be approximated over time and are summarized for one or more life phases as selected by user, by randomly selecting from a distribution curve based on real world data, wherein

a random number generator is used to generate a random number that the computing device can apply to an inverse of the distribution curve to determine the probability of falling a particular point along an X-axis of the curve such that the probability of achieving a particular value on the X-axis can be determined;

repeating for one or more sufficient iterations until an intermediate or final distribution curve is filled such that for each iteration, a descriptive statistic can be determined for each probabilistic variable along the X-axis; and

using the descriptive statistics to calculate summarized Income, Expense, Savings and Cash-flow values over an appropriate number of iterations;

such that a Cash-flow and Savings distribution is created based on the user selections, and wherein

determining Cash-flow and Saving results such that the probability of reaching various goals can be determined and displayed graphically via the user interface to indicate the user'"'"'s probability of attaining various levels of success.

15. The method according to claim 14, wherein the Cash-flow for multiple lifetimes can be gathered to build a dataset to which descriptive statistics can be applied.

16. The method according to claim 14, wherein an investment or entrepreneurial choice includes developing passive income.

17. The method according to claim 14, wherein a financial goal includes avoiding interest based liabilities and debt unless it will fuel growth greater than the interest.

18. The method according to claim 14, wherein a financial goal includes developing multiple streams of income.

19. The method according to claim 14, wherein the one or more interactive inputs include a series of visual indicators.

20. The method according to claim 14, wherein the series of visual indicators can include actual graphical images of real lifestyle choices including type of home, type of car, and other expenses selectable by the user.