METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR NOWCASTING PRECIPITATION BASED ON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

• US 20140303893A1
• Filed: 04/04/2013
• Published: 10/09/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 04/04/2013
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Sky Motion Research, ULC
• Original Assignee: Sky Motion Research, Inc. (Accuweather Incorporated)
• Inventors: LeBlanc, Andre
• Application Number:
  US13/856,923
• Publication Number:
  US 20140303893A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/3
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 2203/00 Real-time site-specific personalized weather information, e.g. nowcasting
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 90/10 Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

Abstract

A system and method for generating nowcasts for a given location over a period. The system receives weather observations and predictions for the given location from a plurality of weather sources, and processes this information to determine a probability distribution of the type of precipitation (PType) and a probability distribution of the rate of precipitation (PRate) over a period. These two probability distributions may then be combined into a plurality of single probability distributions (PTypeRate forecasts) each indicating the probability of occurrence of a certain type of precipitation at a certain rate over a period over the given location.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method for generating weather forecast for a given period and a given territory, the method comprising:

receiving weather values for the given territory from one or more weather sources;

using the weather values, generating a probability distribution of precipitation type forecast (PType forecast) for the given period, the PType forecast comprising a number m of precipitation types and a probability associated with each type;

using the weather values, generating a probability distribution of precipitation rate forecast (PRate forecast) for the given period, the PRate forecast comprising a number n of precipitation rates and a probability associated with each rate;

combining the PType forecast for the given period and the PRate forecast for the given period to produce a number m*n of precipitation type-rate forecasts (PTypeRate forecasts), each PTypeRate forecast representing the probability of having a given type of precipitation at a given rate;

outputting one or more of the PTypeRate forecasts for display.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising, for each PTypeRate forecast, multiplying a first probability P1 associated with a given type of precipitation from the PType forecast by a second probability P2 associated with a given rate of precipitation from the PRate forecast to obtain a value P3 representing the probability of receiving the given type of precipitation at the given rate.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising receiving the weather values from a plurality of different weather sources.

4. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

generating an individual PType forecast from the weather values received from each weather source, thus generating a plurality of individual PType forecasts, and

using a probability aggregator, combining the plurality of individual PType forecasts into a final PType forecast.

5. The method of claim 4, further comprising:

generating an individual PRate forecast from the weather values received from each weather source, thus generating a plurality of individual PRate forecasts, and

using a probability aggregator, combining the plurality of individual PRate forecasts into a final PRate forecast.

6. The method of claim 4, wherein aggregating comprises performing weighted averaging, wherein a weight is assigned to each individual PRate forecast and/or PType forecast depending on the weather source associated with the PType forecast or PRate forecast.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining a probability that precipitation will not occur by summing the probabilities for all categories of PTypeRates that represent no precipitation.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining a probability that precipitation will occur by summing the probabilities for all categories of PTypeRates that represent precipitation.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

associating a textual description to one or a combination of PTypeRates; and

outputting the textual description for display on a user device.

10. The method of claim 9, further comprising:

combining two or more PTypeRate forecasts along a dimension, the dimension being one of;

probability, rate of precipitation, and type of precipitation;

associating a textual description to each combination of PTypeRate forecasts.

11. The method of claim 1, further comprising receiving a user input indicating the location of the given territory.

12. The method of claim 1, further comprising receiving a user input indicating the given period.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the given period comprises multiple time intervals, wherein the multiple time intervals have a fixed value.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein the fixed value is either one of 1 minute, 2 minutes, 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes and 60 minutes.

15. The method of claim 12, wherein the given period comprises multiple time intervals, wherein the multiple time intervals have variable values.

16. The method of claim 1, wherein receiving weather values comprises receiving at least a temperature profile for the given territory and generating the PType forecasts based on at least the temperature profile.

17. The method of claim 1, further comprising outputting different combinations of PTypeRate forecasts for display.

18. A computer implemented method for generating weather forecast for a given period and a given territory, the method comprising:

receiving weather values for the given territory from one or more weather sources;

using the weather values, generating a probability distribution of precipitation type forecast (PType forecast) for the given period, the PType forecast comprising a number m of precipitation types and a probability associated with each type;

using the weather values, generating a probability distribution of precipitation rate forecast (PRate forecast) for the given period, the PRate forecast comprising a number n of precipitation rates and a probability associated with each rate;

combining the PType forecast for the given period and the PRate forecast for the given period to produce a number z of precipitation type-rate forecasts (PTypeRate forecasts), the number z being equal to or less than m*n, wherein each PTypeRate forecast represents the probability of having a given type of precipitation at a given rate;

outputting the PTypeRate forecasts for display.

19. A device for generating a weather forecast for a given period and a given territory, the device comprising:

one or more processors;

a memory storing instructions for the one or more processors,

wherein when the instructions are executed by the one or more processors, the device is caused to;

receive weather values for the given territory from one or more weather sources;

generate, using the weather values, a probability distribution of precipitation type forecast (PType forecast) for the given period, wherein the PType forecast comprising a number m of precipitation types and a probability associated with each type;

generate, using the weather values, a probability distribution of precipitation rate forecast (PRate forecast) for the given period, the PRate forecast comprising a number n of precipitation rates and a probability associated with each rate;

combine the PType forecast for the given period and the PRate forecast for the given period to produce a number m*n of precipitation type-rate forecasts (PTypeRate forecasts), each PTypeRate forecast representing the probability of having a given type of precipitation at a given rate; and

output one or more of the PTypeRate forecasts for display.

20. A computer implemented method for generating weather forecast for a given period and a given territory, the method comprising:

receiving weather values for the given territory from one or more weather sources;

using the weather values, obtaining a forecasted precipitation type for the given period;

using the weather values, generating a probability distribution of precipitation rate forecast for the given period, the distribution comprising a number n of precipitation rates and a probability associated with each rate;

combining the forecasted precipitation type with the distribution to produce the number n of precipitation type-rate forecasts (PTypeRate forecasts) representing the probability of having the forecasted precipitation type at a given rate;

outputting one or more of the PTypeRate forecasts for display.

21. A system comprising a server and a remote device comprising a display and connected to the server via a communication network, wherein:

the server comprises one or more processors and a memory storing instructions, wherein when the instructions are executed, the server is caused to;

receive weather values for the given territory from one or more weather sources;

using the weather values, obtain a forecasted precipitation type for the given period;

using the weather values, generate a probability distribution of precipitation rate forecast for the given period, the distribution comprising a number n of precipitation rates and a probability associated with each rate;

combine the forecasted precipitation type with the distribution to produce the number n of precipitation type-rate forecasts (PTypeRate forecasts) representing the probability of having the forecasted precipitation type at a given rate;

output one or more of the PTypeRate forecasts for display on the remote device.