APPARATUS AND METHOD FOR PROVIDING ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIVE INDICATORS TO EMERGENCY RESPONSE MANAGERS

• US 20140324351A1
• Filed: 07/22/2013
• Published: 10/30/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 11/13/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Saint Louis University
• Original Assignee: Saint Louis University
• Inventors: Dannevik, William, Pasken, Robert W.
• Granted Patent: US 9,285,504 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/3
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/00 Meteorology
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G08B 21/10 responsive to calamitous events, e.g. tornados or earthquakes

Abstract

A method of predicting weather-exacerbated threats, said method comprising inputting localized weather measurement data into a weather threat prediction system; predicting future localized weather conditions based on said localized weather measurement data combined with modeling from large scale weather data including National Weather Service Data; inputting natural environment and infrastructure data into said weather threat prediction system; correlating said infrastructure data with said predicted future localized weather conditions; and determining a threat level index over a region, a threat level indicating an area having a certain probabilistic likelihood of being harmed by said future weather conditions.

Claims

1. A method for forecasting weather-related events comprising the steps of:

combining at a computer system initial large scale model domain boundary conditions based on large scale national weather data combined with local mesonet data from local mesonet weather sensors and forming a Numerical Forecasting Model parameterized and conditioned based on mesoscale data and local environmental condition data;

generating weather prediction data based on the parameterized and conditioned Numerical Forecasting Model; and

displaying the weather prediction data at a user interface,

where said weather sensors of the local mesonet include one or more of a stationery weather sensor station, a mobile weather sensor station, a RADAR station, and an un-manned aerial system borne weather sensor station and said weather sensors are geographically placed based on infrastructure data and regional environmental characteristic data.

2. The method as recited in claim 1, where displaying the weather prediction data includes transmitting and displaying graphics data wirelessly and remotely with respect to the computer system to a personal computing device illustrative of the weather prediction data and formatted for displaying on a personal computing device user interface.

3. A system for forecasting weather-related events comprising:

a network meteorological weather sensors including one or more of a stationery weather sensor station, a mobile weather sensor station, a RADAR station, and an un-manned aerial system borne weather sensor station and said weather sensors are geographically located based on infrastructure data and regional environmental characteristic data and communicably linked over a wide area network to a central server;

a computer system having a memory and one or more processors;

one or more processor executable programs stored in the memory and executed by the one or more processors, where the one or more programs include,

instructions for combining initial large scale model domain boundary conditions based on large scale national weather data combined with local mesonet data from the local mesonet weather sensors and forming a Numerical Forecasting Model parameterized and conditioned based on mesoscale data and local environmental conditions;

instructions for generating weather prediction data based on the parameterized and conditioned Numerical Forecasting Model; and

instructions for displaying the weather prediction data at a user interface.

4. The system as recited in claim 3, where instructions for displaying the weather prediction data includes instructions for transmitting and displaying graphics data wirelessly and remotely with respect to the computer system to a personal computing device illustrative of the weather prediction data and formatted for displaying on a personal computing device user interface.

5. A system for predicting weather-related threats, comprising:

a local mesonet network of meteorological weather monitoring stations having a plurality of monitoring stations communicably linked over a wide area network to a central server where each of said plurality of monitoring stations operable to transmit sensor data to said central server and where each of said plurality of monitoring stations are geographically place based on infrastructure data and regional environmental characteristic data;

a computing system communicably linked to said central server over said wide area network and having an initialization module adapted for initializing the boundary conditions for a EAS model domain, where said initialization module has a pre-processing sub-module operable to extract data from a geographic database to define the model domain lower boundary condition, a function operable to extract data imported from a large scale national database to define lateral boundary conditions, and a Metgrid function operable to transform data for the EAS model domain;

said computing system further comprising an ingestion module adapted for ingesting initial EAS model domain boundary conditions and combining with Local Mesonet data to get numerical forecasting model by importing Local Mesonet Data from the Local Mesonet and transformed by a sampling function into uniform data grid and storing the data grid;

said computing system further comprising a parameterization scheme module adapted for selecting and tuning a parameterization scheme of the numerical model based at least partially on Local Mesonet Data; and

said computing system further comprising a Prediction module adapted for generating weather prediction data based on the numerical model and outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface adapted for operator viewing.

6. The system as recited in claim 5, where the network meteorological weather monitoring stations include a stationery weather monitoring station mounted on existing infrastructure.

7. The system as recited in claim 5, where the network meteorological weather monitoring stations include a ground based mobile weather monitoring station mounted on a mobile vehicle.

8. The system as recited in claim 5, where the network of meteorological weather monitoring stations include a Doppler RADAR weather monitoring station mounted on existing infrastructure.

9. The system as recited in claim 5, where outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface includes outputting the weather prediction data wirelessly to a mobile device formatted for graphically displaying on the user interface of the mobile device.

15. The method as recited in claim 8, where outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface includes outputting the weather prediction data wirelessly to a remote mobile device formatted for graphically displaying on the user interface of the mobile device.

10. A method for predicting weather-related threats, comprising the steps of:

providing a mesoscale network meteorological weather monitoring stations by placing plurality of weather monitoring stations geographically based on infrastructure data and environmental data thereby forming a local Mesonet and communicably linking said plurality of monitoring stations over a wide area network to a central server;

transmitting sensor data from each of said plurality of monitoring stations to said central server and where each of said;

initializing the boundary conditions for a EAS model domain using a computing system having an initialization module adapted for initializing the boundary conditions for the EAS model domain;

pre-processing medium scale forecast data with a pre-processing sub-module of said initialization module;

extracting data from a geographic database to define the model domain lower boundary condition;

extracting data imported from a national weather service to define lateral boundary conditions;

transforming the extracted data from the geographic database and the national weather service for the EAS model domain;

Ingesting initial EAS model domain boundary conditions and combining with Local Mesonet to a large scale Numerical Forecasting model using the ingestion module of the computing system and importing Local Mesonet Data from the Local Mesonet and transformed by a sampling function into uniform data grid and storing;

selecting and tuning a parameterization scheme based at least partially on Local Mesonet Data using the parameterization scheme module of the computing system; and

generating weather prediction data based on the large scale Numerical Forecasting model and outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface adapted for operator viewing.

11. The method as recited in claim 10, where the plurality of monitoring stations include a stationery weather monitoring station mounted to existing infrastructure.

12. The method as recited in claim 11, where the plurality of weather monitoring stations include a Doppler RADAR.

13. The method as recited in claim 10, where the plurality of weather monitoring stations include ground based mobile weather monitoring stations.

14. The method as recited in claim 10, where the plurality of weather monitoring stations include an airborne weather monitoring station.

16. A computer system for predicting weather-related threats, comprising:

a computer system having a memory and one or more processors;

one or more processor executable programs stored in the memory and executed by the one or more processors, where the one or more programs include,

instructions for data ingesting and combining at a computer larger scale numerical weather forecast data with high spatial and high temporal resolution data from a local mesonet thereby creating real time a forecast model having higher spatial and temporal correlation factors between observed and predicted weather conditions;

quality control processing the data from the local mesonet by determining if data is within predetermined criteria including one or more of, sensor performance, expected data content, expected data range, temporal data continuity, spatial data consistency and data adjustments for infrastructure;

instructions for deriving meteorological fields using current and predicted meteorological fields including one or more of divergence, vorticity, moisture advection, wind velocity shear, wind velocity deformation, and gradient wind strength, thereby maximizing temporal and spatial resolution; and

instructions for generating weather prediction data based on quality controlled weather forecast mode and outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface for operator viewing.

17. The computer system of claim 16, where instructions for outputting weather prediction data includes instructions for wirelessly outputting graphical data illustrative of the weather prediction data to a remote mobile personal computing device formatted for displaying on the user interface of the mobile personal computing device.

18. The computer system of claim 16, where the local mesonet includes one or more of a Doppler RADAR weather monitoring station, a stationery weather monitoring station, a mobile weather monitoring station and an un-manned aerial system borne weather monitoring station.

19. A computer implemented method for providing environmentally predictive indicators and related threats, comprising the steps of:

assembling at the computer system meteorological sensor data from a plurality of monitoring stations communicably linked over a wide area network and placed geographically based on infrastructure data and natural environmental and man-made regional characteristic data, time averaging the meteorological sensor data over a one minute period, and transmitting the aggregate meteorological sensor data in a data package to a central server having program instructions where when said program instructions are executed are adapted to perform the steps of,

initializing lateral boundary conditions based on large scale numerical weather forecast data and lower boundary conditions based on climatological geographic data for an earth and atmosphere model domain,

combining model domain boundary conditions and sensor data transformed into a uniform data grid for implementing a forecasting model; and

generating weather prediction data based on the forecasting model and outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface for operator viewing.

20. The computer implemented method of claim 19, where instructions for outputting weather prediction data includes instructions for wirelessly outputting graphical data illustrative of the weather prediction data to a mobile personal computing device formatted for displaying on the user interface of the mobile personal computing device.

21. A computer implemented method, comprising the steps of:

receiving from a central server at a uniform time interval for meteorological sensor data;

receiving at the computer system the meteorological sensor data from a plurality of monitoring stations communicably linked over a wide area network and placed geographically based on one or more of infrastructure data and natural environmental and man-made regional characteristic data transmitted to the central server and said computer system having program instructions where when said program instructions are executed perform the steps of,

initializing real time lateral boundary conditions based on large scale numerical weather forecast data and lower boundary conditions based on climatological geographic data for an earth and atmosphere model domain, and incorporating data from the plurality of monitoring stations to improve real time lateral and lower boundary conditions of a forecasting model, and

combining model domain boundary conditions and sensor data transformed into a uniform data grid for implementing the forecasting model.

22. The computer implemented method as recited in claim 21, further comprising:

implementing the forecasting model from combining the model domain boundary conditions and sensor data; and

generating weather prediction data based on the forecasting model.

23. The computer implemented method as recited in claim 22 further comprising the steps of:

outputting weather prediction data to a user interface adapted for operator viewing.

24. The computer implemented method as recited in claim 23, where outputting weather prediction data includes outputting wirelessly to a mobile computing device, weather prediction data formatted for viewing on the personal viewing device.

25. A computer implemented method, comprising the steps of:

initializing at a computer lateral boundary conditions based on large scale numerical weather forecast data and lower boundary conditions based on climatological geographic data thereby implementing an earth and atmosphere model domain;

transforming into a uniform data grid sensor data from a local mesonet having a plurality of monitoring stations communicably linked over a wide area network and placed geographically based on infrastructure data and natural environmental and man-made regional characteristic data; and

combining the earth and atmosphere model domain boundary conditions and the sensor data collected from the local mesonet thereby implementing a forecasting model, and

combining one or more of static infrastructure data with the climatological geographic data and the meteorological sensor data to determine a threat index.

26. A system for predicting weather-related threats, comprising:

a network meteorological weather monitoring stations having a plurality of monitoring stations communicably linked over a wide area network to a central server where each of said plurality of locally spaced apart monitoring stations operable to transmit sensor data to said central server and where each of said plurality of monitoring stations are geographically place based on a type of local weather threat parameter, a type of local asset parameter, and a local condition parameter thereby forming a local Mesonet;

said central server having a memory and one or more processors, where one or more processor having executable programs stored in the memory and executed by the one or more processors, where the one or more programs include

instructions for transmitting sensor data and other weather data to a computing system communicably linked to said central server over said wide area network and having an initialization module adapted for initializing the boundary conditions for a model domain.

27. The system as recited in claim 26, where the plurality of monitoring stations includes one or more of a stationary weather sensor, a mobile weather sensor, a Doppler RADAR system, and an un-manned aerial system borne weather sensor.

28. A computer implemented method, comprising the steps of:

initializing at a computer lateral boundary conditions based on large scale numerical weather forecast data and lower boundary conditions based on climatological geographic data thereby implementing an earth and atmosphere model domain;

transforming into a uniform data grid sensor data from a local mesonet having a plurality of weather monitoring stations and a plurality of Doppler radar monitoring stations communicably linked over a wide area network and placed geographically based on one or more of infrastructure data and natural environmental and man-made regional characteristic data;

combining the earth and atmosphere model domain boundary conditions and the sensor data collected from the local mesonet thereby implementing a forecasting model;

inserting the wind radial velocity from the sensor data, and adjusting two other wind components with respect to a continuity equation and some mean quantities;

retrieving pressure and temperature perturbations; and

refining quality control, editing and analysis techniques thereby providing a more accurate three dimensional wind field recovered from the observed radial velocities and radar reflectivities; and

generating weather prediction data based on the forecasting model and outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface adapted for operating viewing.

29. The computer implemented method as recited in claim 28, where the plurality of weather monitoring stations includes an un-manned aerial system borne weather monitoring station.

30. A computer implemented method for providing environmentally predictive indicators and related threats, comprising the steps of:

assembling at a computer system meteorological sensor data from a plurality of Doppler radar monitoring stations and a plurality of weather monitoring stations communicably linked over a wide area network and placed geographically based on one or more of infrastructure data and natural environmental and man-made regional characteristic data and transmitting the meteorological sensor data to a central server having program instructions where when said program instructions are executed are adapted to perform the steps of,

combining at a computer larger scale numerical weather forecast data with high spatial and high temporal resolution data from the sensor data thereby initializing and creating boundary conditions for a forecast model having higher spatial and temporal correlation factors between observed and predicted weather conditions,

initializing lateral boundary conditions based on large scale numerical weather forecast data and lower boundary conditions based on climatological geographic data for an earth and atmosphere model domain, and

combining model domain boundary conditions and sensor data transformed into a uniform data grid and implementing a forecasting model; and

generating weather prediction data based on the forecasting model and outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface adapted for operator viewing.

31. The computer implemented method as recited in claim 30, where the plurality of weather monitoring stations include an airborne weather monitoring station.

32. The computer implemented method as recited in claim 31, where outputting the weather prediction data to a user interface includes wireless outputting graphical data to a mobile personal computing device illustrative of the weather prediction data.

33. A computer system for predicting weather-related threats, comprising:

a computer system having a memory and one or more processors;

one or more processor executable programs stored in the memory and executed by the one or more processors, where the one or more programs include,

instructions for combining at a computer larger scale numerical weather forecast data with high spatial and high temporal resolution data from a local mesonet including a local Doppler radar system and an airborne weather monitoring station, thereby initializing and creating boundary conditions for a forecast model having higher spatial and temporal correlation factors between observed and predicted weather conditions;

instructions for deriving three dimensional meteorological fields using current observed and predicted meteorological fields including three dimensional wind fields, wind perturbations and temperature perturbations; and

instructions for providing an inversion technique to compute realistic perturbation pressures and perturbation temperature fields, and error magnitudes in the recovered fields, therefore, can be used to predict wind field changes and wind loading over a time duration.

34. A method for forecasting weather-related events comprising the steps of:

combining at a computer system initial large scale model domain boundary conditions based on large scale national weather data combined with local mesonet data from local mesonet weather sensors and forming a Numerical Forecasting Model parameterized and conditioned based on mesoscale data and local environmental condition data;

generating at said computer weather prediction data based on the parameterized and conditioned Numerical Forecasting Model; and

displaying the weather prediction data at a user interface,

where said weather sensors of the local mesonet include one or more of a stationery weather sensor station, a mobile weather sensor station, a RADAR station, and an un-manned aerial system borne weather sensor station and said weather sensors are geographically placed based on infrastructure data and regional environmental characteristic data.

35. The method as recited in claim 34, where displaying the weather prediction data includes transmitting and displaying graphics data wirelessly and remotely with respect to the computer system to a personal computing device illustrative of the weather prediction data and formatted for displaying on a personal computing device user interface.

36. The method as recited in claim 35, further comprising the steps of:

generating an adjoint mesoscale numerical weather prediction model based on stationery weather sensor station data and large scale national weather data;

inputting into a constrained optimization model client specific threat map data, adjoint mesoscale numerical weather prediction model data, stationery weather sensor station data and UAS fleet location and compacity data; and

generating and transmitting UAS fleet flight and configuration data.

37. A system for forecasting weather-related events comprising:

a network meteorological weather sensors including one or more of a stationery weather sensor station, a mobile weather sensor station, a RADAR station, and an un-manned aerial system borne weather sensor station and said weather sensors are geographically located based on infrastructure data and regional environmental characteristic data and communicably linked over a wide area network to a central server;

a computer system having a memory and one or more processors;

one or more processor executable programs stored in the memory and executed by the one or more processors, where the one or more programs include,

instructions for combining initial large scale model domain boundary conditions based on large scale national weather data combined with local mesonet data from the local mesonet weather sensors and forming a Numerical Forecasting Model parameterized and conditioned based on mesoscale data and local environmental conditions;

instructions for generating weather prediction data based on the parameterized and conditioned Numerical Forecasting Model; and

instructions for displaying the weather prediction data at a user interface.

38. The system as recited in claim 37, where the one or more programs include,

instructions for, generating an adjoint mesoscale numerical weather prediction model based on stationery weather sensor station data and large scale national weather data;

instructions for inputting into a constrained optimization model client specific threat map data, adjoint mesoscale numerical weather prediction model data, stationery weather sensor station data and UAS fleet location and compacity data, and

instruction for generating and transmitting UAS fleet flight and configuration data.

39. The system as recited in claim 38, where instructions for displaying the weather prediction data includes instructions for transmitting and displaying graphics data wirelessly and remotely with respect to the computer system to a personal computing device illustrative of the weather prediction data and formatted for displaying on a personal computing device user interface.