WIND ENERGY FORECASTING METHOD WITH EXTREME WIND SPEED PREDICTION FUNCTION

• US 20140344209A1
• Filed: 07/30/2014
• Published: 11/20/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 08/23/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Institute Of Nuclear Energy Research Atomic Energy Council Executive Yuan
• Original Assignee: Institute Of Nuclear Energy Research Atomic Energy Council Executive Yuan
• Inventors: FANG, Hsin-Fa, CHEN, Ing-Jane
• Granted Patent: US 9,230,219 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: F05B 2260/821 Parameter estimation or prediction
• CPC Class Codes: F05B 2270/32 Wind speeds
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 17/18 for evaluating statistical data , e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis forecasting specially adapted for a specific administrative, business or logistic context G06Q10/04
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply

Abstract

A computer-executable method is executed by a CPU as the following steps of: obtaining an interested range in relation to a target typhoon and obtaining historical typhoons within the interested range from a wind and typhoon database; obtaining shortest distances from the respective historical typhoons to the target typhoon within the interested range; choosing a target ground grid point and obtaining normalized extreme wind speeds of the respective historical typhoons corresponding to the target ground grid point; obtaining extreme wind speeds probable for the target ground grid point by calculation according to the normalized extreme wind speeds and the highest wind speed of the center of the target typhoon; and arranging the extreme wind speeds in descending order, arranging the shortest distances corresponding to the respective extreme wind speeds, and obtaining the occurrence probability of the extreme wind speeds at the target ground grid point according to a formula.

Claims

1. A non-transient storage medium having a computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed, which is executed by a CPU as the following steps of:

obtaining an interested range in relation to a target typhoon serving as the center and obtaining a plurality of historical typhoons within the interested range from a wind and typhoon database;

obtaining a plurality of shortest distances from the respective historical typhoons to the target typhoon within the interested range;

choosing a target ground grid point and obtaining a plurality of normalized extreme wind speeds of the respective historical typhoons corresponding to the target ground grid point;

obtaining a plurality of extreme wind speeds probable for the target ground grid point by calculation according to the normalized extreme wind speeds and the highest wind speed of the center of the target typhoon; and

arranging the extreme wind speeds in descending order, arranging the shortest distances corresponding to the respective extreme wind speeds, and obtaining the occurrence probability of the extreme wind speeds at the target ground grid point according to a formula.

2. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 1, wherein the occurrence probability of the wind speed values of the normalized extreme wind speeds formed at the target ground grid point is based on the following formula:

the respective historical typhoons are at distances R1, R2, R3, . . . , Rn from the target typhoon, the ratio of the extreme wind speeds of the occurrence probabilities of the historical typhoons is

3. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 1, wherein, according to the normalized extreme wind speeds and the highest wind speed of the center of the target typhoon, the normalized extreme wind speeds of the respective historical typhoons corresponding to the target ground grid point and the highest wind speed of the center of the target typhoon are multiplied together to obtain the extreme wind speeds.

4. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 3, wherein each of the extreme wind speeds has the corresponding shortest distance of the historical typhoon.

5. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 1, wherein the computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed further comprises the following step of:

forming an occurrence probability distribution diagram according to the extreme wind speeds and the occurrence probabilities of the extreme wind speeds, and adding a trend curve to the occurrence probability distribution diagram to form an occurrence probability curve of extreme wind speed.

6. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 1, wherein the computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed further comprises the following step of:

modifying the occurrence probabilities of the extreme wind speeds occurring at the target ground grid point by a physical model to modify the target ground grid point to the height or position of a wind turbine.

7. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 6, wherein the physical model is a wind flow model to modify, through land topography and height, the wind speed and direction of the target ground grid point to the wind speed and direction of the wind turbine.

8. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 1, wherein the interested range is changed according to the state and position of the target typhoon.

9. A computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed, which is executed by a CPU as the following steps of:

obtaining an interested range in relation to a target typhoon serving as the center and obtaining a plurality of historical typhoons within the interested range from a wind and typhoon database;

obtaining a plurality of shortest distances from the respective historical typhoons to the target typhoon within the interested range;

choosing a target ground grid point and obtaining a plurality of normalized extreme wind speeds of the respective historical typhoons corresponding to the target ground grid point;

obtaining a plurality of extreme wind speeds probable for the target ground grid point by calculation according to the normalized extreme wind speeds and the highest wind speed of the center of the target typhoon; and

arranging the extreme wind speeds in descending order, arranging the shortest distances corresponding to the respective extreme wind speeds, and obtaining the occurrence probability of the extreme wind speeds at the target ground grid point according to a formula.

10. The computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed as recited in claim 9, wherein the occurrence probability of the wind speed values of the normalized extreme wind speeds formed at the target ground grid point is based on the following formula:

the respective historical typhoons are at distances R1, R2, R3, . . . , Rn from the target typhoon, the ratio of the occurrence probabilities of the extreme wind speeds of the historical typhoons is

11. The computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed as recited in claim 9, wherein, according to the normalized extreme wind speeds and the highest wind speed of the center of the target typhoon, the normalized extreme wind speeds of the respective historical typhoons corresponding to the target ground grid point and the highest wind speed of the center of the target typhoon are multiplied together to obtain the extreme wind speeds.

12. The non-transient storage medium as recited in claim 11, wherein each of the extreme wind speeds has the corresponding shortest distance of the historical typhoon.

13. The computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed as recited in claim 9, further comprising the following step of:

forming an occurrence probability distribution diagram according to the extreme wind speeds and the occurrence probabilities of the extreme wind speeds, and adding a trend curve to the occurrence probability distribution diagram to form an occurrence probability curve of extreme wind speed.

14. The computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed as recited in claim 9, further comprising the following step of:

modifying the occurrence probabilities of the extreme wind speeds occurring at the target ground grid point by a physical model to modify the target ground grid point to the height or position of a wind turbine.

15. The computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed as recited in claim 14, wherein the physical model is a wind flow model to modify, through land topography and height, the wind speed and direction of the target ground grid point to the wind speed and direction of the wind turbine.

16. The computer-executable method of predicting the occurrence probability of extreme wind speed as recited in claim 9, wherein the interested range is changed according to the state and position of the target typhoon.