Future Credit Score Projection

• US 20140365356A1
• Filed: 06/11/2013
• Published: 12/11/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 06/11/2013
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Fair Isaac Corporation
• Original Assignee: Fair Isaac Corporation
• Inventors: Gao, Lu, Lacounte, Brendan A., Dornhelm, Ethan J.
• Application Number:
  US13/915,527
• Publication Number:
  US 20140365356A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/38
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof

Abstract

The current subject matter provides models that enable a projection of credit scores at a specified future date as well as an estimation of a date when a credit score will reach a certain level. Related apparatus, systems, techniques and articles are also described.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method comprising:

receiving, by at least one programmable 23, processor, data characterizing a request for a credit score for a consumer at a future date;

receiving, by at least one programmable processor, data comprising values for each of a plurality of variables used by a predictive scoring model, to generate a credit score for the consumer, at least a portion of the variables characterizing an occurrence or non-occurrence of credit-related events associated with an individual within at least one historical first time window preceding a scoring date, the at least one first historical time window comprising a fixed number of days prior to and including the scoring date, the predictive model being trained using historical credit data derived from a population of individuals;

modifying, by at least one programmable processor, the values for at least one of the variables to only characterize the occurrence or non-occurrence of events within a second time window prior to and including the future date and comprising the fixed number of days, wherein the second time window is populated by events that are based upon an extrapolation of an average of historical events;

determining, by at least one programmable processor, using the modified values and the predictive model, a projected credit score at the future date; and

providing, by at least one programmable processor, data characterizing the projected future credit score.

2. The method as in claim 1, wherein providing data comprises at least one of:

displaying the data characterizing the projected future credit score, transmitting the data characterizing the projected future credit score, loading the data characterizing the projected future credit score into memory, and persisting the data characterizing the projected future credit score.

3. The method as in claim 1, wherein the predictive model comprises at least one of:

a scorecard model, a logistic regression model, and a neural network model.

4. The method as in claim 1, wherein the future date is a date having a pre-specified interval from a date for the request.

5. The method as in claim 1, further comprising:

receiving, via a graphical user interface, user-generated input specifying the future date.

6. A computer implemented method comprising:

receiving, by at least one programmable processor, data characterizing a request for a date at which a consumer will first have a specified credit score;

receiving, by at least one programmable processor, data comprising values for each of a plurality of variables used by a predictive scoring model, wherein the predictive model comprises at least one of;

a scorecard model, a logistic regression model, and a neural network model, to generate a current credit score for the consumer, at least a portion of the variables characterizing an occurrence or non-occurrence of credit-related events associated with an individual within at least one historical first time window preceding a scoring date, the at least one first historical time window comprising a fixed number of days prior to and including the scoring date, the predictive model being trained using historical credit data derived from a population of individuals;

recursively modifying, by at least one programmable processor, the values for at least one of the variables to only characterize the occurrence or non-occurrence of events within at least one second time window prior to and including a future date and comprising the fixed number of days, wherein the second time window is populated by events that are based upon an extrapolation of an average of historical events, and determine a credit score using the predictive model until such time that the current credit score for the consumer will first equal the specified credit score; and

providing, by at least one programmable processor, data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first equal the specified credit score.

7. The method as in claim 6, wherein providing data comprises at least one of:

displaying the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first equal the specified credit score, transmitting the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first equal the specified credit score, loading the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first equal the specified credit score, and persisting the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first equal the specified credit score.

8. The method as in claim 6, wherein the predictive model comprises at least one of:

a scorecard model, a logistic regression model, and a neural network model.

9. A computer implemented method comprising:

receiving, by at least one programmable processor, data characterizing a request for a date at which a credit score for a consumer increases by a specified amount;

receiving, by at least one programmable processor, data comprising values for each of a plurality of variables used by a predictive scoring model, wherein the predictive model comprises at least one of;

a scorecard model, a logistic regression model, and a neural network model, to generate a current credit score for the consumer, at least a portion of the variables characterizing an occurrence or non-occurrence of credit-related events associated with an individual within at least one historical first time window preceding a scoring date, the at least one first historical time window comprising a fixed number of days prior to and including the scoring date, the predictive model being trained using historical credit data derived from a population of individuals;

recursively modifying, by at least one programmable processor, the values for at least one of the variables to only characterize the occurrence or non-occurrence of events within a second time window prior to and including a future date and comprising the fixed number of days, wherein the second time window is populated by events that are based upon an extrapolation of an average of historical events, and determine a credit score using the predictive model until such time that the current credit score for the consumer will first increase by the specified amount; and

providing, by at least one programmable processor, data characterizing the future date at which the current credit score will first increase by the specified amount.

10. The method as in claim 9, wherein providing data comprises at least one of:

displaying the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first increase by the specified amount, transmitting the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first increase by the specified amount, loading the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first increase by the specified amount, and persisting the data characterizing the date at which the current credit score will first increase by the specified amount.

11. The method as in claim 9, wherein the predictive model comprises at least one of:

a scorecard model, a logistic regression model, and a neural network model.