GUIDING USES IN OPTIMIZATION-BASED PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

• US 20150032681A1
• Filed: 07/23/2013
• Published: 01/29/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 07/23/2013
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Mevissen, Martin, Van Den Heever, Susara, Verscheure, Olivier
• Application Number:
  US13/948,713
• Publication Number:
  US 20150032681A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/04 Inference or reasoning models

Abstract

A method, system, and computer program product are disclosed for guiding users in optimization-based planning under uncertainty. In one embodiment, the invention provides a method comprising identifying one or more characterizations of a specified uncertainty in a defined process; generating a set of plans based on the uncertainty characterization; and finding a new plan based on the existing set of plans, including identifying an added constraint, and finding a new plan that satisfies this added constraint. The new plan is analyzed to determine whether the new plan satisfies defined criteria; and when the new plan satisfies the defined criteria, the new plan is added to the set of plans. One of the plans is identified as a recommended plan for the defined process. In an embodiment, the recommended plan is identified based on a trade-off analysis of the plans using at least two defined aspects of the plans.

Claims

1. A method of guiding users in optimization based planning under uncertainty, comprising:

identifying one or more characterizations of a specified uncertainty in a defined process;

generating a set of plans, P based on the uncertainty characterization;

finding a new plan, p, based on said existing set of plans, including identifying an added constraint to improve said set of plans, and finding a new plan that satisfies said added constraint;

analyzing said new plan to determine whether said new plan satisfies defined criteria;

when said new plan satisfies the defined criteria, adding the new plan to the set of plans;

identifying one of the plans of the set of plans as a recommended plan for the defined process.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein said identifying one of the plans of the set of plans as a recommended plan includes performing a trade-off analysis of the plans in the set of plans using at least two defined aspects of the plans.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein said identifying one of the plans of the set of plans as a recommended plan further includes:

based on said trade-off analysis, removing selected ones of the plans from the set of plant to form a revised set of plans; and

identifying one of the plans of the revised set of plans as the recommended plan for the defined process.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the removing selected ones of the plans includes optimizing an output of each plan of the set of plans across alternative input data sets.

5. The method according to claim 2, wherein the performing the trade-off analysis includes presenting a visualization of the defined aspects of the plans.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the specified uncertainty is a given range for a given parameter.

7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the specified uncertainty is calculated by using historic data.

8. The method according to claim 1, wherein the generating a set of plans based on the uncertainty characterization includes creating a deterministic optimization model, and solving said model for each of a plurality of input data scenarios and each of a plurality of data ranges.

9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the generating a set of plans based on the uncertainty characterization includes solving one or more robust formulations of a deterministic optimization model based on the uncertainty characterization.

10. The method according to claim 1, wherein the added constraint includes one or more defined measures of robustness.

11. A system for guiding users on optimization based planning under uncertainty, comprising:

a mechanism to analyze a set of plans and to use results of the analysis to guide users in selecting one of the set of plans, based on robustness, feasibility and optimality;

a mechanism to visualize robustness of the plans in terms of optimality an feasibility;

a mechanism to analyze a sensitivity of the plans with respect to specified uncertain data, and to use the analysis to guide users in considering alternative data; and

a mechanism for adding a constraint to the set of plans and to generate a new plan based on said set of plans and satisfying said added constraint.

12. The system according to claim 11, wherein the mechanism to analyze the set of plans performs a trade-off analysis in terms of robustness and optimality.

13. The system according to claim 11, wherein the mechanism to visualize robustness receives results from the mechanism to analyze the set of plans and visualizes said results in interactive graphics.

14. The system according to claim 11, wherein the mechanism to analyze the sensitivity of the plans optimizes an outcome of the plans across alternative input data sets in order to calculate a sensitivity of the plans to changes in the input data.

15. The system according to claim 11, wherein the added constraint uses one or more defined measures of robustness.

16. An article of manufacture comprising:

at least one tangible compute readable device having computer readable program code logic tangibly embodied therein to guide users in optimization based planning under uncertainty, the computer readable program code logic, when executing on a computer;

generating a set of plans, P, based on one or more characterizations of a specified uncertainty in a defined process;

finding a new plan, p, based on said existing set of plans, including identifying an added constraint to improve said set of plans, and finding a new plan that satisfies said added constraint;

analyzing said new plan to determine whether said new plan satisfies defined criteria;

when said new plan satisfies the defined criteria, adding the new plan to the set of plans;

identifying one of the plans of the set of plans as a recommended plan for the defined process.

17. The article of manufacture according to claim 16, wherein said identifying one of the plans of the set of plans as a recommended plan includes performing a trade-off analysis of the plans in the set of plans using at least two defined aspects of the plans.

18. The article of manufacture according to claim 17, wherein said identifying one of the plans of the set of plans as a recommended plan further includes:

based on said trade-off analysis, removing selected ones of the plans from the set of plant to form a revised set of plans; and

identifying one of the plans of the revised set of plans as the recommended plan for the defined process.

19. The article of manufacture according to claim 18, wherein the removing selected ones of the plans includes optimizing an output of each plan of the set of plans across alternative input data sets.

20. The article of manufacture according to claim 16, wherein the generating a set of plans based on the uncertainty characterization includes creating a deterministic optimization model, and solving said model for each of a plurality of input data scenarios and each of a plurality of data ranges.