METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR OPTIMIZING PROFIT IN PREDICTIVE SYSTEMS
First Claim
1. A computer implemented method for determining when to perform maintenance events, the method comprising:
- determining a first cost of false positives and a second cost of missed true positives;
determining a Receive Operating Characteristic (ROC) of a prediction model for an occurrence of one or more maintenance events;
generating a survival function from the prediction model for the occurrence of an event;
determining an operational area on the ROC based on the first costs and second costs;
determining a threshold from the ROC, the operational area and an optimal point and applying the threshold to the survival function and prediction horizon; and
triggering a maintenance event based on the threshold.
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Abstract
Techniques are disclosed for methods and apparatuses for forming for determining when to perform maintenance events. The technique comprises determining a first cost of false positives and a second cost of missed true positives. A Receive Operating Characteristic (ROC) of a prediction model is determined for the occurrence of an event. A survival function and prediction horizon is generated from the prediction model for the occurrence of an event. The operational area on the ROC is determined based on the first costs and second costs. A threshold is determined from the ROC and is applied to the survival function and prediction horizon. A maintenance event is triggered based on the threshold.
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Citations
21 Claims
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1. A computer implemented method for determining when to perform maintenance events, the method comprising:
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determining a first cost of false positives and a second cost of missed true positives; determining a Receive Operating Characteristic (ROC) of a prediction model for an occurrence of one or more maintenance events; generating a survival function from the prediction model for the occurrence of an event; determining an operational area on the ROC based on the first costs and second costs; determining a threshold from the ROC, the operational area and an optimal point and applying the threshold to the survival function and prediction horizon; and triggering a maintenance event based on the threshold. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
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11. A computer-readable storage medium storing a program, which, when executed by a processor performs an operation for determining when to perform maintenance events, the operation comprising:
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determining a first cost of false positives and a second cost of missed true positives; determining a Receive Operating Characteristic (ROC) of a prediction model for an occurrence of one or more maintenance events; generating a survival function from the prediction model for the occurrence of an event; determining an operational area on the ROC based on the first costs and second costs; determining a threshold from the ROC, the operational area and an optimal point and applying the threshold to the survival function and prediction horizon; and triggering a maintenance event based on the threshold. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
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21-30. -30. (canceled)
Specification