RULE TO CONSTRAINT TRANSLATOR FOR BUSINESS APPLICATION SYSTEMS

• US 20150058078A1
• Filed: 08/26/2013
• Published: 02/26/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 08/26/2013
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: Ehrenberg, Michael, Skrivan, Samuel, Kohn, Wolf
• Application Number:
  US14/010,077
• Publication Number:
  US 20150058078A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202

Abstract

A collection of rules are translated into a mathematical constraint model for a business application to effectively encode the knowledge, apply the model, and suggest results in a highly consistent, highly performant manner. An integrated feedback mechanism enables the system to learn weights and relationships between related rules that may not be obvious to the knowledge workers and to detect the emergence of new factors for adjustments to the model. Constraints that may affect the outcome of the optimization may be considered instead of all constraints allowing the optimizer to run much more quickly. Parallelism may be enabled allowing execution of multiple optimization processes to evaluate multiple scenarios. Furthermore, outcome of the optimizations may be explained back to the user by providing the constraints that were considered.

Claims

1. A method executed on a computing device for employing rule-to-constraint translation in forecast optimization, the method comprising:

generating one or more model parameters at offline trainers based on historical data and one or more data rules;

building a forecast model based on the model parameters;

generating a base forecast using the forecast model based on current state data; and

updating the base forecast based on one or more forecast rules.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the forecast is for demand prediction in a business environment.

3. The method of claim 2, further comprising:

generating one or more of an inventory state based on the updated demand forecast and inventory rules and a profit state based on the updated demand forecast and profit rules.

4. The method of claim 3, further comprising:

providing one or more of the updated demand forecast, the inventory state, and the profit state to a business application.

5. The method of claim 2, further comprising one of:

automatically generating the one or more forecast rules and receiving the one or more forecast rules from a user.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

enabling parallel execution of multiple scenarios in forecast optimization.

7. The method of claim 6, further comprising:

employing the one or more forecast rules in providing feedback to a user about the forecast optimization.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the historical data includes one or more of point of sale data, orders, and inventory data.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the forecast model includes one of a generalized Kalman model and a probabilistic differential inclusion.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the business environment includes one of an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system, a Customer Relationship Management (CRM) system, and a Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) system.

11. A computing device configured to employ rule-to-constraint translation in demand forecast optimization, the computing device comprising:

a memory;

a processor coupled to the memory, the processor executing a state abstract module (SAM) in conjunction with instructions stored in the memory, wherein the SAM is configured to;

generate one or more model parameters at offline trainers based on historical data and one or more data rules;

build a demand forecast model based on the model parameters;

generate a base demand forecast using the forecast model based on current state data;

update the base demand forecast based on one or more forecast rules;

generate one or more of an inventory state based on the updated demand forecast and inventory rules and a profit state based on the updated demand forecast and profit rules; and

provide one or more of the updated demand forecast, the inventory state, and the profit state to a business application.

12. The computing device of claim 11, wherein the SAM is further configured to:

provide demand forecast states to an order model generator to generate an order model and one or more criteria for order generation using order model rules.

13. The computing device of claim 12, wherein the order model generator is further configured to:

receive one or more criteria rules; and

apply the criteria rules to the order model and criteria received from the order model generator to generate orders.

14. The computing device of claim 13, wherein the SAM is further configured to:

assign weights to the one or more forecast rules based on each forecast rule'"'"'s impact on order performance.

15. The computing device of claim 14, wherein the SAM is further configured to:

order the forecast rules based on the weights.

16. The computing device of claim 11, wherein the SAM is further configured to:

one of automatically generate and receive the forecast rules based on one or more of a timing of the demand, an external event, a weather condition, and a detected change in consumer sentiment.

17. The computing device of claim 11, wherein the SAM is further configured to:

display forecast optimization results to a user along with the forecast rules; and

enable the user to execute multiple optimization scenarios in parallel.

18. A computer-readable memory device with instructions stored thereon for employing rule-to-constraint translation in demand forecast optimization, the instructions comprising:

generating one or more model parameters at offline trainers based on historical data and one or more data rules;

building a demand forecast model based on the model parameters;

generating a base demand forecast using the forecast model based on current state data;

updating the base demand forecast based on one or more forecast rules, wherein the forecast rules are one of automatically generated and received from a user;

generating one or more of an inventory state based on the updated demand forecast and inventory rules and a profit state based on the updated demand forecast and profit rules; and

providing one or more of the updated demand forecast, the inventory state, and the profit state to a business application.

19. The computer-readable memory device of claim 18, wherein the instructions further comprise:

generating an order model and one or more criteria based on updated demand forecast states and one or more order model rules; and

applying one or more criteria rules to the order model and criteria to generate orders.

20. The computer-readable memory device of claim 18, wherein the instructions further comprise:

integrating a feedback mechanism to forecast optimization in order to train users about weights and relationships between related forecast rules.