PREDICTING OUTCOMES OF A MODELED SYSTEM USING DYNAMIC FEATURES ADJUSTMENT

• US 20150161549A1
• Filed: 12/05/2013
• Published: 06/11/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 12/05/2013
• Status: Active Application

• Current Assignee: Adobe Inc.
• Original Assignee: Adobe Systems Incorporated (Adobe Inc.)
• Inventors: Modarresi, Kourosh
• Application Number:
  US14/097,998
• Publication Number:
  US 20150161549A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0639 Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/067 Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

Techniques are disclosed for predicting outcomes of a system modeled on analytical data related to website-related metrics by dynamically adjusting one or more input or output variables. A regularized singular value decomposition technique can be used to estimate missing data. The completed data set can be used to model the performance of the website and to predict various outcomes by changing one or more of the input or output variables. The effect of varying one or more input variables on an output variable can be computed using regression analysis and/or a Random Forests® framework to estimate the relationships between the variables in the model. The effect of specific changes to one or more input variables on one or more output variables can be computed. The amount of change to an input variable needed to achieve a specific change in an output variable can be computed using regression analysis.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving, from a database in electronic communication with a processor, analytical data representing a plurality of website metric variables;

designating one of the variables as an output variable and each of the remaining variables as input variables;

computing, by the processor, first result data representing a quantifiable effect of one of the input variables on the output variable relative to at least one of the other input variables based on the analytical data; and

presenting, via a graphical user interface, the first result data in human readable form.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

computing, by the processor, second result data representing a magnitude of change of the output variable caused by a predicted adjustment of the one or more input variables using linear regression; and

presenting, via the graphical user interface, the second result data in human readable form.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

computing, by the processor, third result data representing a determinant adjustment of the one or more input variables needed to affect a desired change in the output variable using linear regression; and

presenting, via the graphical user interface, the third result data in human readable form.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the analytical data includes at least one missing value, and wherein the method further comprises computing the at least one missing value based on non-missing values in the analytical data using a regularized singular value decomposition.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein computing the first result data includes computing a magnitude of increase in an error of the output variable resulting from a perturbation of each of the input variables using decision tree learning.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein computing the first result data includes computing a magnitude of increase in an error of the output variable resulting from a perturbation of each of the input variables using linear regression.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the human readable form includes at least one of a chart, table and graph.

8. A system comprising:

a storage;

a display configured to provide a graphical user interface; and

a processor operatively coupled to the storage and the display, the processor configured to execute instructions stored in the storage that when executed cause the processor to carry out a process comprising;

receiving, from a database in electronic communication with the processor, analytical data representing a plurality of website metric variables;

designating one of the variables as an output variable and each of the remaining variables as input variables;

computing first result data representing a quantifiable effect of one of the input variables on the output variable relative to at least one of the other input variables based on the analytical data; and

presenting, via the graphical user interface, the first result data in human readable form.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the process further comprises:

computing second result data representing a magnitude of change of the output variable caused by a predicted adjustment of the one or more input variables using linear regression; and

displaying, via the graphical user interface, the second result data in human readable form.

10. The system of claim 8, wherein the process further comprises:

computing third result data representing a determinant adjustment of the one or more input variables needed to affect a desired change in the output variable using linear regression; and

presenting, via the graphical user interface, the third result data in human readable form.

11. The system of claim 8, wherein the analytical data includes at least one missing value, and wherein the process further comprises computing the at least one missing value based on non-missing values in the analytical data using a regularized singular value decomposition.

12. The system of claim 8, wherein computing the first result data includes computing a magnitude of increase in an error of the output variable resulting from a perturbation of each of the input variables using decision tree learning.

13. The system of claim 8, wherein computing the first result data includes computing a magnitude of increase in an error of the output variable resulting from a perturbation of each of the input variables using linear regression.

14. The system of claim 8, wherein the human readable form includes at least one of a chart, table and graph.

15. A computer-implemented method comprising:

receiving, from a database in electronic communication with a processor, analytical data representing a plurality of website metric variables;

estimating at least one missing value in the analytical data based on non-missing values in the analytical data using a regularized singular value decomposition;

designating one of the variables as an output variable and each of the remaining variables as input variables;

evaluating, by the processor, a quantifiable effect of one of the input variables on the output variable relative to at least one of the other input variables based on the analytical data;

evaluating, by the processor, a magnitude of change of the output variable caused by a predicted adjustment of the one or more input variables using linear regression; and

determining, by the processor, a determinant adjustment of the one or more input variables needed to affect a desired change in the output variable using linear regression.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein evaluating the quantifiable effect of one of the input variables on the output variable includes computing a magnitude of increase in an error of the output variable resulting from a perturbation of each of the input variables using decision tree learning.

17. The method of claim 15, wherein evaluating the quantifiable effect of one of the input variables on the output variable includes computing a magnitude of increase in an error of the output variable resulting from a perturbation of each of the input variables using linear regression.

18. The method of claim 15, wherein the regularized singular value decomposition comprises:

replacing, by the processor, the at least one missing value with a median of the non-missing values to create a revised set of analytical data;

computing, by the processor, a singular value decomposition of the revised set of analytical data;

selecting, by the processor, the largest k singular values of the singular value decomposition and singular vectors corresponding to the largest k singular values to create a K data matrix;

ranking, by the processor, the K data matrix; and

comparing the revised set of analytical data to the K data matrix.

19. The method of claim 18, further comprising repeating the acts of computing the singular value decomposition, selecting the largest k singular values, ranking the K data matrix and comparing the revised set of analytical data to the K data matrix are repeated until the comparison yields a convergence of values.

20. The method of claim 15, further comprising presenting, via a graphical user interface, at least one of the quantifiable effect of one of the input variables on the output variable, the magnitude of change of the output variable caused by a predicted adjustment of the one or more input variables, and the determinant adjustment of the one or more input variables needed to affect a desired change in the output variable in human readable form.