Traffic-Volume Prediction Device and Method
First Claim
1. A traffic-volume prediction device that predicts a traffic volume between points using travelling locus data of a vehicle collected in advance, comprising:
- a network creation device that extracts principal intersections based on a proportion of a maximum ramification number to a number passing through a traveling locus between intersections on a travel route in the travelling locus data and creates a simple network connecting the principal intersections one another,a model creation device that calculates a utility of a route between the principal intersections based on a property value between the principal intersections and estimates a parameter of a route selection model for evaluating a selection probability at each principal intersection based on the utility, anda traffic-volume assignment device that calculates the selection probability of selecting the route between the principal intersections based on the estimated parameter of the route selection model and distributes the traffic volume to the route for predicting the traffic demand based on the selection probability.
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Abstract
Because a route selection model for traffic demand prediction of selecting a route from among travel routes in probe data cannot include other routes than the travel route in the probe data, it is not possible to predict a traffic volume on the route that has not been traveled. A traffic-volume prediction device according to the invention includes a simple-network creation device (130) that makes a simple network connecting principal intersections extracted from travelling loci in the collected probe data, a model creation device (140) that determines a utility between the principal intersections based on the data of the travelling loci and calculates a selection probability for each principal intersection based on the utility, and a traffic-volume assignment device (160) that distributes a traffic volume to the routes between the principal intersections according to the selection probability and thereby uses it as the traffic volume for each route candidate to be a traffic demand prediction object.
37 Citations
8 Claims
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1. A traffic-volume prediction device that predicts a traffic volume between points using travelling locus data of a vehicle collected in advance, comprising:
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a network creation device that extracts principal intersections based on a proportion of a maximum ramification number to a number passing through a traveling locus between intersections on a travel route in the travelling locus data and creates a simple network connecting the principal intersections one another, a model creation device that calculates a utility of a route between the principal intersections based on a property value between the principal intersections and estimates a parameter of a route selection model for evaluating a selection probability at each principal intersection based on the utility, and a traffic-volume assignment device that calculates the selection probability of selecting the route between the principal intersections based on the estimated parameter of the route selection model and distributes the traffic volume to the route for predicting the traffic demand based on the selection probability. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4)
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5. A traffic-volume prediction method of predicting a traffic volume between points using travelling locus data of a vehicle collected in advance, comprising the steps of:
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network creation processing of extracting principal intersections based on a proportion of a maximum ramification number to a number passing through a traveling locus between intersections on a travel route in the travelling locus data and creating a simple network connecting the principal intersections one another, model creation processing of calculating a utility of a route between the principal intersections based on a property value between the principal intersections based on the travelling locus data and estimating a parameter of a route selection model for evaluating a selection probability at each principal intersection based on the utility, and traffic-volume assignment processing of calculating the selection probability of selecting the route between the principal intersections based on the parameter of the route selection model estimated at the model creation processing and distributing the traffic volume to the route for predicting the traffic demand based on the selection probability. - View Dependent Claims (6, 7, 8)
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Specification