DEMAND RESPONSE AGGREGATION OPTIMIZATION

• US 20150213466A1
• Filed: 01/24/2014
• Published: 07/30/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 01/24/2014
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Fujitsu Limited
• Original Assignee: Fujitsu Limited
• Inventors: MIRZAZAD BARIJOUGH, Sanam, CHEN, Wei-Peng
• Application Number:
  US14/163,964
• Publication Number:
  US 20150213466A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/00 Administration; Management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

An example embodiment includes a method of predicting demand response event profitability. The method includes determining demand flexibility uncertainty for multiple sites based on historical data pertaining to demand flexibilities of the sites. The method also includes clustering the plurality of sites into one or more groups based on the demand flexibility uncertainty. The method also includes solving one or more group-specific formulations for group-specific parameters that result in a specific profitability outcome. The one or more group-specific formulations are associated with the one or more groups. The method also includes predicting a demand response (DR) event profitability based on the group-specific parameters. The method further includes determining one or more system parameters that result in a profitable DR event based on the group-specific parameters.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

determining demand flexibility uncertainty for a plurality of sites based on historical data pertaining to demand flexibility of the plurality of sites;

clustering the plurality of sites into one or more groups based on the demand flexibility uncertainty;

solving one or more group-specific formulations for group-specific parameters that result in a specific profitability outcome, the one or more group-specific formulations being associated with the one or more groups;

predicting a demand response (DR) event profitability based on the group-specific parameters; and

determining one or more system parameters that result in a profitable DR event based on the group-specific parameters.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the one or more groups include:

a first group including a first subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty is about zero;

a second group including a second subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty fits a single probability distribution;

a third group including a third subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty fits a set of probability distributions; and

a fourth group including a fourth subset of the plurality of sites in which demand flexibilities of the fourth subset belong to a set of demand flexibilities.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein:

a group-specific formulation associated with the first group includes a profitability maximizing formulation;

a group-specific formulation associated with the second group includes a Monte-Carlo analysis of the profitability maximizing formulation for random demand flexibilities generated according to the probability distribution;

a group-specific formulation associated with the third group includes a hedge against worst-case expected profitability resulting from the set of probability distributions; and

a group-specific formulation associated with the fourth group includes a best solution of worst-case profitability formulation resulting from the set of demand flexibilities.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein:

a group-specific formulation associated with the first group includes;

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the determining the uncertainty of the demand flexibility of the plurality of sites includes:

determining whether the demand flexibility uncertainty of a site of the plurality of sites is known;

in response to the demand flexibility uncertainty of the site being known, outputting the demand flexibility of the site;

in response to the demand flexibility uncertainty of the site not being known, collecting samples of the demand flexibility pertaining to the site and determining whether a number of the samples is larger than a particular threshold;

in response to the number of the samples being smaller than the particular threshold, outputting limits of demand flexibility variations of the site;

in response to the number of the samples being larger than the particular threshold, determining whether a single distribution fits the samples;

in response to a single distribution fitting the samples, outputting probability distribution parameters of the single distribution that fits the samples; and

in response to a single distribution not fitting the samples, outputting one or more common characteristics of a set of probability distributions that fit the samples.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the DR event profitability includes a maximum achievable profit value, a minimum achievable profit value and a probability of obtaining a profit value between the maximum achievable profit value and the minimum achievable profit value.

7. The method of claim 6, further comprising:

receiving a selection of a particular profit value between the maximum achievable profit value and the minimum achievable profit value; and

further predicting a probability of obtaining a profit that is less than the particular profit value.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the clustering includes clustering the plurality of sites into a single group based on disregarding the demand flexibility uncertainty; and

a group-specific formulation associated with the single group includes a profitability maximizing formulation.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising identifying a subset of the plurality of sites to include in a DR event based on one or more of the predicted DR event profitability and the group-specific parameters.

10. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining whether to participate in a DR event based on one or more of the predicted DR event profitability and the group-specific parameters.

11. A non-transitory computer-readable medium having encoded therein programming code executable by a processor to perform operations comprising:

determining demand flexibility uncertainty for a plurality of sites based on historical data pertaining to demand flexibility of the plurality of sites;

clustering the plurality of sites into one or more groups based on the demand flexibility uncertainty;

solving one or more group-specific formulations for group-specific parameters that result in a specific profitability outcome, the one or more group-specific formulations being associated with the one or more groups;

predicting a demand response (DR) event profitability based on the group-specific parameters; and

determining one or more system parameters that result in a profitable DR event based on the group-specific parameters.

12. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11, wherein the one or more groups include:

a first group including a first subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty is about zero;

a second group including a second subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty fits a single probability distribution;

a third group including a third subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty fits a set of probability distributions; and

a fourth group including a fourth subset of the plurality of sites in which demand flexibilities of the fourth subset belong to a set of demand flexibilities.

13. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 12, wherein:

a group-specific formulation associated with the first group includes a profitability maximizing formulation;

a group-specific formulation associated with the second group includes a Monte-Carlo analysis of the profitability maximizing formulation for random demand flexibilities generated according to the probability distribution;

a group-specific formulation associated with the third group includes a hedge against worst-case expected profitability resulting from the set of probability distributions; and

a group-specific formulation associated with the fourth group includes a best solution of worst-case profitability formulation resulting from the set of demand flexibilities.

14. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 12, wherein:

a group-specific formulation associated with the first group includes;

15. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11, wherein the determining the uncertainty of the demand flexibility of the plurality of sites includes:

determining whether the demand flexibility uncertainty of a site of the plurality of sites is known;

in response to the demand flexibility uncertainty of the site being known, outputting the demand flexibility of the site;

in response to the demand flexibility uncertainty of the site not being known, collecting samples of the demand flexibility pertaining to the site and determining whether a number of the samples is larger than a particular threshold;

in response to the number of the samples being smaller than the particular threshold, outputting limits of demand flexibility variations of the site;

in response to the number of the samples being larger than the particular threshold, determining whether a single distribution fits the samples;

in response to a single distribution fitting the samples, outputting probability distribution parameters of the single distribution that fits the samples; and

in response to a single distribution not fitting the samples, outputting one or more common characteristics of a set of probability distributions that fit the samples.

16. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11, wherein the DR event profitability includes a maximum achievable profit value, a minimum achievable profit value and a probability of obtaining a profit value between the maximum achievable profit value and the minimum achievable profit value.

17. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 16, wherein the operations further comprise:

receiving a selection of a particular profit value between the maximum achievable profit value and the minimum achievable profit value; and

further predicting a probability of obtaining a profit that is less than the particular profit value.

18. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11, wherein:

the clustering includes clustering the plurality of sites into a single group based on disregarding the demand flexibility uncertainty; and

a group-specific formulation associated with the single group includes a profitability maximizing formulation.

19. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11, wherein the operations further comprise identifying a subset of the plurality of sites to include in a DR event based on one or more of the predicted DR event profitability and the group-specific parameters.

20. The non-transitory computer-readable medium of claim 11, wherein the operations further comprise determining whether to participate in a DR event based on one or more of the predicted DR event profitability and the group-specific parameters.

21. A system, comprising:

a processor; and

a non-transitory computer-readable medium communicatively coupled to the processor and having encoded therein programming code executable by the processor to perform operations comprising;

determining demand flexibility uncertainty for a plurality of sites based on historical data pertaining to demand flexibility of the plurality of sites;

clustering the plurality of sites into one or more groups based on the demand flexibility uncertainty;

solving one or more group-specific formulations for group-specific parameters that result in a specific profitability outcome, the one or more group-specific formulations being associated with the one or more groups;

predicting a demand response (DR) event profitability based on the group-specific parameters; and

determining one or more system parameters that result in a profitable DR event based on the group-specific parameters.

22. The system of claim 21, wherein the one or more groups include:

a first group including a first subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty is about zero;

a second group including a second subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty fits a single probability distribution;

a third group including a third subset of the plurality of sites in which the demand flexibility uncertainty fits a set of probability distributions; and

a fourth group including a fourth subset of the plurality of sites in which demand flexibilities of the fourth subset belong to a set of demand flexibilities.

23. The system of claim 22, wherein:

a group-specific formulation associated with the first group includes a profitability maximizing formulation;

a group-specific formulation associated with the second group includes a Monte-Carlo analysis of the profitability maximizing formulation for random demand flexibilities generated according to the probability distribution;

a group-specific formulation associated with the third group includes a hedge against worst-case expected profitability resulting from the set of probability distributions; and

a group-specific formulation associated with the fourth group includes a best solution of worst-case profitability formulation resulting from the set of demand flexibilities.