Future Reliability Prediction Based on System Operational and Performance Data Modelling

• US 20150294048A1
• Filed: 04/11/2015
• Published: 10/15/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 04/11/2014
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Company (Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG)
• Original Assignee: Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Company (Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft AG)
• Inventors: Jones, Richard B.
• Granted Patent: US 10,409,891 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 17/18 for evaluating statistical data , e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis forecasting specially adapted for a specific administrative, business or logistic context G06Q10/04
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2111/10 Numerical modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: Y02P 90/845 Inventory and reporting systems for greenhouse gases [GHG]

Abstract

Systems, methods, and apparatuses for improving future reliability prediction of a measurable system by receiving operational and performance data, such as maintenance expense data, first principle data, and asset reliability data via an input interface associated with the measurable system. A plurality of category values may be generated that categorizes the maintenance expense data by a designated interval using a maintenance standard that is generated from one or more comparative analysis models associated with the measureable system. The estimated future reliability of the measurable system is determined based on the asset reliability data and the plurality of category values and the results of the future reliability are displayed on an output interface.

Claims

1. A system for modelling future reliability of a facility based on operational and performance data, comprising:

an input interface configured to;

receive maintenance expense data corresponding to a facility;

receive first principle data corresponding to the facility; and

receive asset reliability data corresponding to the facility;

a processor coupled to a non-transitory computer readable medium, wherein the non-transitory computer readable medium comprises instructions when executed by the processor causes the apparatus to;

obtain one or more comparative analysis models associated with the facility;

obtain a maintenance standard that generates a plurality of category values that categorizes the maintenance expense data by a designated interval based upon at least the maintenance expense data, the first principle data, and the one or more comparative analysis models; and

determine an estimated future reliability of the facility based on the asset reliability data and the plurality of category values; and

an user interface configured to display the results of the estimated future reliability.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the asset reliability data is Equivalent Forced Outage Rate data.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein the instructions, when executed by the processor, further causes the apparatus to compile the maintenance standard and asset reliability data into a complied data file.

4. The system of claim 3, wherein the instructions, when executed by the processor, further causes the apparatus to:

generate a categorized time based maintenance expense data based upon at least the compiled data file; and

generate a categorized time based reliability data based upon at least the compiled data file.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein generating the categorized time based maintenance expense data comprises arranging the category values according to the one or more time intervals for the plurality of other facilities.

6. The system of claim 4, wherein generating the categorized time based reliability data comprises arranging the reliability data values according to the one or more time intervals for the plurality of other facilities.

7. The system of claim 1, wherein a future reliability interval of the estimated future reliability is based upon the amount of maintenance expense data, asset reliability data, and first principle data.

8. The system of claim 1, wherein the maintenance standard normalizes the maintenance expense data.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein normalizing the maintenance expense data comprising generating a periodic maintenance spending divisor for a time period.

10. The system of claim 1, wherein displaying the results of the future reliability comprises displaying the asset reliability data according to the plurality of category values in a graph.

11. A method for modelling future reliability of a measurable system based on operational and performance data, comprising:

receiving maintenance expense data via an input interface associated with a measurable system;

receiving first principle data via an input interface associated with the measureable system;

receiving asset reliability data via an input interface associated with the measureable system;

generating, using a processor, a plurality of category values that categorizes the maintenance expense data by a designated interval using a maintenance standard that is generated from one or more comparative analysis models associated with the measureable system;

determining, using a processor, an estimated future reliability of the measureable system based on the asset reliability data and the plurality of category values; and

outputting the results of the estimated future reliability using an output interface.

12. The method of claim 11, further comprising generating the maintenance standard using the maintenance expense data and the first principle data.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the maintenance standard generates a normalize maintenance expense data from the maintenance expense data and the one or more comparative analysis model.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein the maintenance standard uses a periodic maintenance spending divisor to generate the normalize maintenance expense.

15. The method of claim 11, further comprising:

compiling the maintenance standard and asset reliability data into a compiled data file;

generating a categorized time based maintenance expense data based upon at least the compiled data file; and

generating a categorized time based reliability data based upon at least the compiled data file.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein generating the categorized time based maintenance expense data comprises arranging the category values according to the one or more time intervals for the plurality of other facilities.

17. The apparatus of claim 15, wherein generating the categorized time based reliability data comprises arranging the reliability data values according to the one or more time intervals for the plurality of other facilities.

18. An apparatus for modelling future reliability of an equipment asset based on operational and performance data, comprising:

an input interface comprising a receiving device configured to;

receive maintenance expense data corresponding to an equipment asset;

receive first principle data corresponding to the equipment asset;

receive asset reliability data corresponding to the equipment asset;

a processor coupled to a non-transitory computer readable medium, wherein the non-transitory computer readable medium comprises instructions when executed by the processor causes the apparatus to;

generate a plurality of category values that categorizes the maintenance expense data by a designated interval from a maintenance standard; and

determine an estimated future reliability of the facility comprising estimated future reliability data based on the asset reliability data and the plurality of category values; and

an output interface comprising a transmission device configured to transmit a processed data set that comprises the estimated future reliability data to a control center for comparing different equipment assets based on the processed data set.

19. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein the maintenance standard normalizes the maintenance expense data from the maintenance expense data and the one or more comparative analysis model, and wherein the asset reliability data is Equivalent Forced Outage Rate data corresponding to a plurality of other equipment assets.

20. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein the instructions, when executed by the processor, further causes the apparatus to:

compile the maintenance standard and asset reliability data into a complied data file;

generate a categorized time based maintenance expense data based upon at least the compiled data file; and

generate a categorized time based reliability data based upon at least the compiled data file, and

wherein at least some of the first principle data corresponding to the equipment asset is measured from one or more sensing devices.