BUILDING MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING TIME SERIES VALUES OF BUILDING VARIABLES
First Claim
1. A building management system (BMS) configured to generate predictive models used to forecast time series values of building variables monitored by the BMS, the BMS comprising:
- one or more sensors configured to measure time series values of the building variables;
a deterministic model generator configured to use historical BMS data comprising historical values for the time series of building variables to train one or more deterministic models that predict deterministic values for the time series;
a stochastic model generator configured to use differences between actual values for the time series and the deterministic values predicted by the one or more deterministic models to train a stochastic model that predicts a stochastic value for the time series;
a forecast adjuster configured to adjust the deterministic values predicted by the one or more deterministic models using the stochastic value predicted by the stochastic model to generate an adjusted forecast for the time series;
a demand response optimizer configured to use the adjusted forecast for the time series to generate an optimal set of control actions for building equipment; and
building equipment configured to use the optimal set of control actions to affect one or more of the building variables monitored by the BMS by operation of the building equipment.
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Abstract
A building management system (BMS) includes sensors that measure time series values of building variables and a deterministic model generator that uses historical values for the time series of building variables to train a deterministic model that predicts deterministic values for the time series. The BMS includes a stochastic model generator that uses differences between actual values for the time series and the predicted deterministic values to train a stochastic model that predicts a stochastic value for the time series. The BMS includes a forecast adjuster that adjusts the predicted deterministic values using the predicted stochastic value to generate an adjusted forecast for the time series. The BMS includes a demand response optimizer that uses the adjusted forecast to generate an optimal set of control actions for building equipment of the BMS. The building equipment operate to affect the building variables.
195 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A building management system (BMS) configured to generate predictive models used to forecast time series values of building variables monitored by the BMS, the BMS comprising:
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one or more sensors configured to measure time series values of the building variables; a deterministic model generator configured to use historical BMS data comprising historical values for the time series of building variables to train one or more deterministic models that predict deterministic values for the time series; a stochastic model generator configured to use differences between actual values for the time series and the deterministic values predicted by the one or more deterministic models to train a stochastic model that predicts a stochastic value for the time series; a forecast adjuster configured to adjust the deterministic values predicted by the one or more deterministic models using the stochastic value predicted by the stochastic model to generate an adjusted forecast for the time series; a demand response optimizer configured to use the adjusted forecast for the time series to generate an optimal set of control actions for building equipment; and building equipment configured to use the optimal set of control actions to affect one or more of the building variables monitored by the BMS by operation of the building equipment. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. A forecasting system configured to forecast time series values in a building management system (BMS), the forecasting system comprising:
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a load/rate predictor configured to use one or more deterministic models trained with historical BMS data to predict a deterministic value for the time series; wherein the load/rate predictor is configured to use a stochastic model trained with differences between actual values for the time series and deterministic values predicted by the one or more deterministic models to predict a stochastic value for the time series; wherein the load/rate predictor comprises a forecast adjuster configured to adjust the deterministic values predicted by the one or more deterministic models using the stochastic value predicted by the stochastic model to generate an adjusted forecast for the time series. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16, 17)
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18. A method for forecasting time series values in a building management system (BMS), the method comprising:
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using one or more regression models trained with historical BMS data for time series to forecast a deterministic value for the time series; using a history of residuals for the time series to forecast a residual for the time series, wherein the residuals are differences between forecasted deterministic values for the time series and actual values for the time series; using the forecasted residual for the time series to adjust the forecasted deterministic value. - View Dependent Claims (19, 20)
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Specification