PREDICTING WAITING PASSENGER COUNT AND EVALUATION

• US 20150348068A1
• Filed: 05/27/2015
• Published: 12/03/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 05/28/2014
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Fei, Xiang, Gong, Min, Qiu, Yun Jie, Wang, Zhi Hu, Yan, Junchi
• Application Number:
  US14/722,879
• Publication Number:
  US 20150348068A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06393 Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

Predicting waiting passenger count and evaluation. The present invention provides to a dispatching support system in order to help bus dispatchers or operators make better instructions or decisions, by providing short-term passenger flow prediction. The dispatcher finds the predicted passenger flow and obtains accurate and useful information from the predicted passenger information, such as, bus status, bus location congestion level on the buses, and passenger oriented Key Performance Index, such as, passenger weighted waiting time. Based on this passenger information, dispatchers can make better decisions and instructions.

Claims

1. A method for predicting a waiting passenger count comprising:

based on historical travel data of buses and current bus travel data, predicting arrival time when buses arrive at a bus stop; and

based on historical passenger flow data and a current waiting passenger count, and in a case where the prediction result of said arrival time is considered, predicting a waiting passenger count at said stop in the next time period.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the historical travel data comprises at least one of speed, location of said bus corresponding to different time of a day in history.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the current bus travel data comprises at least one of current speed, location of said bus.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the historical passenger flow data comprises at least one of a boarding count and a empty seat count of said bus at said stop corresponding to different time of a day in history.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the current waiting passenger count is obtained through photographing and recognizing by a video camera at said stop.

6. The method according to claim 1, wherein predicting the waiting passenger count at said stop in the next time period comprising, with respect to said bus stop:

based on historical passenger flow data, performing prediction of an count;

based on historical passenger flow data, performing prediction of an empty seat count of said bus;

based on the prediction result of said arrival time, the prediction result of said arrival passenger count and the prediction result of said empty seat count, performing prediction of a departure passenger count; and

based on said arrival passenger count, said departure passenger count and the current waiting passenger count, predicting the waiting passenger count at said stop in the next time period.

7. The method according to claim 6, wherein prediction of the arrival passenger count and prediction of the empty seat count of said bus is performed with a seasonal time sequence model.

8. The method according to claim 6, wherein in prediction of the arrival passenger count, passengers who board the same bus at the same bus stop are assumed to arrive at the bus stop according to a particular distribution, and arrival of each bus corresponds to a distribution, and the arrival passenger count in a time period is equal to the sum of integrals of respective said distributions within the time period.

9. The method according to claim 6, further comprising calculating boarding time based on predicted departure passenger count and correcting arrival time when the bus arrives at the next stop according to the boarding time.

10. An evaluation method for a dispatching scheme of buses comprising:

based on historical travel data of buses and current bus travel data, predicting arrival time when buses arrive at a bus stop;

based on historical passenger flow data and a current waiting passenger count, and in a case where the prediction result of said arrival time is considered, predicting a waiting passenger count at said stop in the next time period;

using integral of the product of the predicted waiting passenger count and their waiting time as the Key Performance Index (“

KPI”

); and

evaluating the dispatching scheme of buses to determine whether said KPI is smaller than a predetermined value.

11. A system for predicting a waiting passenger count comprising:

an arrival time predictor configured to predict, based on historical travel data of buses and current bus travel data, arrival time when buses arrive at a bus stop; and

a waiting passenger count predictor configured to predict, based on historical passenger flow data and a current waiting passenger count, and in a case where the prediction result of said arrival time is considered, a waiting passenger count at said stop in the next time period.

12. The system according to claim 11, wherein the historical travel data comprises at least one of speed, location of said bus corresponding to different time of a day in history.

13. The system according to claim 11, wherein the current bus travel data comprises at least one of current speed, location of said bus.

14. The system according to claim 11, wherein the historical passenger flow data comprises at least one of a boarding count and a empty seat count of said bus at said stop corresponding to different time of a day in history.

15. The system according to claim 11, wherein the current waiting passenger count is obtained through photographing and recognizing by a video camera at said stop.

16. The system according to claim 11, wherein the waiting passenger count predictor is further configured to, with respect to said bus stop:

based on historical passenger flow data, performing prediction of an arrival passenger count;

based on historical passenger flow data, performing prediction of an empty seat count of said bus;

based on the prediction result of said arrival time, the prediction result of said arrival passenger count and the prediction result of said empty seat count, performing prediction of a departure passenger count; and

based on said arrival passenger count, said departure passenger count and the current waiting passenger count, predicting the waiting passenger count at said stop in the next time period.

17. The system according to claim 16, wherein prediction of the arrival passenger count and prediction of the empty seat count of said bus is performed with a seasonal time sequence model.

18. The system according to claim 16, wherein in prediction of the arrival passenger count, passengers who board the same bus at the same bus stop are assumed to arrive at the bus stop according to a particular distribution, and arrival of each bus corresponds to a distribution, and the arrival passenger count in a time period is equal to the sum of integrals of respective said distributions within the time period.

19. The system according to claim 16, wherein the waiting passenger count predictor is further configured to calculate boarding time based on predicted departure passenger count and correct arrival time when the bus arrives at the next stop according to the boarding time.

20. An evaluation system for a dispatching scheme of buses comprising:

an arrival time predictor configured to predict, based on historical travel data of buses and current bus travel data, arrival time when buses arrive at a bus stop;

a waiting passenger count predictor configured to predict, based on historical passenger flow data and a current waiting passenger count, and in a case where the prediction result of said arrival time is considered, a waiting passenger count at said stop in the next time period;

a KPI setting device configured to use integral of the product of the predicted waiting passenger count and their waiting time as the KPI; and

an evaluator configured to evaluate a dispatching scheme of buses to determine whether said KPI is smaller than a predetermined value.