FORECASTING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY WORKLOAD DEMAND

• US 20150371244A1
• Filed: 06/23/2014
• Published: 12/24/2015
• Est. Priority Date: 06/23/2014
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: CA, Inc. (d/b/a CA Technologies) (Broadcom, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: CA, Inc. (d/b/a CA Technologies) (Broadcom, Inc.)
• Inventors: Neuse, Douglas M., Mankovskii, Serguei
• Application Number:
  US14/311,937
• Publication Number:
  US 20150371244A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

Embodiments of the disclosure describe methods and systems for improved forecasting of IT workloads and related metrics. Embodiments may include, for example, normalizing, warehousing and mining of data sets of many types collected from many different customers, applications and execution environments, and of metrics internal and external to such customers. Prediction or forecasting algorithms may be developed for predicting future IT workload demand based on a discovered relationship between certain factors and historical information. The prediction algorithms may be applied as appropriate to each customer'"'"'s workloads, applications, and execution environments.

Claims

1. A method of forecasting an information technology (IT) workload demand, comprising:

obtaining historic information external to IT workload information;

identifying a historic explanatory variable associated with the historic information;

determining a historic IT workload demand resulting from the historic explanatory variable; and

generating, by a computing device, a predictive algorithm for forecasting a future IT workload demand based on the historic explanatory variable and the historic IT workload demand.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises:

obtaining external information that is external to IT workload information;

identifying an explanatory variable associated with the external information;

selecting the predictive algorithm based on a comparison of the explanatory variable of the external information to the historic explanatory variable of the historic information; and

calculating the future IT workload demand for the external information with the predictive algorithm.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the predictive algorithm comprises an equation comprising the historic explanatory variable, a causality value and a causality operation, and wherein calculating the future IT workload demand comprises using the causality operation to operate on the explanatory variable with the causality value.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein the predictive algorithm comprises a timeframe, and wherein the method further comprises:

calculating the timeframe of the predictive algorithm based on a timeframe of the historic IT workload demand; and

calculating a timeframe of the future IT workload demand based on the timeframe of the predictive algorithm.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the predictive algorithm comprises a predictive metric corresponding to an amount that the historic explanatory variable contributes to the historic IT workload demand, and wherein the method further comprises including the predictive algorithm in a set of predictive algorithms responsive to a determination that the predictive metric of the predictive algorithm satisfies a predictive metric threshold.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising recalculating the predictive algorithm responsive to obtaining additional historic information.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the historic information comprises historic media business information with a reference to a product, wherein the historic explanatory variable comprises an amount of the historic media business information, and wherein generating the predictive algorithm comprises generating the predictive algorithm based on a correspondence between the amount of the historic media business information and a subsequent increase in the historic IT workload demand.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the historic media business information comprises a social media posting with a reference to the product.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the historic information indicates a release of a product, wherein the historic explanatory variable comprises a time of the release of the product, and wherein generating the predictive algorithm comprises generating the predictive algorithm based on a correspondence between the time of the release of the product and a subsequent increase in the historic IT workload demand.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the historic information indicates a restructure of a business, wherein the explanatory variable comprises a change in an amount of deliverables of the business, and wherein generating the predictive algorithm comprises generating the predictive algorithm based on a correspondence between the change in the amount of deliverables and a subsequent increase in the historic IT workload demand.

11. A system, comprising:

a processor; and

a memory coupled to the processor and comprising computer readable program code embodied in the memory that when executed by the processor causes the processor to perform operations comprising;

obtaining historic information external to IT workload information;

identifying a historic explanatory variable associated with the historic information;

determining a historic IT workload demand resulting from the historic explanatory variable; and

generating, by a computing device, a predictive algorithm for forecasting a future IT workload demand based on the historic explanatory variable and the historic IT workload demand.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the operations further comprise:

obtaining external information that is external to IT workload information;

identifying an explanatory variable associated with the external information;

selecting the predictive algorithm based on a comparison of the explanatory variable of the external information to the historic explanatory variable of the historic information; and

calculating the future IT workload demand for the external information with the predictive algorithm.

13. The system of claim 12, wherein the predictive algorithm comprises an equation comprising the historic explanatory variable, a causality value and a causality operation, and wherein the operations further comprise using the causality operation to operate on the explanatory variable with the causality value.

14. The system of claim 12, wherein the predictive algorithm comprises a predictive metric corresponding to an amount that the historic explanatory variable contributes to the historic IT workload demand, and wherein the operations further comprise including the predictive algorithm in a set of predictive algorithms responsive to a determination that the predictive metric of the predictive algorithm satisfies a predictive metric threshold.

15. The system of claim 12, wherein the predictive algorithm comprises a timeframe, and wherein the operations further comprise:

calculating the timeframe of the predictive algorithm based on a timeframe of the historic IT workload demand; and

calculating a timeframe of the future IT workload demand based on the timeframe of the predictive algorithm.

16. The system of claim 11, wherein the operations further comprise recalculating the predictive algorithm responsive to obtaining additional historic information.

17. The system of claim 11, wherein the historic information comprises historic media business information with a reference to a product, wherein the historic explanatory variable comprises an amount of the historic media business information, and wherein the operations further comprise generating the predictive algorithm based on a correspondence between the amount of the historic media business information and a subsequent increase in the historic IT workload demand.

18. The system of claim 11, wherein the historic information comprises a release of a product, wherein the historic explanatory variable comprises a time of the release of the product, and wherein the operations further comprise generating the predictive algorithm based on a correspondence between the time of the release of the product and a subsequent increase in the historic IT workload demand.

19. The system of claim 11, wherein the historic information comprises a restructure of a business, wherein the historic explanatory variable comprises a change in the amount of deliverables of the business, and wherein the operations further comprise generating the predictive algorithm based on a correspondence between the change in the amount of deliverables and a subsequent increase in the historic IT workload demand.

20. A computer program product, comprising:

a non-transitory computer readable storage medium comprising computer readable program code embodied in the medium that when executed by a processor causes the processor to perform operations comprising;

obtaining historic information external to IT workload information;

identifying an explanatory variable associated with the historic information;

determining a historic IT workload demand resulting from the explanatory variable; and

generating, by a computing device, a predictive algorithm for forecasting a future IT workload demand based on the explanatory variable and the historic IT workload demand.