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Apparatus and method for assessing financial loss from cyber threats capable of affecting at least one computer network

  • US 20160197953A1
  • Filed: 02/01/2016
  • Published: 07/07/2016
  • Est. Priority Date: 12/22/2011
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. An apparatus including one or more computer processors and a computer readable memory in which programming code is stored, wherein the one or more computer processors are configured pursuant to programming code in the computer readable memory to predict, for each of a plurality of threats capable of affecting at least one computer network in which a plurality of systems operate, future threat activity using a Monte Carlo method based on stochastic modeling of past observed threat events, wherein the plurality of threats includes a plurality of electronic threats and the plurality of electronic threats includes a plurality of computer viruses,wherein the one or more computer processors are configured, for a given threat, to model a set of past observed threat events to obtain an estimate of at least one model parameter, and, in a Monte Carlo simulation of a given threat,to predict future threat events using the at least one model parameter and a stochastic model using a projection of at least one model parameter which is based on the estimate of at least one model parameter and on a randomly-drawn variable, andto predict a distribution of future threat events by repeating the simulation using a plurality of variables.

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