Churn Modeling Based On Subscriber Contextual And Behavioral Factors
First Claim
1. A network device, comprising:
- a transceiver to send and receive data over a network; and
one or more processors that are operative to perform actions, including;
training a churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous first sequential behavior activities of multiple first subscribers of a telecommunications service provider involving use of telecommunications functionality of a telecommunications service provider, wherein the multiple first subscribers subsequently terminate use of the telecommunications functionality after the first sequential behavior activities;
training a non-churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous second sequential behavior activities of multiple second subscribers of the telecommunications service provider involving use of the telecommunications functionality, wherein the multiple second subscribers are distinct from the multiple first subscribers and do not subsequently terminate use of the telecommunications functionality after the second sequential behavior activities, and wherein the non-churn model is separate from the churn model;
receiving, from the telecommunications service provider, data about behavior of a plurality of subscribers of the telecommunications service provider;
applying an active-subscriber filter to select a subset of the plurality of subscribers that satisfy a selected Activity Level;
employing the trained churn model to determine, for each subscriber in the subset, a first proportional likelihood that a behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the first sequential behavior activities of the trained churn model;
employing the trained non-churn model to determine, for each subscriber in the subset, a second proportional likelihood that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the second sequential behavior activities of the trained non-churn model;
comparing, for each subscriber in the subset, the determined first and second proportional likelihoods for the subscriber to identify whether the behavioral sequence of the subscriber is more similar to the first sequential behavior activities of the multiple first subscribers for the trained churn model or to the second sequential behavior activities of the multiple second subscribers for the trained non-churn model, and determining a churn risk value for the subscriber based on the determined first proportional likelihood and on the determined second proportional likelihood; and
sending, for one or more subscribers that are selected from the subset based at least in part on the determined churn risk values for the one or more subscribers, messages over one or more computer networks to one or more client devices of the one or more subscribers to influence future actions of the one or more subscribers related to churn for the telecommunications service provider.
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Accused Products
Abstract
Subject innovations are directed towards a churn model using dynamic state-space modeling to determine churn risks for each active subscriber of a service provider having exhibited a precise sequence of behaviors. The churn model identifies complex behavioral patterns that are consistent with those of subscribers who have churned in a defined past, allowing for a personalized determination of churn risk. The churn model may also use static contextual data to assist in refinement of the churn model through identification of subscriber segments. A churn index is produced that may be used by an automated contextual marketing model to refine decision making for selectively marketing to a subscriber based, in part, on that individual subscriber'"'"'s churn risk.
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Citations
24 Claims
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1. A network device, comprising:
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a transceiver to send and receive data over a network; and one or more processors that are operative to perform actions, including; training a churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous first sequential behavior activities of multiple first subscribers of a telecommunications service provider involving use of telecommunications functionality of a telecommunications service provider, wherein the multiple first subscribers subsequently terminate use of the telecommunications functionality after the first sequential behavior activities; training a non-churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous second sequential behavior activities of multiple second subscribers of the telecommunications service provider involving use of the telecommunications functionality, wherein the multiple second subscribers are distinct from the multiple first subscribers and do not subsequently terminate use of the telecommunications functionality after the second sequential behavior activities, and wherein the non-churn model is separate from the churn model; receiving, from the telecommunications service provider, data about behavior of a plurality of subscribers of the telecommunications service provider; applying an active-subscriber filter to select a subset of the plurality of subscribers that satisfy a selected Activity Level; employing the trained churn model to determine, for each subscriber in the subset, a first proportional likelihood that a behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the first sequential behavior activities of the trained churn model; employing the trained non-churn model to determine, for each subscriber in the subset, a second proportional likelihood that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the second sequential behavior activities of the trained non-churn model; comparing, for each subscriber in the subset, the determined first and second proportional likelihoods for the subscriber to identify whether the behavioral sequence of the subscriber is more similar to the first sequential behavior activities of the multiple first subscribers for the trained churn model or to the second sequential behavior activities of the multiple second subscribers for the trained non-churn model, and determining a churn risk value for the subscriber based on the determined first proportional likelihood and on the determined second proportional likelihood; and sending, for one or more subscribers that are selected from the subset based at least in part on the determined churn risk values for the one or more subscribers, messages over one or more computer networks to one or more client devices of the one or more subscribers to influence future actions of the one or more subscribers related to churn for the telecommunications service provider. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. A non-transitory computer-readable storage device having computer-executable instructions stored thereon that, in response to execution by a processor unit, cause the processor unit to perform operations including:
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training a churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous first sequential behavior activities of multiple first subscribers of a network provider who subsequently terminate use of a product or service of the network provider; training a non-churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous second sequential behavior activities of multiple second subscribers of the network provider who do not subsequently terminate use of the product or service of the network provider, wherein the multiple second subscribers are distinct from the multiple first subscribers, and wherein the non-churn model is separate from the churn model; receiving, from the network provider, data about behavior of a plurality of subscribers of the network provider; employing the trained churn model to determine, for a subscriber from the plurality of subscribers, a first proportional likelihood that a behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the first sequential behavior activities of the trained churn model; employing the trained non-churn model to determine a second proportional likelihood that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the second sequential behavior activities of the trained non-churn model; comparing the determined first and second proportional likelihoods to identify that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber is more similar to the first sequential behavior activities of the multiple first subscribers for the trained churn model than to the second sequential behavior activities of the multiple second subscribers for the trained non-churn model; and sending, based at least in part on identifying that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber is more similar to the first sequential behavior activities of the multiple first subscribers for the trained churn model, one or more messages over one or more networks to a client device of the subscriber to influence future actions of the subscriber related to churn for the network provider. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
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20. A system, comprising:
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a non-transitory data storage device; and one or more special purpose computer devices that access and store data on the data storage device and employ at least one processor to perform actions, including; training a churn model to represent information about previous first sequential behavior activities of multiple first subscribers of a network provider who subsequently terminate use of a product or service of the network provider; training a non-churn model to represent information about previous second sequential behavior activities of multiple second subscribers of the network provider who do not subsequently terminate use of the product or service of the network provider, wherein the multiple second subscribers are distinct from the multiple first subscribers, and wherein the non-churn model is separate from the churn model; receiving, from the network provider, data about behavior of a plurality of subscribers of the network provider; employing the trained churn model to determine, for a subscriber from the plurality of subscribers, a first proportional likelihood that a behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the first sequential behavior activities of the trained churn model; employing the trained non-churn model to determine a second proportional likelihood that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the second sequential behavior activities of the trained non-churn model; comparing the determined first and second proportional likelihoods to identify that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber is more similar to the first sequential behavior activities of the multiple first subscribers for the trained churn model than to the second sequential behavior activities of the multiple second subscribers for the trained non-churn model; and sending, based at least in part on identifying that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber is more similar to the first sequential behavior activities of the multiple first subscribers for the trained churn model, one or more messages to the subscribers to influence future actions of the subscriber related to churn for the network provider. - View Dependent Claims (21, 22, 23, 24)
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Specification