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Churn Modeling Based On Subscriber Contextual And Behavioral Factors

  • US 20160203509A1
  • Filed: 01/14/2015
  • Published: 07/14/2016
  • Est. Priority Date: 01/14/2015
  • Status: Abandoned Application
First Claim
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1. A network device, comprising:

  • a transceiver to send and receive data over a network; and

    one or more processors that are operative to perform actions, including;

    training a churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous first sequential behavior activities of multiple first subscribers of a telecommunications service provider involving use of telecommunications functionality of a telecommunications service provider, wherein the multiple first subscribers subsequently terminate use of the telecommunications functionality after the first sequential behavior activities;

    training a non-churn model that uses dynamic state-spacing modeling to represent information about previous second sequential behavior activities of multiple second subscribers of the telecommunications service provider involving use of the telecommunications functionality, wherein the multiple second subscribers are distinct from the multiple first subscribers and do not subsequently terminate use of the telecommunications functionality after the second sequential behavior activities, and wherein the non-churn model is separate from the churn model;

    receiving, from the telecommunications service provider, data about behavior of a plurality of subscribers of the telecommunications service provider;

    applying an active-subscriber filter to select a subset of the plurality of subscribers that satisfy a selected Activity Level;

    employing the trained churn model to determine, for each subscriber in the subset, a first proportional likelihood that a behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the first sequential behavior activities of the trained churn model;

    employing the trained non-churn model to determine, for each subscriber in the subset, a second proportional likelihood that the behavioral sequence of the subscriber matches the second sequential behavior activities of the trained non-churn model;

    comparing, for each subscriber in the subset, the determined first and second proportional likelihoods for the subscriber to identify whether the behavioral sequence of the subscriber is more similar to the first sequential behavior activities of the multiple first subscribers for the trained churn model or to the second sequential behavior activities of the multiple second subscribers for the trained non-churn model, and determining a churn risk value for the subscriber based on the determined first proportional likelihood and on the determined second proportional likelihood; and

    sending, for one or more subscribers that are selected from the subset based at least in part on the determined churn risk values for the one or more subscribers, messages over one or more computer networks to one or more client devices of the one or more subscribers to influence future actions of the one or more subscribers related to churn for the telecommunications service provider.

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