Case management system using a medical event forecasting engine
First Claim
1. A method of case management, comprising:
- predicting one or more future events and their anticipated timing for patients by;
receiving and merging disparate health episode data sets into patient-specific data objects, wherein a patient-specific data object is a collection of episodes associated with the patient;
from the patient-specific data objects, processing a patient population into one or more cohorts, wherein a cohort is associated with one or more dynamic features whose values depend on one or more observation periods, each observation period defined by a rolling window;
applying one or more rolling windows to the one or more cohorts to extract one or more of the dynamic features; and
applying machine learning using the one or more dynamic features extracted to generate predictions for the one or more future events and their anticipated timing; and
providing the predictions to drive a case management operation.
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Abstract
A case management tool uses a novel event forecast engine. The engine leverages a flexible and extensible data structure that combines diverse formats of claims (e.g., both medical and pharmacy) and that highlights “episodes” rather than items. The engine also makes predictions with respect to “cohorts” groups, where cohorts are defined using both static and dynamic features, the latter being features that change their values based on observation periods. Multiple definitions of cohorts are implemented, and optimal cohort definitions are estimated. The engine uses rolling time window processing to extract dynamic features in the data sets, and then one or more machine learning algorithms are applied to the extracted data. Cohort-wise machine learning models preferably learn on dynamic features, which are then put together for final predictions. A validation step is applied when outcomes are later observed. Validation results update the cohort definitions as well as the model parameters.
56 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method of case management, comprising:
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predicting one or more future events and their anticipated timing for patients by; receiving and merging disparate health episode data sets into patient-specific data objects, wherein a patient-specific data object is a collection of episodes associated with the patient; from the patient-specific data objects, processing a patient population into one or more cohorts, wherein a cohort is associated with one or more dynamic features whose values depend on one or more observation periods, each observation period defined by a rolling window; applying one or more rolling windows to the one or more cohorts to extract one or more of the dynamic features; and applying machine learning using the one or more dynamic features extracted to generate predictions for the one or more future events and their anticipated timing; and providing the predictions to drive a case management operation. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. Apparatus for case management, comprising:
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a case management system comprising one or more computing machines, and a web-based user interface for display of case management-specific information; and a forecast engine executing as software in one or more hardware processors, the forecast engine operative to; receive and merge disparate health episode data sets into patient-specific data objects, wherein a patient-specific data object is a collection of episodes associated with the patient; from the patient-specific data objects, process a patient population into one or more cohorts, wherein a cohort is associated with one or more dynamic features whose values depend on one or more observation periods, each observation period defined by a rolling window; apply one or more rolling windows to the one or more cohorts to extract one or more of the dynamic features; and apply machine learning using the one or more dynamic features extracted to generate predictions for the one or more future events and their anticipated timing; and outputting information on the web-based user interface based on the predictions to provide an improved case management operation. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16)
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17. A product, comprising:
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a non-transitory computer readable storage device; and computer readable instructions stored by the storage device; wherein the computer readable instructions include instruction sets respectively written to cause a computer to perform the following operations in association with a case management tool; (a) receive and merge disparate health episode data sets into patient-specific data objects, wherein a patient-specific data object is a collection of episodes associated with the patient marking dynamic output from a first web application; (b) from the patient-specific data objects, process a patient population into one or more cohorts, wherein a cohort is associated with one or more dynamic features whose values depend on one or more observation periods, each observation period defined by a rolling window; (c) apply one or more rolling windows to the one or more cohorts to extract one or more of the dynamic features; and (d) apply machine learning using the one or more dynamic features extracted to generate predictions for the one or more future events and their anticipated timing. - View Dependent Claims (18)
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19. A method for forecasting in association with case management, comprising:
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receiving and merging disparate health episode data sets into patient-specific data objects, wherein a patient-specific data object is a collection of episodes associated with the patient; from the patient-specific data objects, processing a patient population into one or more cohorts, wherein a cohort is associated with one or more dynamic features whose values depend on one or more observation periods, each observation period defined by a rolling window; applying one or more rolling windows to the one or more cohorts to extract one or more of the dynamic features; applying machine learning using the one or more dynamic features extracted to generate predictions for the one or more future events and their anticipated timing; validating the predictions; and based on results of validating the predictions, taking an action that is one of;
adjusting a definition of a cohort, and adjusting a machine learning model. - View Dependent Claims (20)
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Specification