System and Method for Defining and Predicting Aircraft Trajectories
First Claim
1. A method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories, for use in flight management of an aircraft, which comprises:
- a. acquiring input data of both aircraft performance characteristics and atmospheric data, andb. defining trajectory parameters to which the aircraft trajectory must be subjected, characterized in that;
aircraft trajectory parameters are defined by means of a specific Aircraft Intent Description Language, which is constituted by specific signs, wherein each segment of the aircraft trajectory is described by each sign of the Aircraft Intent Description Language, wherein each specific combination of signs of the Aircraft Intent Description Language completely describes a whole trajectory;
atmospheric data is acquired in the form of a plurality of atmospheric forecast ensembles, each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble expressing a determined weather scenario with an associated probability;
wherein the method further comprises;
c. calculating a predicted trajectory from each atmospheric forecast of an atmospheric forecast ensemble, said predicted trajectory having associated information regarding a certain figure of merit of the aircraft trajectory;
wherein an ensemble of predicted trajectories is obtained from each atmospheric forecast ensemble, each predicted trajectory of the ensemble of predicted trajectories having an associated probability derived from the probability of each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble;
d. selecting a specific figure of merit of each aircraft predicted trajectory;
e. determining, for each predicted trajectory within an ensemble of predicted trajectories, the value of the selected figure of merit;
f. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, a statistical value of the selected figure of merit, said calculated statistical value representing, according to the selected figure of merit, all the predicted trajectories within each ensemble of predicted trajectories;
wherein said calculating includes at least one criterion for the calculation of an associated uncertainty with which a chosen predicted trajectory represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit;
g. determining the predicted trajectory, from each ensemble of predicted trajectories, whose value for the selected figure of merit, is closer to the previously calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit;
h. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, the dispersion of values for the selected figure of merit, with respect to the calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit for all the predicted trajectories of each ensemble of predicted trajectories, andi. utilizing a selected predicted trajectory in flight management of an aircraft in at least one segment of a flight.
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Abstract
The method of the present invention comprises acquiring input data of both aircraft performance characteristics and atmospheric data, and defining trajectory parameters to which the aircraft trajectory must be subjected, the method further comprising defining aircraft trajectory parameters; acquiring a plurality of atmospheric forecast ensembles; calculating a predicted trajectory from each atmospheric forecast of an atmospheric forecast ensemble, said predicted trajectory having associated information regarding a certain figure of merit of the aircraft trajectory, wherein an ensemble of predicted trajectories is obtained from each atmospheric forecast ensemble, each predicted trajectory of the ensemble of predicted trajectories having an associated probability derived from the probability of each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble; the system of the present disclosure comprising all the necessary equipment to carry out the method of the present disclosure.
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Citations
13 Claims
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1. A method for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories, for use in flight management of an aircraft, which comprises:
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a. acquiring input data of both aircraft performance characteristics and atmospheric data, and b. defining trajectory parameters to which the aircraft trajectory must be subjected, characterized in that; aircraft trajectory parameters are defined by means of a specific Aircraft Intent Description Language, which is constituted by specific signs, wherein each segment of the aircraft trajectory is described by each sign of the Aircraft Intent Description Language, wherein each specific combination of signs of the Aircraft Intent Description Language completely describes a whole trajectory; atmospheric data is acquired in the form of a plurality of atmospheric forecast ensembles, each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble expressing a determined weather scenario with an associated probability; wherein the method further comprises; c. calculating a predicted trajectory from each atmospheric forecast of an atmospheric forecast ensemble, said predicted trajectory having associated information regarding a certain figure of merit of the aircraft trajectory; wherein an ensemble of predicted trajectories is obtained from each atmospheric forecast ensemble, each predicted trajectory of the ensemble of predicted trajectories having an associated probability derived from the probability of each atmospheric forecast within an atmospheric forecast ensemble; d. selecting a specific figure of merit of each aircraft predicted trajectory; e. determining, for each predicted trajectory within an ensemble of predicted trajectories, the value of the selected figure of merit; f. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, a statistical value of the selected figure of merit, said calculated statistical value representing, according to the selected figure of merit, all the predicted trajectories within each ensemble of predicted trajectories;
wherein said calculating includes at least one criterion for the calculation of an associated uncertainty with which a chosen predicted trajectory represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit;g. determining the predicted trajectory, from each ensemble of predicted trajectories, whose value for the selected figure of merit, is closer to the previously calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit; h. calculating, according to a predetermined statistical criterion, the dispersion of values for the selected figure of merit, with respect to the calculated statistical value of the selected figure of merit for all the predicted trajectories of each ensemble of predicted trajectories, and i. utilizing a selected predicted trajectory in flight management of an aircraft in at least one segment of a flight. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5)
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6. A system for defining and predicting aircraft trajectories, for use in flight management of an aircraft, characterized in that it comprises:
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a. a processor unit, for calculating predicted trajectories for each segment of an aircraft flight utilizing a specific Aircraft Intent Description Language, each calculated predicted trajectory being calculated based on stochastic input data, therefore each calculated predicted trajectory being stochastic and having an associated probability, the input data selected from at least the following; i. Aircraft Performance Model parameters; ii. atmospheric forecasts; b. a probabilistic Digital Meteorological Service unit, being configured to provide the processor unit for calculating predicted trajectories with the input of an ensemble of atmospheric forecasts; c. a robust Decision Support Tool unit, being configured for; i. providing the processor unit for calculating predicted trajectories with input data necessary for predicting trajectories, and; ii. selecting a predicted trajectory from among the predicted trajectories calculated by the processor unit for calculating predicted trajectories; d. characterized in that the robust decision support tool unit defines; i. a predetermined flight trajectory including one or more parameters which define the flight trajectory, by means of imposing a combination of three trajectory restriction parameters for each segment of the flight trajectory; ii. an aircraft performance model including one or more parameters which define aircraft response upon external conditions; iii. parameters related to aircraft initial conditions at beginning of a segment of the flight trajectory; iv. a set of parameters defining at least one figure of merit of a predicted trajectory calculated by the processor unit for calculating predicted trajectories; v. at least one criterion to choose a predicted trajectory from among at least one ensemble of predicted trajectories calculated by the processor unit for calculating predicted trajectories, this at least one criterion based on searching which predicted trajectory best represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit; vi. at least one criterion for the calculation of an associated uncertainty with which a chosen predicted trajectory represents a central statistical value of a certain figure of merit; wherein the selected predicted trajectory is utilized by a flight management system in guidance of an aircraft in at least one segment of a flight. - View Dependent Claims (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13)
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Specification