COMPUTERIZED PROCESS SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

• US 20160364456A1
• Filed: 06/09/2015
• Published: 12/15/2016
• Est. Priority Date: 06/09/2015
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Original Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Inventors: Trenchard, Andrew John, Sundaram, Meenakshi
• Granted Patent: US 10,572,493 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/2455 Query execution
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/2465 Query processing support for facilitating data mining operations in structured databases
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/26 Government or public services business processes related to the transportation industry G06Q50/40

Abstract

A method includes obtaining from a database: at least one initiating cause that causes a hazard, an initiating cause frequency corresponding to the at least one initiating cause, a set of independent protection layers configured to operate to prevent the hazard and including protection equipment for which no industry safety standards and regulations are defined, and a failure probability of each protection layer. The method includes estimating a frequency of occurrence of the hazard using a product of the initiating cause frequency and a failure probability of the set of independent protection layers. The method further includes adjusting the estimated frequency of occurrence of the hazard based on a change of at least one of: the initiating cause frequency, and a failure probability of a protection layer in the set of independent protection layers.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

obtaining from a database;

at least one initiating cause that causes a hazard,

an initiating cause frequency corresponding to the at least one initiating cause,

a set of independent protection layers configured to operate to prevent the hazard and including protection equipment for which no industry safety standards and regulations are defined, and

a failure probability of each protection layer; and

estimating a frequency of occurrence of the hazard using a product of the initiating cause frequency and a failure probability of the set of independent protection layers; and

adjusting the estimated frequency of occurrence of the hazard based on a change of at least one of;

the initiating cause frequency, and

a failure probability of a protection layer in the set of independent protection layers.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the at least one initiating cause comprises a set of multiple initiating causes that are protected by the set of independent protection layers; and

the method further comprises;

obtaining from the database;

each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes, and

an initiating cause frequency corresponding to each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes; and

calculating the initiating cause frequency using a sum of the initiating cause frequencies corresponding to each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the set of independent protection layers includes multiple independent protection layers, and

the method further comprises calculating the failure probability of the set of independent protection layers using a product of the failure probabilities of the multiple independent protection layers.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining a set of hazards identified as a potential cause of damage at a plant;

for each hazard in the set of identified hazards, estimating a frequency of occurrence of the hazard using a product of initiating cause frequency that causes the hazard and a failure probability of a set of independent protection layers configured to operate to prevent the hazard; and

calculating a total hazard rate using a sum of the frequencies of occurrence of all hazards in the set of identified hazards.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

adjusting the failure probability of at least one protection layer in the set of independent protection layers based on real-time information,

wherein the real-time information includes a current state of a device of the at least one protection layer.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

adjusting the failure probability of at least one protection layer in the set of independent protection layers based on time averaged information,

wherein the time averaged information includes an amount of time a device of the at least one protection layer is impaired during a monitoring period.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising selecting, as the initiating cause frequency, the greatest one of:

a design event rate,

an observed event rate, and

a product of the design event rate and a weighted function of an asset equipment health index of a device corresponding to the at least one initiating cause.

8. An apparatus comprising:

processing circuitry configured to;

obtain from a database;

at least one initiating cause that causes a hazard,

an initiating cause frequency corresponding to the at least one initiating cause,

a set of independent protection layers configured to operate to prevent the hazard and including protection equipment for which no industry safety standards and regulations are defined, and

a failure probability of each protection layer; and

estimate a frequency of occurrence of the hazard using a product of the initiating cause frequency and a failure probability of the set of independent protection layers; and

adjust the estimated frequency of occurrence of the hazard based on a change of at least one of;

the initiating cause frequency, and

a failure probability of a protection layer in the set of independent protection layers.

9. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein:

the at least one initiating cause comprises a set of multiple initiating causes that are protected by the set of independent protection layers; and

the processing circuitry is further configured to;

obtain from the database;

each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes, and

an initiating cause frequency corresponding to each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes; and

calculate the initiating cause frequency using a sum of the initiating cause frequencies corresponding to each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes.

10. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein:

the set of independent protection layers includes multiple independent protection layers, and

the processing circuitry is configured to calculate the failure probability of the set of independent protection layers using a product of the failure probabilities of the multiple independent protection layers.

11. The apparatus of claim 8, further configured to:

obtain a set of hazards identified as a potential cause of damage at a plant;

for each hazard in the set of identified hazards, estimate a frequency of occurrence of the hazard using a product of initiating cause frequency that causes the hazard and a failure probability of a set of independent protection layers configured to operate to prevent the hazard; and

calculate a total hazard rate using a sum of the frequencies of occurrence of all hazards in the set of identified hazards.

12. The apparatus of claim 8, further configured to:

adjust the failure probability of at least one protection layer in the set of independent protection layers based on real-time information,

wherein the real-time information includes a current state of a device of the at least one protection layer.

13. The apparatus of claim 8, further configured to:

adjust the failure probability of at least one protection layer in the set of independent protection layers based on time averaged information,

wherein the time averaged information includes an amount of time a device of the at least one protection layer is impaired during a monitoring period.

14. The apparatus of claim 8, further configured to:

select, as the initiating cause frequency, the greatest one of;

a design event rate,

an observed event rate, and

a product of the design event rate and a weighted function of an asset equipment health index of a device corresponding to the at least one initiating cause.

15. A non-transitory computer readable medium embodying a computer program, the computer program comprising computer readable program code that, when executed by processing circuitry, causes the processing circuitry to:

obtain from a database;

at least one initiating cause that causes a hazard,

an initiating cause frequency corresponding to the at least one initiating cause,

a set of independent protection layers configured to operate to prevent the hazard and including protection equipment for which no industry safety standards and regulations are defined, and

a failure probability of each protection layer; and

estimate a frequency of occurrence of the hazard using a product of the initiating cause frequency and a failure probability of the set of independent protection layers; and

adjust the estimated frequency of occurrence of the hazard based on a change of at least one of;

the initiating cause frequency, and

a failure probability of a protection layer in the set of independent protection layers.

16. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, wherein:

the at least one initiating cause comprises a set of multiple initiating causes that are protected by the set of independent protection layers; and

the computer program further comprises computer readable program code that, when executed by the processing circuitry, causes the processing circuitry to;

obtain from the database;

each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes, and

an initiating cause frequency corresponding to each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes; and

calculate the initiating cause frequency using a sum of the initiating cause frequencies corresponding to each initiating cause in the set of multiple initiating causes.

17. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, wherein:

the set of independent protection layers includes multiple independent protection layers, and

the computer program further comprises computer readable program code that, when executed by the processing circuitry, causes the processing circuitry to;

calculate the failure probability of the set of independent protection layers using a product of the failure probabilities of the multiple independent protection layers.

18. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, wherein the computer program further comprises computer readable program code that, when executed by the processing circuitry, causes the processing circuitry to:

obtain a set of hazards identified as a potential cause of damage at a plant;

for each hazard in the set of identified hazards, estimate a frequency of occurrence of the hazard using a product of initiating cause frequency that causes the hazard and a failure probability of a set of independent protection layers configured to operate to prevent the hazard; and

calculate a total hazard rate using a sum of the frequencies of occurrence of all hazards in the set of identified hazards.

19. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, wherein the computer program further comprises computer readable program code that, when executed by the processing circuitry, causes the processing circuitry to:

adjust the failure probability of at least one protection layer in the set of independent protection layers based on at least one of;

real-time information and time averaged information,

wherein the real-time information includes a current state of a device of the at least one protection layer, and

wherein the time averaged information includes an amount of time a device of the at least one protection layer is impaired during a monitoring period.

20. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 15, wherein the computer program further comprises computer readable program code that, when executed by the processing circuitry, causes the processing circuitry to:

select, as the initiating cause frequency, the greatest one of;

a design event rate,

an observed event rate, and

a product of the design event rate and a weighted function of an asset equipment health index of a device corresponding to the at least one initiating cause.