SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR PERFORMING SIGNAL PROCESSING AND DYNAMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF RISK OF THIRD PARTIES
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:
- generating a computerized network map being inclusive of a plurality of nodes representative of risk factors in multiple geographic regions in which one or more third parties of a user operate, each of the nodes in the network map (i) being interconnected with at least one of the other nodes as correlated risks and (ii) including a risk factor value calculated as a function of at least one risk measure used to model the respective risk factor;
computing a baseline risk of a geographic region by;
collecting data metrics for each risk factor of the geographic region;
processing the data metrics to generate normalized data for each risk factor;
aggregating the normalized data metrics of each risk factor to generate risk factor scores; and
computing a baseline risk score for the geographic region by aggregating the risk factor scores;
dynamically performing signal processing for each risk factor in a geographic region on associated content, including news and event content, and metadata associated with the content by;
utilizing a taxonomy describing disruption events associated with each of the risk factors of the network map and a taxonomy describing a geographic region being monitored in which the one or more third parties operate;
measuring signal strength of the identified content based on the metadata associated with the content;
measuring signal strength associated with a risk factor for the geographic region for a fixed period of time based on the signal strength of the identified content associated with that risk factor, thereby forming a time series of the measured signal strengths;
performing sequential analysis on the time series of the measured signal strengths of a risk factor for a geographic region using the variance of the historical distribution of signal strength for the risk factor for step detection;
step detecting to generate a risk signal for the risk factor within the geographic region based on a value of the calculated sequential analysis exceeding a threshold value determined by the variance of an historical distribution of the signal strength of the risk factor; and
activating the risk factor for a geographic region in response to the risk signal being generated;
forecasting risk in the geographic region in which the risk factor was activated in response to the risk signal being generated, the forecasting including;
calculating diffusion of risk throughout the network map so as to measure impact on correlated risks across the network map;
computing the projection of risk impact for each risk factor within the network map;
computing the probability projection for each risk factor within the network map; and
generating a risk projection for a geographic region based on the individual risk factor projections; and
generating a dynamic graphical user interface for the forecasted risk for the risk factors and the forecasted vulnerability scores for third parties within the geographic region.
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Abstract
A system and process for forecasting third party disruption that uses a complex computerized network map as part of a risk model may be used to analyze risk for third parties. A number of risk factors or nodes of the map may include a wide range of risks (e.g., corruption) that have an impact on third parties in a geographic region. A baseline risk level may be established by scoring underlying risk measures for respective geographic regions. By executing the risk model using dynamic signal processing in a near real-time manner and considering impact, velocity, likelihood, and interconnectedness of risk factors and the diffusion of risk across a network, potential third party disruption and/or vulnerability can be forecasted.
38 Citations
19 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method, comprising:
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generating a computerized network map being inclusive of a plurality of nodes representative of risk factors in multiple geographic regions in which one or more third parties of a user operate, each of the nodes in the network map (i) being interconnected with at least one of the other nodes as correlated risks and (ii) including a risk factor value calculated as a function of at least one risk measure used to model the respective risk factor; computing a baseline risk of a geographic region by; collecting data metrics for each risk factor of the geographic region; processing the data metrics to generate normalized data for each risk factor; aggregating the normalized data metrics of each risk factor to generate risk factor scores; and computing a baseline risk score for the geographic region by aggregating the risk factor scores; dynamically performing signal processing for each risk factor in a geographic region on associated content, including news and event content, and metadata associated with the content by; utilizing a taxonomy describing disruption events associated with each of the risk factors of the network map and a taxonomy describing a geographic region being monitored in which the one or more third parties operate; measuring signal strength of the identified content based on the metadata associated with the content; measuring signal strength associated with a risk factor for the geographic region for a fixed period of time based on the signal strength of the identified content associated with that risk factor, thereby forming a time series of the measured signal strengths; performing sequential analysis on the time series of the measured signal strengths of a risk factor for a geographic region using the variance of the historical distribution of signal strength for the risk factor for step detection; step detecting to generate a risk signal for the risk factor within the geographic region based on a value of the calculated sequential analysis exceeding a threshold value determined by the variance of an historical distribution of the signal strength of the risk factor; and activating the risk factor for a geographic region in response to the risk signal being generated; forecasting risk in the geographic region in which the risk factor was activated in response to the risk signal being generated, the forecasting including; calculating diffusion of risk throughout the network map so as to measure impact on correlated risks across the network map; computing the projection of risk impact for each risk factor within the network map; computing the probability projection for each risk factor within the network map; and generating a risk projection for a geographic region based on the individual risk factor projections; and generating a dynamic graphical user interface for the forecasted risk for the risk factors and the forecasted vulnerability scores for third parties within the geographic region. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19)
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Specification