USER INTERFACE FOR LATENT RISK ASSESSMENT

• US 20170161839A1
• Filed: 10/20/2016
• Published: 06/08/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 12/04/2015
• Status: Active Application

• Current Assignee: Praedicat, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Praedicat, Inc.
• Inventors: LOUGHRAN, David, REVILLE, Robert Thomas, CAVANAUGH, Grant, CHEBOLU, Naresh
• Application Number:
  US15/299,237
• Publication Number:
  US 20170161839A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 3/0482 Interaction with lists of selectable items, e.g. menus
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

Embodiments of the disclosure are directed toward a latent risk assessment user interface, including generating one or more curves that indicate expected future losses due to one or more agents. Embodiments of the disclosure can visualize such losses by mapping estimated litigation losses over time in a loss-time curve and/or generating an exceedance probability curve that indicates total losses at various probabilities. Further, the latent risk assessment user interface can allow a user to select multiple agents and/or multiple companies for aggregation/comparison in a single user interface. Such a user interface can be useful for an insurance company or reinsurer with a portfolio of many companies across diverse industries that utilize the same agents. For example, the latent risk assessment user interface can display estimated future litigation losses over time due to use of BPA and carbon nanotubes for a portfolio of multiple companies, displayed in a single aggregated visualization.

Claims

1. A method of a computing device including a display and an input device, the method comprising:

displaying, on the display, a risk assessment user interface including;

an agent selector indicating selection of a plurality of agents including a first agent and a second agent, and

a first curve indicating expected losses due to both the first agent and the second agent at a first probability level, wherein the first curve is generated based on a plurality of simulated claims, each respective claim of the plurality of simulated claims being associated with an agent of the plurality of agents, a date, and a settlement amount;

while the risk assessment user interface is displayed, receiving, at the input device, first user input de-selecting the second agent; and

after receiving the first user input,

aggregating expected losses due to respective claims of the plurality of simulated claims that are associated with the first agent, excluding respective claims of the plurality of simulated claims that are associated with the second agent, and

updating the first curve in the risk assessment user interface to indicate the aggregated expected losses due to the first agent and not the second agent.

3. The method of claim 1, the method further comprising:

generating a first representative individual in a microsimulation population;

associating the first representative individual with an exposure date based on a probability of exposure to the first agent of the plurality of agents;

associating the first representative individual with a first injury and an injury date based on a probability of injury after exposure to the first agent;

associating the first representative individual with a claim date based on a probability of claiming due to the first injury; and

estimating a first settlement amount based on the first injury.

4. The method of claim 3, the method further comprising:

generating a simulated claim associated with the first agent, the first settlement amount, and a first date based on at least one of the exposure date, the injury date, and the claim date;

wherein the simulated claim is included in the plurality of simulated claims.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the plurality of simulated claims are generated based on a projected distribution of future states of science with respect to a first hypothesis that the first agent causes the first injury.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the plurality of simulated claims are generated based on a projected distribution of liability risk, generated based on the projected distribution of future states of science with respect to the first hypothesis.

7. The method of claim 1, the method further comprising:

aggregating respective settlement amounts associated with simulated claims corresponding to a first exposure setting associated with the first agent of the selected plurality of agents to obtain a first aggregated losses amount associated with the first exposure setting;

allocating a first allocated industry portion of the first aggregated losses amount to a first industry associated with the first exposure setting based on a liability risk associated with the first industry and the first exposure setting; and

allocating a first allocated company portion of the first allocated industry portion to a first company in the first industry based on a first market share associated with the first company in the first industry;

wherein the first curve and a second curve are associated with the first company, and at least one of the first and second curves is generated based on the first allocated company portion.

8. The method of claim 7, the method further comprising:

aggregating respective settlement amounts associated with simulated claims corresponding to a second exposure setting associated with the second agent of the selected plurality of agents to obtain a second aggregated losses amount associated with the second exposure setting;

allocating a second allocated industry portion of the second aggregated losses amount to a second industry associated with the second exposure setting based on a liability risk associated with the second industry and the second exposure setting; and

allocating a second allocated company portion of the second allocated industry portion to the first company in the second industry based on a second market share associated with the first company in the second industry; and

aggregating at least the first allocated company portion and the second allocated company portion, wherein at least one of the first and second curves is generated based on aggregating the first allocated company portion and the second allocated company portion.

9. The method of claim 8, the method further comprising:

receiving second user input, at the input device, selecting a third agent not included in the plurality of agents;

aggregating respective settlement amounts associated with simulated claims corresponding to a third exposure setting associated with the third agent to obtain a third aggregated losses amount associated with the third exposure setting;

allocating a third allocated industry portion of the third aggregated losses amount to a third industry associated with the third exposure setting based on a liability risk associated with the third industry and the third exposure setting; and

allocating a third allocated company portion of the third allocated industry portion to the first company in the third industry based on a third market share associated with the first company in the third industry;

aggregating at least the first allocated company portion, the second allocated company portion, and the third allocated company portion; and

after receiving the second user input, updating the risk assessment user interface to display an updated first curve and an updated second curve, wherein at least one of the updated first curve and the updated second curve is generated based on the aggregated first, second, and third company portions.

2. (canceled)

10. A non-transitory computer readable medium storing instructions that, when executed by a computing device including a display and an input device, causes the computing device to perform a method comprising:

displaying, on the display, a risk assessment user interface including;

an agent selector indicating selection of a plurality of agents including a first agent and a second agent, and

a first curve indicating expected losses due to both the first agent and the second agent at a first probability level, wherein the first curve is generated based on a plurality of simulated claims, each respective claim of the plurality of simulated claims being associated with an agent of the plurality of agents, a date, and a settlement amount;

while the risk assessment user interface is displayed, receiving, at the input device, first user input de-selecting the second agent; and

after receiving the first user input,

aggregating expected losses due to respective claims of the plurality of simulated claims that are associated with the first agent, excluding respective claims of the plurality of simulated claims that are associated with the second agent, and

updating the first curve in the risk assessment user interface to indicate the aggregated expected losses due to the first agent and not the second agent.

11. A computing device, comprising:

one or more processors;

a display; and

an input device, wherein the one or more processors are configured to perform a method comprising;

displaying, on the display, a risk assessment user interface including;

an agent selector indicating selection of a plurality of agents including a first agent and a second agent, and

a first curve indicating expected losses due to both the first agent and the second agent at a first probability level, wherein the first curve is generated based on a plurality of simulated claims, each respective claim of the plurality of simulated claims being associated with an agent of the plurality of agents, a date, and a settlement amount;

while the risk assessment user interface is displayed, receiving, at the input device, first user input de-selecting the second agent; and

after receiving the first user input,

aggregating expected losses due to respective claims of the plurality of simulated claims that are associated with the first agent, excluding respective claims of the plurality of simulated claims that are associated with the second agent, and

updating the first curve in the risk assessment user interface to indicate the aggregated expected losses due to the first agent and not the second agent.