REAL ESTATE BUBBLE PREDICTION BASED ON BIG DATA

• US 20170161854A1
• Filed: 12/05/2016
• Published: 06/08/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 12/04/2015
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Newmark & Company Real Estate Incorporated (Newmark Group, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Newmark & Company Real Estate Incorporated (Newmark Group, Inc.)
• Inventors: O'Moore, Marshall, Welch, Maureen, Segarra, Roosevelt V.
• Application Number:
  US15/369,334
• Publication Number:
  US 20170161854A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/16 Real estate

Abstract

Disclosed herein are a computer apparatus, non-transitory computer readable medium, and method for predicting real estate bubbles based on big data analysis. Historical variable data associated with real estate assets are obtained from remote data sources. Portions of the historical variable data are distributed among a plurality nodes. Historical real estate values are received from the plurality of nodes. A plurality of previous peaks in the historical real estate values are identified. A prediction of a future peak in real estate values is generated. An alert comprising the prediction is transmitted.

Claims

1. An apparatus comprising:

a memory device;

a network interface;

at least one processor to;

communicate via the network interface with remote data sources containing historical variable data associated with real estate assets, the historical variable data being stored in a plurality of diverse data sets;

distribute portions of the historical variable data via the network interface to a plurality of nodes on a network such that a size of a portion assigned to a respective node is in accordance with a real-time workload of the respective node, a total size of the historical variable data being larger than an available size in the memory device;

receive historical real estate values from the plurality of nodes that are based at least partially on the distributed portions of the historical variable data;

identify a plurality of previous peaks in the historical real estate values based at least partially on the historical real estate values received from the plurality of nodes;

generate a prediction of a future peak in real estate values based at least partially on the plurality of previous peaks; and

transmit an alert comprising the prediction.

2. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the historical variable data stored in the remote data sources comprises local appraisal based capitalization rates, national appraisal based capitalization rates, change in ten year bond yields, and two year constant maturity yields.

3. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein to generate the prediction the at least one processor is further configured to generate a distribution of future real estate value peak probabilities during a future time period.

4. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the historical variable data stored in the remote data sources comprises change in median consumer price index, consumer confidence, implied net operating income growth, change in employment, change in ten year bond yields, and two year constant maturity yields.

5. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the at least one processor is further configured to distribute the portions of the historical variable data in accordance with a map reduce algorithm.

6. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein to generate the prediction the at least one processor is further configured to predict the future peak within a given future time period, the given future time period being configurable.

7. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the at least one processor is further configured to identify a time duration between each of the plurality of previous peaks.

8. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the plurality of diverse data sets comprise structured data sets and unstructured data.

9. A method comprising:

communicating, by at least one processor, with remote data sources containing historical variable data associated with real estate assets, the historical variable data being stored in a plurality of diverse data sets;

distributing, by the at least one processor, portions of the historical variable data via a network interface to a plurality nodes on a network such that a size of a portion assigned to a respective node is in accordance with a real-time workload of the respective node, a total size of the historical variable data being larger than an available size in a memory device coupled to the at least one processor;

receiving, by the at least one processor, historical real estate values from the plurality of nodes that are based at least partially on the distributed portions of the historical variable data;

identifying, by the at least one processor, a plurality of previous peaks in the historical real estate values based at least partially on the historical real estate values received from the plurality of nodes;

generating, by the at least one processor, a prediction of a future peak in real estate values based at least partially on the plurality of previous peaks; and

transmitting, by the at least one processor, an alert comprising the prediction.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the historical variable data stored in the remote data sources comprises local appraisal based capitalization rates, national appraisal based capitalization rates, change in ten year bond yields, and two year constant maturity yields.

11. The method of claim 9, wherein generating the prediction of the future peak further comprises generating, by the at least one processor, a distribution of future value metric peak probabilities during a plurality of future time periods.

12. The method of claim 9, wherein the historical variable data stored in the remote data sources comprises change in median consumer price index, consumer confidence, implied net operating income growth, change in employment, change in ten year bond yields, and two year constant maturity yields.

13. The method of claim 9, wherein distributing the portions of the historical variable data further comprises distributing, by the at least one processor, the portions in accordance with a map reduce algorithm.

14. The method of claim 9, wherein generating the prediction further comprises predicting, by the at least one processor, the future peak within a given future time period, the given future time period being configurable.

15. The method of claim 9, further comprising identifying, by the at least one processor, a time period between each of the plurality of previous peaks.

16. The method of claim 9, wherein the plurality of diverse data sets comprise structured data sets and unstructured data sets.

17. A non-transitory computer readable medium with instructions stored therein which upon execution cause at least one processor to:

communicate via a network interface with remote data sources containing historical variable data associated with real estate assets, the historical variable data being stored in a plurality of diverse data sets;

distribute portions of the historical variable data via the network interface to a plurality nodes on a network such that a size of a portion assigned to a respective node is in accordance with a real-time workload of the respective node, a total size of the historical variable data being larger than an available size in a memory device coupled to the at least one processor;

receive historical real estate values from the plurality of nodes that are based at least partially on the distributed portions of the historical variable data;

identify a plurality of previous peaks in the historical real estate values based at least partially on the historical real estate values received from the plurality of nodes;

generate a prediction of a future peak in real estate values based at least partially on the plurality of previous peaks; and

transmit an alert comprising the prediction.

18. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17, wherein the historical variable data stored in the remote data sources comprises local appraisal based capitalization rates, national appraisal based capitalization rates, change in ten year bond yields, and two year constant maturity yields.

19. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17, wherein to generate the prediction of the future peak the instructions, when executed, further cause the at least one processor to generate a distribution of future real estate value peak probabilities during a future time period.

20. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17, wherein the historical variable data stored in the remote data sources comprises change in median consumer price index, consumer confidence, implied net operating income growth, change in employment, change in ten year bond yields, and two year constant maturity yields.

21. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17, wherein the instructions stored therein, when executed, further cause the at least one processor to distribute the portions of the historical variable data in accordance with a map reduce algorithm.

22. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17, wherein the instructions stored therein, when executed, further cause the at least one processor to generate the prediction of the future peak within a given future time period, the given future time period being configurable.

23. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17, wherein the instructions stored therein, when executed, further cause the at least one processor to identify a time duration between each of the plurality of previous peaks.

24. The non-transitory computer readable medium of claim 17, wherein the plurality of diverse data sets comprise structured data sets and unstructured data sets.