PHYSICAL COMPONENT PREDICTED REMAINING USEFUL LIFE

• US 20170293517A1
• Filed: 04/11/2016
• Published: 10/12/2017
• Est. Priority Date: 04/11/2016
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Simmonds Precision Products, Inc. (Raytheon Technologies Corporation d/b/a RTX)
• Original Assignee: Simmonds Precision Products, Inc. (Raytheon Technologies Corporation d/b/a RTX)
• Inventors: Dion, Bernard
• Application Number:
  US15/095,764
• Publication Number:
  US 20170293517A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/0721 within a central processing unit [CPU]
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/079 Root cause analysis, i.e. error or fault diagnosis in a hardware test environment G06F11/22; in a software test environment G06F11/36
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

In one example, a method includes generating a set of predicted load values for at least one physical component, each predicted load value corresponding uniquely to one of an ordered sequence of index values. The method further includes determining a set of predicted wear indicator values corresponding to the at least one physical component. Each predicted wear indicator value corresponds uniquely to one of the ordered sequence of index values and is determined based on one of the predicted load values that corresponds to a sequentially previous index value and one of the predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value. The method further includes determining a predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values, and outputting an indication of the predicted amount of remaining useful life.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

generating, by a computing device comprising at least one processor, a set of predicted load values for at least one physical component, each predicted load value from the set of predicted load values corresponding uniquely to one of an ordered sequence of index values;

determining, by the computing device, a set of predicted wear indicator values corresponding to the at least one physical component, each predicted wear indicator value of the set of predicted wear indicator values corresponding uniquely to one of the ordered sequence of index values and determined based on one of the predicted load values from the set of predicted load values that corresponds to a sequentially previous index value and one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value;

determining, by the computing device, a predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values; and

outputting, by the computing device, an indication of the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component.

2. The method of claim 1,

wherein determining the set of predicted wear indicator values comprises:

determining each predicted wear indicator value of the set of predicted wear indicator values according to the equation;

3. The method of claim 1,

wherein determining the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values comprises:

determining a relative change between each predicted wear indicator value and the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value; and

determining whether the relative change is within a confidence interval.

4. The method of claim 3,

wherein determining the relative change comprises determining the relative change according to the equation:

5. The method of claim 3,

wherein determining the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values further comprises:

identifying, in response to determining that the relative change is within the confidence interval, whether the predicted wear indicator value satisfies threshold wear criteria; and

determining, in response to identifying that the predicted wear indicator value satisfies the threshold wear criteria, the remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on a value of a current one of the ordered sequence of index values corresponding to the predicted wear indicator value.

6. The method of claim 3,

wherein determining the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values further comprises:

identifying, in response to determining that the relative change is not within the confidence interval, whether the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value satisfies threshold wear criteria; and

determining, in response to identifying that the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value satisfies the threshold wear criteria, the remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the sequentially previous index value.

7. The method of claim 1,

wherein determining the set of predicted load values for the at least one physical component comprises determining the set of predicted load values based on an operating regime of the at least one physical component.

8. The method of claim 7, further comprising:

measuring sensor data of the at least one physical component; and

determining the operating regime based on the measured sensor data.

9. A device comprising:

one or more processors; and

computer-readable memory encoded with instructions that, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the device to;

generate a set of predicted load values for at least one physical component of the aircraft, each predicted load value from the set of predicted load values corresponding uniquely to one of an ordered sequence of index values;

determine a set of predicted wear indicator values corresponding to the at least one physical component, each predicted wear indicator value of the set of predicted wear indicator values corresponding uniquely to one of the ordered sequence of index values and determined based on one of the predicted load values from the set of predicted load values that corresponds to a sequentially previous index value and one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value;

determine a predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component of the aircraft based on the set of predicted wear indicator values; and

output an indication of the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component of the aircraft.

10. The device of claim 9,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the device to determine the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the device to:

determine each predicted wear indicator value of the set of predicted wear indicator values according to the equation;

11. The device of claim 9,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the device to determine the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the device to:

determine a relative change between each predicted wear indicator value and the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value; and

determine whether the relative change is within a confidence interval.

12. The device of claim 11,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the device to determine the relative change according to the equation:

13. The device of claim 11,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the device to determine the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the device to:

identify, in response to determining that the relative change is within the confidence interval, whether the predicted wear indicator value satisfies threshold wear criteria; and

determine, in response to identifying that the predicted wear indicator value satisfies the threshold wear criteria, the remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on a value of a current one of the ordered sequence of index values corresponding to the predicted wear indicator value.

14. The device of claim 11,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the device to determine the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the device to:

identify, in response to determining that the relative change is not within the confidence interval, whether the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value satisfies threshold wear criteria; and

determine, in response to identifying that the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value satisfies the threshold wear criteria, the remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the sequentially previous index value.

15. The device of claim 9,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the device to:

receive measured sensor data of the at least one physical component;

determine an operating regime of the at least one physical component based on the measured sensor data; and

determine the set of predicted load values based on an operating regime of the at least one physical component.

16. A health and usage management system comprising:

at least one sensor disposed within an aircraft; and

a controller device disposed within the aircraft, the controller device comprising;

one or more processors; and

computer-readable memory encoded with instructions that, when executed by the at least one processor, cause the controller device to;

receive measured sensor data for at least one physical component of the aircraft from the at least one sensor;

determine, based on the measured sensor data, an operating regime of the at least one physical component;

generate a set of predicted load values for the least one physical component of the aircraft based on the operating regime, each predicted load value from the set of predicted load values corresponding uniquely to one of an ordered sequence of index values;

determine a set of predicted wear indicator values corresponding to the at least one physical component, each predicted wear indicator value of the set of predicted wear indicator values corresponding uniquely to one of the ordered sequence of index values and determined based on one of the predicted load values from the set of predicted load values that corresponds to a sequentially previous index value and one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value;

determine a predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component of the aircraft based on the set of predicted wear indicator values; and

output an indication of the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component of the aircraft.

17. The health and usage management system of claim 16,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the controller device to determine the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the controller device to:

determine each predicted wear indicator value of the set of predicted wear indicator values according to the equation;

18. The health and usage management system of claim 16,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the controller device to determine the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the controller device to:

determine a relative change between each predicted wear indicator value and the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value; and

determine whether the relative change is within a confidence interval.

19. The health and usage management system of claim 18,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the controller device to determine the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the controller device to:

identify, in response to determining that the relative change is within the confidence interval, whether the predicted wear indicator value satisfies threshold wear criteria; and

determine, in response to identifying that the predicted wear indicator value satisfies the threshold wear criteria, the remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on a value of a current one of the ordered sequence of index values corresponding to the predicted wear indicator value.

20. The health and usage management system of claim 18,

wherein the computer-readable memory is further encoded with instructions that, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the controller device to determine the predicted amount of remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the set of predicted wear indicator values by at least causing the controller device to:

identify, in response to determining that the relative change is not within the confidence interval, whether the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value satisfies threshold wear criteria; and

determine, in response to identifying that the one of the predicted wear indicator values from the set of predicted wear indicator values that corresponds to the sequentially previous index value satisfies the threshold wear criteria, the remaining useful life of the at least one physical component based on the sequentially previous index value.