Automated Tropical Storm Wind Radii Analysis and Forecasting

• US 20180081080A1
• Filed: 09/07/2017
• Published: 03/22/2018
• Est. Priority Date: 09/16/2016
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Government Of The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy
• Original Assignee: The Government Of The United States Of America, As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy
• Inventors: Sampson, Charles R., Knaff, John, Frost, Michael D., Schrader, Ann
• Granted Patent: US 10,641,924 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/00 Computer-aided design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202

Abstract

A computer-implemented system and methods that simplifies and improves the process for generating wind radii in tropical cyclones.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for analyzing wind radii in a tropical cyclone, comprising the steps of

receiving wind radii data indicative of a spatial radius of a wind having a speed at or above a predetermined threshold wind speed in at least one of four predetermined geographic quadrants,

the wind radii data including:

(a) data from a plurality of modeled forecasts of wind radii from at least one numerical weather prediction model, each of the modeled forecasts including a prediction of the wind radii for at least one future forecast period, and

(b) observational data of at least from a satellite source or other sensor;

quality checking the received data to ensure that data reflecting any physical impossibilities or other anomalies is not processed;

applying a predetermined time window to the received data to ensure that data having a date and time outside of a predetermined time frame is not processed;

for each of the modeled short-term forecasts, identifying non-zero wind radii for each predetermined threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant;

for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, computing an unweighted mean of the non-zero wind radii for each predetermined threshold wind speed to obtain a modeled short-term wind radius mean for that wind speed and that geographic quadrant;

for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, computing a mean of the modeled short-term wind radius mean and the observational data of the wind radius for that wind speed and that geographic quadrant to obtain a composite wind radius for each threshold wind speed and each geographic quadrant, the observational data for each wind speed in each geographic quadrant having a predetermined weight with respect to the modeled radius mean;

for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, smoothing a transition between the composite wind radius and a previously computed composite wind radius; and

for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, quality checking the composite wind radius to ensure that none of the composite wind radii reflect any physical impossibility or other anomaly.

2. A computer-implemented method for forecasting wind radii in a tropical cyclone, comprising the steps of:

receiving wind radii data indicative of a spatial radius of a wind having a speed at or above a predetermined threshold wind speed in at least one of four predetermined geographic quadrants,

the wind radii data including;

(a) data from a plurality of modeled forecasts of wind radii from at least one numerical weather prediction model, each of the modeled forecasts including a prediction of the wind radii for at least one future forecast period, and

(b) observational data of at least from a satellite source or other sensor;

quality checking the received data to ensure that data reflecting any physical impossibilities or other anomalies is not processed;

adjusting a time frame associated with each of the modeled forecasts to the current time;

for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant, correcting at least one predicted wind radius in at least one modeled forecast to conform to the received observational data, corrections being made to wind radii predicted in future forecast periods up to a predetermined future time period and not being made to wind radii predicted in future forecast periods after the predetermined future time period;

for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant, calculating a mean of the corrected predicted wind radius for the future forecast periods up to the predetermined future time period and calculating a mean of the uncorrected predicted wind radius for the future forecast periods after the predetermined future time period to obtain a wind radius value for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant for each of the future forecast periods; and

for each threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant and for each future forecast period, quality checking the calculated wind radii values that the calculated wind radii values do not reflect any physical impossibilities or other anomalies.