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Automated Tropical Storm Wind Radii Analysis and Forecasting

  • US 20180081080A1
  • Filed: 09/07/2017
  • Published: 03/22/2018
  • Est. Priority Date: 09/16/2016
  • Status: Active Grant
First Claim
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1. A computer-implemented method for analyzing wind radii in a tropical cyclone, comprising the steps ofreceiving wind radii data indicative of a spatial radius of a wind having a speed at or above a predetermined threshold wind speed in at least one of four predetermined geographic quadrants,the wind radii data including:

  • (a) data from a plurality of modeled forecasts of wind radii from at least one numerical weather prediction model, each of the modeled forecasts including a prediction of the wind radii for at least one future forecast period, and(b) observational data of at least from a satellite source or other sensor;

    quality checking the received data to ensure that data reflecting any physical impossibilities or other anomalies is not processed;

    applying a predetermined time window to the received data to ensure that data having a date and time outside of a predetermined time frame is not processed;

    for each of the modeled short-term forecasts, identifying non-zero wind radii for each predetermined threshold wind speed in each geographic quadrant;

    for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, computing an unweighted mean of the non-zero wind radii for each predetermined threshold wind speed to obtain a modeled short-term wind radius mean for that wind speed and that geographic quadrant;

    for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, computing a mean of the modeled short-term wind radius mean and the observational data of the wind radius for that wind speed and that geographic quadrant to obtain a composite wind radius for each threshold wind speed and each geographic quadrant, the observational data for each wind speed in each geographic quadrant having a predetermined weight with respect to the modeled radius mean;

    for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, smoothing a transition between the composite wind radius and a previously computed composite wind radius; and

    for each threshold wind speed and in each geographic quadrant, quality checking the composite wind radius to ensure that none of the composite wind radii reflect any physical impossibility or other anomaly.

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