ENSEMBLE FORECAST STORM DAMAGE RESPONSE SYSTEM FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

• US 20190311280A1
• Filed: 04/09/2018
• Published: 10/10/2019
• Est. Priority Date: 04/09/2018
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Florida Power & Light Company (NextEra Energy, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Florida Power & Light Company (NextEra Energy, Inc.)
• Inventors: Rule, Brick, Rentz, Iliana M., Drum, Timothy D., Dorr, William M., Hynes, Paul R., Dubs, Jeffrey D., Kirby, Andrew W., Palmieri, Steven J., Devarona, Eduardo R.
• Granted Patent: US 11,361,236 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/00 Meteorology
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/20 Design optimisation, verification or simulation optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 20/20 Ensemble learning
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks

Abstract

A storm damage response system includes a storm ensemble database that stores ensemble forecast models associated with respective potential storm paths of a given storm across a geographic area and an inventory database that stores inventory data associated with location and characteristics of power-providing equipment and characteristics of a consumer population in the geographic area. A storm damage model algorithm generates a storm response plan comprising an operational procedure for repairing or maintaining power transmission and distribution electric systems to mitigate storm damage impact based on generating a probabilistic model for each of the ensemble forecast models based on the inventory data and calculating a statistical impact value associated with the probabilistic model based on an aggregate of iterative probabilistic simulations for the respective ensemble forecast model. The storm response plan can be generated based on the relative statistical impact value of the probabilistic model of each of the ensemble forecast models.

Claims

1. A storm damage response system comprising:

a storm ensemble database configured to store a plurality of ensemble forecast models associated with respective potential storm paths of a given storm across a geographic area;

an inventory database configured to store inventory data associated with location and characteristics associated with power-providing equipment in the geographic area with respect to power generator systems; and

a storm damage model control system configured to implement a storm damage model algorithm to generate a storm response plan comprising an operational procedure for repairing or maintaining the power generator systems to mitigate storm damage impact, the storm damage model algorithm being configured to generate a probabilistic model for each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models based on the inventory data and to calculate a statistical impact value associated with the probabilistic model based on an aggregate of a plurality of iterative probabilistic simulations for the probabilistic model associated with the respective one of the plurality of ensemble forecast models, the storm damage model control system being configured to generate the storm response plan based on the relative statistical impact value of the probabilistic model of each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models.

2. The system of claim 1, further comprising a response plan reporting system configured to publish the storm response plan to a plurality of organizations associated with the power generator systems to disseminate at least a portion of the operational procedure to each of the plurality of organizations.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein the plurality of organizations comprises at least one of human resources, power delivery, and customer service associated with the power generator systems.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the storm ensemble database is configured to store the plurality of ensemble forecast models as provided from and updated by a weather forecasting service to provide the storm response plan as a predictive response plan for the power generator systems.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the storm ensemble database is configured to store the plurality of ensemble forecast models as at least one of simulated and historical storms associated with the geographic area to provide the storm response plan as a prophylactic maintenance plan for the power generator systems.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the storm damage model control system comprises a model generator configured to generate the probabilistic model associated with each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models, the probabilistic model comprising probabilistic data associated with operational failure of the power-providing equipment, as defined by the inventory data, based on a portion of the geographic area that is associated with the potential storm path of the respective one of the plurality of ensemble forecast models.

7. The system of claim 6, wherein the storm damage model control system is further configured to assign a predetermined percentage of failure of each of at least a portion of the power-providing equipment over a range of storm characteristics based on maintenance data of the power-providing equipment associated with the inventory data, wherein the probabilistic data is generated based on the predetermined percentage of failure of each of the at least a portion of the power-providing equipment with respect to the given storm.

8. The system of claim 6, wherein the storm damage model control system further comprises a simulator system configured to implement the plurality of iterative probabilistic simulations on the probabilistic model associated with each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models to generate the statistical impact value for the respective probabilistic model based on the plurality of iterative probabilistic simulations, the statistical impact value being indicative of a cost-based resource allocation estimate based on the probabilistic data associated with the operational failure of the power-providing equipment relative to at least one of time, cost, resource availability, and storm severity constraints.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein the storm damage model control system further comprises:

a scenario comparator configured to select the probabilistic model associated with a respective one of the plurality of ensemble forecast models based on the statistical impact value; and

a plan generator configured to generate the storm response plan based on the inventory data associated with the selected probabilistic model.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the storm response plan comprises:

an operational level response plan associated with the selected probabilistic model, the operational response level plan comprising geographic-based resource allocation and inventory repair action plans based on the inventory data and the respective one of the plurality of ensemble forecast models; and

an executive level response plan comprising a total estimated resources and an estimated timeline for providing recovery for affected customer outages resulting from the storm damage impact with respect to the power generator systems based on an aggregate impact scenario associated with the plurality of ensemble forecast models.

11. A method for generating a storm response plan comprising an operational procedure for repairing or maintaining power generator systems to mitigate storm damage impact, the method comprising:

providing a plurality of ensemble forecast models associated with respective potential storm paths of a given storm across a geographic area via a storm ensemble database;

providing inventory data associated with location and characteristics associated with power-providing equipment in the geographic area with respect to the power generator systems via an inventory database;

generating a probabilistic model for each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models, the probabilistic model comprising probabilistic data associated with operational failure of the power-providing equipment, as defined by the inventory data, based on a portion of the geographic area that is associated with the potential storm path of the respective one of the plurality of ensemble forecast models;

implementing a plurality of iterative probabilistic simulations for the probabilistic model associated with each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models;

calculating a statistical impact value associated with the probabilistic model associated with each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models;

generating the storm response plan based on the relative statistical impact value of the probabilistic model of each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models; and

publishing the storm response plan to at least one organization associated with the power generator systems to disseminate at least a portion of the operational procedure to each of the at least one organization.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein generating the storm recover plan comprises:

generating an operational level response plan comprising geographic-based resource allocation and inventory repair action plans; and

generating an executive level response plan comprising a total resource cost and a timeline for providing recovery for affected customer outages resulting from the storm damage impact with respect to the power generator systems.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein providing the plurality of ensemble forecast models comprises at least one of generating simulated storms and providing data associated with historical storms associated with the geographic area to provide the storm response plan as a prophylactic maintenance plan for the power generator systems.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein calculating the statistical impact value comprises calculating the statistical impact value to be indicative of a cost-based resource allocation estimate based on the probabilistic data associated with the operational failure of the power-providing equipment relative to at least one of time, cost, resource availability, and storm severity constraints.

15. The method of claim 11, further comprising assigning a predetermined percentage of failure of each of at least a portion of the power-providing equipment over a range of storm characteristics based on maintenance data of the power-providing equipment associated with the inventory data, wherein generating the probabilistic model comprises generating the probabilistic data based on the predetermined percentage of failure of each of the at least a portion of the power-providing equipment with respect to the given storm.

16. A storm damage response system comprising:

a storm ensemble database configured to store a plurality of ensemble forecast models associated with respective potential storm paths of a given storm across a geographic area;

an inventory database configured to store inventory data associated with location and characteristics associated with power-providing equipment in the geographic area with respect to power generator systems;

a storm damage model control system configured to implement a storm damage model algorithm to generate a storm response plan comprising an operational procedure for repairing or maintaining the power generator systems to mitigate storm damage impact, the storm damage model algorithm being configured to generate a probabilistic model for each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models based on a predetermined percentage of failure of each of the at least a portion of the power-providing equipment with respect to the given storm, and to calculate a statistical impact value associated with the probabilistic model based on an aggregate of a plurality of iterative probabilistic simulations for the probabilistic model associated with the respective one of the plurality of ensemble forecast models, the storm damage model control system being configured to generate the storm response plan based on the relative statistical impact value of the probabilistic model of each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models, the storm response plan comprising an operational level response plan comprising geographic-based resource allocation and inventory repair action plans and an executive level response plan comprising a total resource cost and a timeline for providing recovery for affected customer outages resulting from the storm damage impact with respect to the power generator systems.

17. The system of claim 16, further comprising a response plan reporting system configured to publish the storm response plan to a plurality of organizations associated with the power generator systems to disseminate at least a portion of the operational procedure to each of the plurality of organizations.

18. The system of claim 16, wherein the storm ensemble database is configured to store the plurality of ensemble forecast models as at least one of simulated and historical storms associated with the geographic area to provide the storm response plan as a prophylactic maintenance plan for the power generator systems.

19. The system of claim 16, wherein the storm damage model control system comprises a model generator configured to generate the probabilistic model associated with each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models, the probabilistic model comprising probabilistic data associated with operational failure of the power-providing equipment, as defined by the inventory data, based on a portion of the geographic area that is associated with the potential storm path of the respective one of the plurality of ensemble forecast models.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein the storm damage model control system further comprises a simulator system configured to implement the plurality of iterative probabilistic simulations on the probabilistic model associated with each of the plurality of ensemble forecast models to generate the statistical impact value for the respective probabilistic model based on the plurality of iterative probabilistic simulations, the statistical impact value being indicative of a cost-based resource allocation estimate based on the probabilistic data associated with the operational failure of the power-providing equipment relative to at least one of time, cost, resource availability, and storm severity constraints.