TEMPORAL BIAS CORRECTION IN WIND FORECASTING
First Claim
1. A method comprising:
- extracting, from a forecast that is applicable to a period and a geographical area, a set of characteristics of the period;
selecting, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of characteristics;
computing, using a processor and a memory, from the set of historical data, a function to represent a time discrepancy between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed;
computing a bias value from the function;
adjusting the forecast, using the processor and the memory, by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a wind turbine located at a location in the geographical area.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A set of characteristics of a period is extracted from a forecast that is applicable to the period and a geographical area. From a repository, a set of historical data is selected corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data including a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of characteristics. From the set of historical data, a function is computed to represent a discrepancy between the historical forecast and the actual measurement over the historical period. A bias value is computed from the function. By applying the bias to a value in the forecast, an adjusted forecast is produced of winds at a wind turbine located at a location in the geographical area.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method comprising:
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extracting, from a forecast that is applicable to a period and a geographical area, a set of characteristics of the period; selecting, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of characteristics; computing, using a processor and a memory, from the set of historical data, a function to represent a time discrepancy between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed; computing a bias value from the function; adjusting the forecast, using the processor and the memory, by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a wind turbine located at a location in the geographical area. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
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7. A computer usable program product comprising one or more computer-readable storage devices, and program instructions stored on at least one of the one or more storage devices, the stored program instructions comprising:
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program instructions to extract, from a forecast that is applicable to a period and a geographical area, a set of characteristics of the period; program instructions to select, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of characteristics; program instructions to compute from the set of historical data, a function to represent a time discrepancy between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed; program instructions to compute a bias value from the function; program instructions to adjust the forecast by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a wind turbine located at a location in the geographical area. - View Dependent Claims (8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
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15. A computer system comprising one or more processors, one or more computer-readable memories, and one or more computer-readable storage devices, and program instructions stored on at least one of the one or more storage devices for execution by at least one of the one or more processors via at least one of the one or more memories, the stored program instructions comprising:
program instructions to extract, from a forecast that is applicable to a period and a geographical area, a set of characteristics of the period; program instructions to select, from a repository, a set of historical data corresponding to a historical period, the set of historical data comprising a historical forecast related to the geographical area, and an actual measurement of wind at a location in the geographical area, the set of historical data having a subset of the set of characteristics; program instructions to compute from the set of historical data, a function to represent a time discrepancy between the historical forecast reaching a value of wind speed and the actual measurement reaching the value of wind speed; program instructions to compute a bias value from the function; program instructions to adjust the forecast by applying the bias to a value in the forecast, to produce an adjusted forecast of winds at a wind turbine located at a location in the geographical area. - View Dependent Claims (16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
Specification