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Interactive statistical system and method for predicting expert decisions

  • US 5,005,143 A
  • Filed: 09/25/1989
  • Issued: 04/02/1991
  • Est. Priority Date: 06/19/1987
  • Status: Expired due to Fees
First Claim
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1. A method for comparing the analyses of a plurality of experts in a particular field, comprising the steps of:

  • (a) establishing a set of output actions for combinatory situations, said combinatory situations defined by a plurality of input parameters having input values which define a particular case situation;

    (b) for each expert,(1) establishing a decision making structure having a plurality of linked nodes extending from a first node and ending in a terminal node with each node defining a question;

    (2) entering the input values of the input parameters defining a case situation to be analyzed;

    (3) determining which input values of the particular case situation are significant input values from node to node and predicting which response the expert would make for a question posed at the first node based on the significant input values and then predicting additional responses for questions posed at each subsequent node, said subsequent nodes forming a path based on the prior predicted responses through the decision making structure;

    (4) repeating step (3) through the linked nodes until a predicted response is an output action at a terminal node of the decision-making structure; and

    (5) determining the probability that the expert would have selected the output action predicted in step (4).(c) comparing the determinations of which input values are significant input values from step (b) (3) and the output action arrived at in step (b) (4) of an expert'"'"'s decision making structure with that of another expert'"'"'s decision making structure to determine which input values are most significant in arriving at an output action.

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