Deterministic, probabilistic and subjective modeling system

• US 5,331,579 A
• Filed: 04/02/1993
• Issued: 07/19/1994
• Est. Priority Date: 08/02/1989
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Westinghouse Electric Company LLC (Brookfield Asset Management Incorporated)
• Original Assignee: Westinghouse Electric Company LLC (Brookfield Asset Management Incorporated)
• Inventors: Candris, Aristides S., Nath, Raymond J., Maguire, Harold T. Jr., Frost, David R., Wiesemann, John S.
• Primary Examiner(s): Harvey, Jack B.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Ramirez, Ellis B.
• Application Number:
  US08/043,141
• Time in Patent Office: 473 Days
• Field of Search: 364/578, 364/488, 364/512, 395/500, 395/919, 395/920
• US Class Current: 703/2
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2111/08 Probabilistic or stochastic CAD
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/13 Architectural design, e.g. computer-aided architectural design [CAAD] related to design of buildings, bridges, landscapes, production plants or roads
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 30/20 Design optimisation, verification or simulation optimisation, verification or simulation of circuit designs G06F30/30
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 706/92 Simulation

Abstract

A modeling system that arranges the model in a hierarchical structure of communicating and independently executing object modules controlled by an overall supervisor. Each object represents a component or a system and includes an object controller which communicates with other object modules, an object error checker and an object model. The objects communicate through a database accessible by all objects. The structure of the object module and the hierarchical structure itself are standardized allowing new components or systems to be added by adding a standard object module which includes an object model that is unique to the object being modeled. The controller for an object causes subobjects upon which the object model depends for data to be executed prior to execution of the object model. Such bottom up model traversal insures that models do not execute until all needed data is available. The error check module checks the controller and model modules to make sure they are executing properly. The object model includes a deterministic equation based component aging model, a statistical based component aging model and expert rules that combine the deterministic and statistical model with the knowledge of experts to determine the current state of the object and make recommendations concerning future actions concerning the object. A maintenance module is also included along side the supervisor that allows maintenance actions for the objects to be taken into consideration.

Claims

1. A modeling system, comprising:

a computer, comprising;

supervisory means for performing supervisory functions of the system;

object means for modeling objects in the system responsive to a simulation cycle initiated by said supervisory means, said object means comprising object models where each object model comprises modeling means for deterministically, probabilistically and heuristically modeling the object and producing object expected life state information over a simulated passage of future time including multiple time points of the future time; and

a display connected to said computer and displaying the state information.

2. A system as recited in claim 1, further comprising a common database to which all object models have access.

3. A system as recited in claim 2, wherein said modeling means comprises:

expert maintenance determination means for changing the state of the object responsive to maintenance inputs;

expert state determination means for determining a current state of the object;

state change equation means for determining the change of state of an object from the current state; and

expert recommendation means for providing recommendations for state changes.

4. A system as recited in claim 3, wherein said object models are arranged in a hierarchy requiring execution completion of lower levels of the hierarchy before upper levels can complete execution.

5. A system as recited in claim 4, wherein an upper level object model controls a lower level object model execution sequence.

6. A system as recited in claim 5, wherein each object model further comprises:

controlling means for performing execution control functions for the object; and

error determination means for determining whether the object model is functioning correctly.

7. A system as recited in claim 5, wherein said supervisory means, said controlling means, said error determination means and said modeling means are independently executing processes.

8. A system as recited in claim 5, wherein said controlling means includes an execution sequence ordered list of lower level object models.

9. A system as recited in claim 6, wherein a user designates a subset of said hierarchy and said controlling means controls execution responsive to the subset.

10. A modeling system, comprising:

a computer system, including;

supervisory means for performing system supervision;

a common database accessible by said supervisory means; and

a hierarchical object model tree having object models executing bottom to top and each of said models comprising;

modeling means for modeling a corresponding object and including;

expert maintenance means for changing, over a simulated passage of future time including multiple time points of the future time, one of a current and future states of the corresponding object responsive to a maintenance schedule;

expert state determination means for determining the current state of the corresponding object;

state change equations for determining the future states of the object from the current state; and

expert recommendation means for providing recommendations for state changes;

controlling means for initiating an ordered execution of objects lower in the hierarchy prior to initiating execution of said modeling means; and

error determination means for determining whether said modeling means and said controlling means are executing; and

a display connected to said computer and displaying the current state, the future states and the recommendations over the simulated passage of the future time including the multiple time points of the future time.

11. A modeling system apparatus, comprising:

supervisory means for performing supervisory functions of the system;

object means for modeling objects in the system responsive to a simulation cycle initiated by said supervisory means, said object means comprising object models performing feedback of object state information over a simulated passage future of time, where each object model comprises modeling means for deterministically, probabilistically and heuristically modeling the object and producing object expected life state information over the simulated passage of the future time including multiple time points of the future time; and

display means for displaying the expected life state information.

12. A modeling system apparatus, comprising:

supervisory means for performing system supervision;

a common database accessible by said supervisory means;

a hierarchical object model tree having object models executing bottom to top and each of said models comprising;

modeling means for modeling a corresponding object by performing feedback of object state information over a simulated passage of future time and including;

expert maintenance means for changing, over the simulated passage of future time including multiple points of the future time, one of a current and future states of the corresponding object responsive to a maintenance schedule;

expert state determination means for determining the current state of the corresponding object;

state change equations for determining the future states of the object from the current state; and

expert recommendation means for providing recommendations for state changes;

controlling means for initiating an ordered execution of objects lower in the hierarchy prior to initiating execution of said modeling means; and

error determination means for determining whether said modeling means and said controlling means are executing; and

display means for displaying the current state, the future states and the recommendations over the simulated passage of the future time including the multiple points of the future time.