Business demand projection system and method

• US 5,459,656 A
• Filed: 02/26/1993
• Issued: 10/17/1995
• Est. Priority Date: 09/12/1989
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Stafanpolus KG Limited Liability Company
• Original Assignee: Park City Group Incorporated
• Inventors: Fields, Randall K., Quinn, Paul R., Tondevold, Barrie R., Pond, Jamie T.
• Primary Examiner(s): NOT, DEFINED
• Assistant Examiner(s): NOT, DEFINED
• Application Number:
  US08/023,111
• Time in Patent Office: 963 Days
• Field of Search: 364/400, 364/401, 364/408, 364/406, 364/492, 364/468, 395/600, 395/925
• US Class Current: 705/7.22
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06312 Adjustment or analysis of established resource schedule, e.g. resource or task levelling, or dynamic rescheduling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06314 Calendaring for a resource
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A business demand based control system and method stores past business demand data during past time intervals for use with other data to compute business demands in such manner that the past business demand data is used to project the business demands in current and near-future time intervals. The system measures and stores the business demand data for a plurality of time intervals and a plurality of products or tasks, and projects the business demand for a plurality of products or tasks for near-future time intervals using percentage based demand curves. The system allows the creation of a number of demand curves for the items to determine near future demand, using defined functions and variables. Business demand projections for current and near-future time intervals are revised for a plurality of business items in response to variances in actual business demand data in time intervals just prior to the current time interval.

Claims

1. A computer implemented production scheduling system for projecting future business demand in a plurality of time intervals in at least one business day, for at least one business item, accounting for recurring variations in actual business demand for the business item, and for scheduling production of the business item, the system comprising:

a memory divided into separate files including a database of day models, each day model defining any recurring business event affecting a volume or distribution of actual business demand data for at least one business item over a plurality of time intervals during the business day, and including a past business demand curve for each business item, each past business demand curve containing in each of the plurality of time intervals during a business day a percentage of total actual business demand for a business item, and including a sales day file for storing for each business day at least one day model, each day model including at least one past product demand curve;

a data input means for receiving and entering actual business demand data, and for storing the actual business demand data in the memory;

a target projection means coupled to the memory for projecting for a business item a target total demand for at least one business day according to the past business demand curve for the business item in at least one day model, the target means storing the target total demand in the memory;

an interval projection means coupled to the memory for projecting for the business item an interval business demand curve for the plurality of future time intervals by distributing the projected target total demand for the business item over the future time intervals according to the past business demand curve for the business item, for projecting for each future time interval, business demand for the business item, the interval projection means storing the interval business demand curve in the memory;

monitoring means coupled to the memory, for monitoring actual business demand data for the business item in selected past time intervals, and storing the actual business demand data in the memory;

revision means coupled to the memory, for retrieving from the memory the interval business demand curve, and the actual business demand data for the business item in the selected past time intervals, and revising the interval business demand curve for a current and selected future time intervals in response to variations in the business demand data for the business item in the selected past time intervals relative to the projected interval business demand curve for the selected past time intervals for the business item to provide a revised projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals for the business item; and

production schedule means coupled to the memory for producing a production schedule for the business item according to the projected target total demand, and the interval business demand curve.

2. The system according to claim 1 further comprising:

a day model authoring means for defining and storing in the memory a plurality of day models.

3. The system according to claim 1 further comprising:

a master demand curve definition authoring means for defining and storing in the memory, a plurality of master demand curve definitions, each master demand curve definition representing a selected business item for which past actual business demand data is represented in a past business demand curve, and including a weighting factor for applying the past actual business demand data for the business item to the past business demand curve for the business item.

4. The system according to claim 1, wherein the interval projection means for projecting for a business item an interval business demand comprises:

means for defining at least one business item for production in accordance with the projected target total demand for the business item; and

,

means for defining a task schedule for at least one task associated with production of the business item.

5. The system according to claim 1 wherein:

the data input means includes means for defining and storing in the memory location specific factors contributing to production of the business item; and

,

wherein the interval projection means includes means for adjusting the interval business demand curve according to the location specific factors.

6. The system according to claim 1 wherein the interval projection means for projecting for a business item an interval business demand curve comprises:

means for defining for the business item a function for projecting target total demand over a plurality of selected time intervals using pre-defined operators for accessing past actual business demand data stored in the memory.

7. The system according to claim 1 wherein the target projection means for projecting for a business item the target total demand over a plurality of future time intervals comprises:

means for selecting at least one business day for projecting the target total demand for the business item;

means for determining a day model for the business day;

means for selecting a calculation rule for determining the projected target total demand for the business item;

means for determining the projected target total demand by applying the calculation rule to actual business demand data for the business item; and

means for storing in/he memory the projected target total demand for the business item for the selected business day.

8. The system according to claim 1 wherein the interval projection means for projecting for a business item an interval business demand curve defines the projected interval business demand in each of the plurality of time intervals as a percentage of target total demand for the business item for the plurality of time intervals, according to percentage variations in volume or distribution of actual business demand data for the business item in the past business demand curve for the business item in a selected day model.

9. The system according to claim 1 further comprising:

updating means for periodically updating the past business demand curve for the business item with actual business demand data for recent past time intervals, the actual business demand data applied to the past business demand curve according to a weighting factor.

10. The system according to claim 9, further comprising:

means for selecting at least one business day for updating in the memory;

means for determining the day model associated with the selected business day in the sales day file;

means for retrieving from the database the past business demand curves of the day model associated with the selected business day;

means for retrieving from the database the actual business demand data for each business item for which there is a past product demand curve in the day model;

means for updating the past business demand curve for a business item, where the updated past business demand curve in each time interval equals (the actual business demand data for the business item in the time interval multiplied by the weighting factor for the past business demand curve), plus, (one minus the weighting factor, multiplied by the past business demand curve in the time interval); and

means for storing the updated past business demand curve in the memory.

11. The system according to claim 1, wherein the revision means for revising the interval business demand curve comprises:

means for retrieving from the memory the projected target total demand for the business item for the business day including the selected past time intervals monitored;

means for retrieving from the memory the actual business demand data for the business item for the selected past time intervals;

means for determining as a percentage of the projected target total demand the actual business demand data for the selected past time intervals;

means for determining a differential between the projected interval business demand through the selected past time intervals and the actual business demand data through the selected past time intervals; and

means for revising the projected interval business demand curve in selected future time intervals according to the differential.

12. The system according to claim 1 wherein the revision means for revising the interval business demand curve comprises:

means for determining a differential between the projected interval business demand for a business item in the selected past time intervals and business demand data in the selected past time intervals for revising the projected interval business demand curve for the business item through selected future time intervals where the differential exceeds a defined threshold by adjusting the projected interval business demand curve for the selected future time intervals by the differential between the projected interval business demand curve and the past actual business demand data.

13. The system according to claim 1 wherein the revision means for revising the interval business demand curve comprises:

means for determining a differential between the projected interval business demand for a business item in the selected past time intervals and business demand data in the selected past time intervals for revising the interval business demand curve for the business item through selected future time intervals where the differential is between a negative threshold and a zero value by increasing the projected interval business demand curve for the selected future time intervals by a positive value of the differential multiplied by a percentage of projected target total demand for the business item remaining in the selected future time intervals.

14. The system according to claim 1 wherein the revision means for revising the interval business demand curve comprises:

means for executing at least one of a plurality of different logic manipulations revising the projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals in response to deviations of actual business demand data from the projected interval business demand in selected past time intervals.

15. The system according to claim 1 comprising:

means for displaying the projected target total demand for a business day, the interval business demand for selected time intervals, the business demand data for the selected time intervals, and the revised interval business demand curve for recent past, current, and near-future time intervals for the business items.

16. The system according to claim 1 wherein:

the input means receives actual business demand data for the business items and time intervals from an electronic signalling means receiving data signals indicative of the actual business demand data.

17. The system according to claim 1 wherein:

the memory receives and stores in the database actual business demand data for the business items in quarter hour intervals.

18. The system according to claim 1 wherein the revision means for revising the interval business demand curve comprises:

means for determining a differential between the projected interval business demand for a business item in the selected past time intervals and business demand data in the selected past time intervals for revising the interval business demand curve for the business item through selected future time intervals where the differential exceeds a negative threshold by decreasing the projected interval business demand curve for the selected future time intervals by a positive value of the differential, and increasing the projected interval business demand by a growth factor.

19. A computer implemented method for projecting future business demand data in a plurality of time intervals during at least one business day for a plurality of business items, for producing selected business items during the business day, accounting for recurring variations in actual business demand data, the method operable in a computer system including a memory for storing a plurality of files and procedures, the method comprising the steps of:

authoring a demand curve master file, including a master demand curve definition for each business item and a weighting factor, each master demand curve definition associated with at least one day model, and storing the demand curve master file in the memory;

storing in the memory a past business demand curve file comprising a plurality of past business demand curves, each past business demand curve comprising actual business demand data for a business item in a plurality of time intervals as percentages of total actual business demand data for the business item over the plurality of time intervals, wherein there is one past business demand curve for each master demand curve definition associated with each day model;

storing in the memory an actual business demand file including actual business demand data for each business item in each of a plurality of time intervals;

storing in the memory a sales day file including actual business demand data for each business item on each business day, and associating with each business day at least one day model;

periodically updating the plurality of past business demand curves in the past business demand curve file for recent past time intervals by applying the actual business demand data for each business item in each recent past time interval from the actual business demand file to the past business demand curve for the business item according to the weighting factor of the master demand curve definition in the demand curve master file, and storing the updated past demand demand curves in the memory;

projecting a target total demand for each business item over a plurality of time intervals, and storing each target total demand in the memory;

projecting an interval business demand for each business item in each of a plurality of future time intervals and storing each interval business demand in the memory;

displaying the target total demand, and interval business demand for selected business items;

producing selected business items in the plurality of time intervals according to the projected interval business demand for the selected business items;

monitoring actual business demand data for the selected business items in selected past time intervals;

revising the interval business demand for the selected business items for a current and selected future time intervals in response to the variations in actual business demand data in the selected past time intervals relative to the projected interval business demand for the selected past time intervals to revise the projected interval business demand for plurality of business items in the selected future time intervals; and

,

producing the selected business items in the selected future time intervals according to the revised projected interval business demand.

20. The method according to claim 19, further comprising the steps of:

authoring a day model file including a plurality of day models, each day model representing a recurring business event affecting a volume or distribution of actual business demand data for the business items over a plurality of time intervals;

associating each day model with a day model designator;

defining an opening and closing operating time associated with the day model; and

storing the day model file in the memory.

21. The method according to claim 20 where the step of periodically updating a plurality of past business demand curves further comprises the steps of:

selecting at least one business day to be updated;

retrieving from the sales day file the day model associated with a selected business day;

determining frown the day model file which past business demand curves in the past business demand curve file to update according to the day model associated with the selected business day, and retrieving the past business demand curves for the day model from past business demand curve file;

retrieving from the actual business demand file actual business demand data for each business item in a plurality of time intervals of the selected business day;

updating the past business demand curve for each business item, where an updated value of the past business demand curve in each time interval equals (actual business demand data in the time interval multiplied by the weighting factor for the past business demand curve) plus, (one minus the weighting factor, multiplied by the value of the past business demand curve); and

storing the updated past business demand curves in the past business demand curve file.

22. The method according to claim 19, where the step of authoring the demand curve master file further comprises the steps of:

defining a master demand curve definition for at least one business item;

designating a descriptor for each master demand curve definition; and

designating for each master demand curve definition a weighting factor for updating the past business demand curves in the past business demand curve file for weighting actual business demand data for a business item from the actual business demand file relative to the past business demand curve for the business item.

23. The method according to claim 19 further comprising the steps of:

authoring a calculations rules file, and storing the calculations rules file in the memory;

authoring a target master file by;

designating selected business items for which the target total demand is to be projected;

designating for each selected business item at least one calculation rule in a calculation rules file for determining the projected target total demand over a plurality of time intervals using actual business demand data stored in the sales day file; and

storing the projected target total demand in the memory.

24. The method according to claim 23 where the step of authoring the calculations rules file further comprises the steps of:

defining a plurality of calculations rules, each calculation rule comprising a plurality of functions, operators, or variables, for retrieving from the memory actual business demand data and curves, and for calculating projected target total demand; and

storing the calculations rules file in the memory.

25. The method according to claim 23 further comprising the steps of:

authoring a production planning master file by;

defining a plurality of business items to be produced, and at least one production task for producing each business items;

defining for each production task a frequency factor for determining a frequency for the production task;

selecting, for each business item or production task, a calculation rule from the calculations rules file for determining in conjunction with the frequency factor, the frequency for producing the business item or production task; and

storing the production planning master file in the memory.

26. The method according to claim 25 further comprising the steps of:

authoring a production planning frequency file by;

designating a plurality of production tasks from the production planning master file;

defining a production starting time, a production ending time, or a duration value, and a frequency factor for each production task;

storing the production planning frequency file in the memory; and

,

producing the selected business item using at least one production task according its frequency factor and the production times to provide the projected interval business demand for the selected business items in selected future time intervals.

27. The method according to claim 23 where the step of determining the projected target total demand for each business item over a plurality of time intervals further comprises the steps of:

selecting at least one business day for projecting the target total demand for the plurality of business items;

retrieving from the sales day file a day model associated with the selected business day, the day model associated with selected master demand curve definitions, each master demand curve definition associated with a past business demand curve;

determining in the target master file the plurality of business items for which the target total demand is to be projected;

projecting for each business item the target total demand using a calculation rule in the calculations rules file to access and accumulate total demand for the business item from the past business demand curve associated with the master demand curve definition and the day model; and

storing the projected target total demand for each business item for the selected business day in the memory.

28. The method according to claim 19 where the step of projecting for each business item the interval business demand for a plurality of future time intervals further comprises the steps of:

selecting a business day for projecting the business demand data in each of the plurality of time intervals;

retrieving from the memory the projected target total demand for the business items for the selected business day and the day model associated with the selected business day;

retrieving from the calculations rules file a calculation rule;

retrieving from the past business demand curve file a past business demand curve for each business item for the retrieved day model of the selected business day;

projecting for each time interval, the interval business demand for each business item by applying the projected target total demand for each business item for the business day to the time interval according to the calculation rule; and

storing the interval business demand for the business items in a production planning work file for use in producing the business items.

29. The method according to claim 19 where the step of revising the interval business demand for the selected business items comprises the steps of:

retrieving from the memory the projected target total demand for the selected business items for the selected past time interval;

retrieving from the actual business demand file the actual business demand data for the selected business items;

determining for each selected business item a percentage differential between the projected target total demand for the business item through the selected past time intervals and the actual business demand data for the business item through the selected past time intervals; and

revising the projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals according to the percentage differential.

30. The method according to claim 29 where the step of revising the projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals according to the percentage differential comprises the step of:

adjusting the projected interval business demand for the future time intervals by the percent differential between the projected interval business demand and the past actual business demand data, where the percent differential exceeds a defined threshold.

31. The method according to claim 29 where the step of revising the projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals according to the percentage differential comprises the step of:

executing at least one logic manipulation to revise the projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals in response to the deviations of actual business demand data compared with the projected interval business demand in selected past time intervals.

32. The method according to claim 29 where the step of revising the projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals according to the percentage differential comprises the step of:

increasing the projected interval business demand for the selected future time intervals by a positive value of the percentage differential multiplied by a percentage of projected target total demand remaining in the future tune intervals, where the percentage differential is between a negative threshold and a zero value.

33. The method according to claim 29 where the step of revising the projected interval business demand in the selected future time intervals according to the percentage differential comprises the step of:

decreasing the projected interval business demand for the future time intervals by the percent differential between the projected interval business demand and the past actual business demand data, and, increasing the projected interval business demand by a growth factor, where the percent differential exceeds a negative threshold.

34. The method according to claim 19 where actual business demand data is stored in the actual business demand file in quarter hour intervals.

35. The method according to claim 19 where past actual business demand data is stored in the past business demand curve file in quarter hour intervals.