System and method for determining the impact of weather and other factors on managerial planning applications

• US 5,491,629 A
• Filed: 03/04/1994
• Issued: 02/13/1996
• Est. Priority Date: 03/04/1994
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Planalytics, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Strategic Weather Services
• Inventors: Fox, Frederick D., Rhoads, Mike A., Zaleski, Peter A., Pearson, Douglas R.
• Primary Examiner(s): Hayes, Gail O.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Kyle, Charles R.
• Application Number:
  US08/205,494
• Time in Patent Office: 711 Days
• Field of Search: 364/401, 364/403, 364/420
• US Class Current: 702/3
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling

Abstract

A computer-based Executive Information System (EIS) system for determining the impact of weather and other external and internal factors on the retail industry. Utilizing a multiple regression correlation technique in a predictive model, a correlation of weather variables with store information for specific locations and times is performed to quantify a weather impact model in terms of unit or dollar sales volume change, or any other commercially useful benchmark. The EIS system determines these relationships with location and time specificity. Using the relationship between historical weather and historical sales, the EIS system "deweatherizes" the historical weather to create a normalized historical sales relative to weather based upon normal weather (the 30 year average). This deweatherized data may be used in conjunction with a user-provided managerial plan to produce a revised managerial plan. Alternatively, the revised plan can be "weatherized" by the EIS system by applying forecasted weather to the weather impact model to generate a weather-modified managerial plan.

Claims

1. A computer-based system for generating a weather-modified managerial plan that represents the future impact of weather and other factors on retail sales, comprising:

first means for providing store information;

second means for providing weather data, said weather data including,

historical weather data,

normal weather data, and

forecasted weather data;

third means for providing information external to retailer store environment;

database initializer means for performing one or more transformations of said store information, said weather data, and said external information to produce databases;

correlation processor means for generating a weather impact model, said weather impact model expressing a correlation between said store information and said external information contained within said databases with said historical weather data, and for substituting said normal weather data for said historical weather data in said weather impact model to generate deweatherized data; and

forecasting processor means for substituting said forecasted weather data for said normal weather data in said weather impact model to produce a weather-modified managerial plan.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein said deweatherized data is made available to a retailer to modify one or more portions of said managerial plan, resulting in a revised managerial plan.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein said substitution of said forecasted weather data in said weather impact model for said normal weather data is performed in conjunction with said revised managerial plan.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein said normal weather data comprises a 30 year average of a particular weather parameter for a specific location and time.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein said store information comprising point of sale data generated at one or more store locations and other store data, said other store data comprising any user specified recordable event taking place in support of consumer sales.

6. The system of claim 5, wherein said other store data comprises inventory transfer from distribution center to store, promotion data, store traffic, and labor data.

7. The system of claim 5, wherein said point of sale data is generated by electronic scanners, registers, and other electronic scanning and data gathering devices.

8. The system of claim 5, wherein said point of sale data includes product data, POS receipt data, promotional data, markdown data.

9. The system of claim 1, wherein the system is resident within a computer-based MIS architecture.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein said MIS architecture includes a data storage and retrieval facility configured to store said external information and said internal information.

11. The system of claim 1, wherein said external information comprises economic, demographic, competitive, or any other retailer-specified information valuable to assessing business performance.

12. The system of claim 1, wherein said weather data is measured in any user defined time increment.

13. The system of claim 12, wherein said time increment comprises daily time increments.

14. The system of claim 12, wherein said time increment comprises weekly time increments.

15. The system of claim 12, wherein said time increment comprises monthly time increments.

16. The system of claim 1, wherein said database initializer maps store locations to selected areas, thereby utilizing only necessary portions of said weather data associated with said selected areas.

17. The system of claim 1, wherein said database initializer creates retailer hierarchial structure tables, said retailer hierarchial structural tables indicating retailer-specified parent-child relationships.

18. The system of claim 1, wherein said weather data comprises any meteorological factor.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein said meteorological factors include temperature, precipitation, humidity.

20. The system of claim 1, wherein said managerial plan comprises buying product, distributing product to specific locations, advertising, promotions, financial budgeting, historical analysis, labor scheduling, and store traffic analysis.

21. The system of claim 1, wherein said forecasted weather data is in user-determined time increments for user-determined locations.

22. The system of claim 1, wherein said substitution of said forecasted weather data in said weather impact model for said normal weather data is performed in conjunction with said managerial plan.

23. The system of claim 1, wherein said substitution of said forecasted weather data in said weather impact model for said normal weather data is performed in conjunction with said deweatherization data.

24. The system of claim 1, further comprising a data manipulator means, coupled between said first means and said database initializer means, for aggregating said store transaction data.

25. The system of claim 1, wherein said first means comprises:

data gathering means for recording said store transaction data; and

a data storage and retrieval facility configured to receive said store transaction data from said data gathering means, and configured to store said store transaction data in a computer-readable format.

26. The system of claim 1, wherein said database initializer means transforms an aggregate of said store transaction data to a form that adds value to said correlation processor means.

27. The system of claim 26, wherein said database initializer means comprises:

comparing means for comparing a first set of values occurring during a first interval in a first period with a second set of values occurring in a second interval in a second period, and for computing the change in said first and second sets of values, wherein said first and second intervals are equal to a first length of time and said first and second periods are equal to a second length of time, and wherein said first length of time is less than or equal to said second length of time.

28. The system of claim 27, wherein said first length of time is a week.

29. The system of claim 28, wherein said second length of time is a year.

30. The system of claim 27, wherein said first length of time is a day.

31. The system of claim 30, wherein said second length of time is a year.

32. The system of claim 27, wherein said database initializer means further comprises:

lagging means for lagging said logged values of said historical weather data by a third interval, a fourth interval, and a fifth interval.

33. The system of claim 1, wherein said correlation processor means is configured to perform a least squares multiple regression on said databases to produce said weather impact model.

34. The system of claim 33, wherein said weather impact model expresses a correlation between said store transaction data contained in said databases and said historical weather data.

35. The system of claim 1, further comprising a graphical user interface for receiving said weather-modified managerial plan from said application processor means and for displaying said weather modified managerial plan in a user-specified manner.

36. A computer-based system for generating a weather-modified managerial plan that represents the future impact of weather and other factors on retail sales, comprising:

first means for providing store information;

second means for providing weather data, said weather data including,

historical weather data,

normal weather data, and

forecasted weather data;

third means for providing external information;

database initializer means for performing one or more transformations of said store information, said weather data, and said external information to produce databases, wherein said database initializer maps store locations to selected areas, said database initializer means utilizing only portions of said weather data associated with said selected areas;

correlation processor means for generating a weather impact model, said weather impact model expressing a correlation between said store information and said external information contained within said databases with said historical weather data, and for substituting said normal weather data for said historical weather data in said weather impact model to generate deweatherized data; and

forecasting processor means for substituting said forecasted weather data for said normal weather data in said weather impact model to produce a weather-modified managerial plan.