System and method for the advanced prediction of weather impact on managerial planning applications

• US 5,521,813 A
• Filed: 01/15/1993
• Issued: 05/28/1996
• Est. Priority Date: 01/15/1993
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Planalytics, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Strategic Weather Services
• Inventors: Fox, Richard J., Fox, Frederic D., Young, William R., Rhoads, Michael A., Pearson, Douglas R.
• Primary Examiner(s): Hayes, Gail O.
• Assistant Examiner(s): VERDUN, HAYWARD AUBRY
• Application Number:
  US08/002,847
• Time in Patent Office: 1,229 Days
• Field of Search: 364/420, 364/400, 364/401, 364/402, 364/403
• US Class Current: 705/7.29
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 706/923 Construction
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 706/925 Business

Abstract

A computer-based system and method which incorporates long-range weather forecasts in a predictive model which quantifies historical weather impact relationships between datasets, and uses the long-range weather forecasts to predict future weather impact on managerial plans. The predictive model can use multiple regression or a neural network. In a retail application, the computer-based system and method has a weather impact predictive model based on correlations of historical weather and point-of-sale store transactions data. The weather impact model is coupled with long-range weather forecasts to adjust managerial plans for buying, distribution, financial budgeting, promotional and advertising applications. A graphical user interface provides easy assimilation of analysis for specific managerial planning applications.

Claims

1. A computer-based system for generating a weather-modified managerial plan, comprising:

first means for providing store transaction data;

second means for providing historical weather data;

third means for providing forecasted weather data;

fourth means for providing a managerial plan including forecast data;

database initializer means for performing one or more transformations of said store transaction data and said historical weather data to produce variable databases, including,

comparing means for comparing a first set of values occurring during a first interval in a first period with a second set of values occurring in a second interval in a second period, and for computing the change in said first and second sets of values, and

lagging means for lagging said logged values of said historical weather data by a third interval, a fourth interval, and a fifth interval;

correlation processor means for generating a weather impact model in accordance with said variable databases, said weather impact model expressing a correlation between said store transaction data contained in said variable databases and said historical weather data;

forecasting processor means for producing predicted value changes of said store transaction data using said weather impact model and said forecasted weather data; and

applications processor means for providing a weather-modified managerial plan in accordance with said forecasted weather data, said managerial plan, said historical weather data, and said predicted value changes.

2. A computer-based system for generating a weather-modified managerial plan that represents future predictions of weather impact on retail sales, comprising:

first means for providing point of sale store transaction data;

second means for providing historical weather data;

a database initializer to create a variable database of aggregated store transaction data by performing one or more transformations on said aggregated store transaction data and said historical weather data;

a correlation processor, coupled to said database initializer, adapted to receive said variable databases containing said weather impacted data and to generate a weather impact model, said weather impact model expressing a correlation between said store transaction data contained in said variable database and said historical weather data;

third means for providing forecasted weather data;

a forecasting processor, coupled to said correlation processor, configured to produce an output of predicted value changes of said weather impacted data in accordance with said weather impact model and said forecasted weather data;

substitution means for substituting logged values of said historical weather data with substitute logged values of said forecasted weather data in said weather impact model, and

computation means for solving for said predicted value changes using said weather impact model and said substitute logged values of said forecasted weather data;

fourth means for providing a managerial plan including forecast data; and

an applications processor, adapted to provide a weather-modified managerial plan in accordance with said forecasted weather data, said managerial plan data, said historical weather data, and said predicted value changes, including,

forecast modifier means for modifying said forecast data of said managerial plan based on said predicted value changes, and

comparator means for comparing user-selected characteristics of said managerial plan and said weather-modified managerial plan to generate a relative comparison illustrating said comparison.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein said database initializer means comprises:

comparing means for comparing a first set of values of said store transaction data occurring during a first interval in a first year with a second set of values occurring in a second interval in a second year, and for computing the change in said first and second sets of values; and

lagging means for lagging said historical weather data by a third interval.

4. The system of claim 3, wherein said first, said second, and said third intervals are a week.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein said correlation processor means is configured to perform a least squares multiple regression on said variable database to produce said weather impact model.

6. The system of claim 5, further comprising a graphical user interface for receiving said weather-modified managerial plan from said application processor means and for displaying said weather modified managerial plan in a user-specified manner.

7. A computer-based system for generating a weather-modified managerial plan that represents future predictions of weather impact from three days or more in advance with regard to retail sales, comprising:

(a) first means for providing store transaction data;

(b) second means for providing historical weather data;

(c) database initializer means, responsive to said first means and to said second means, for performing one or more transformations of said store transaction data and said historical weather data to produce variable databases;

(d) correlation processor means, responsive to said database initializer means, for generating a weather impact model in accordance with said variable databases, wherein said weather impact model expresses a correlation between said store transaction data contained in said variable databases and said historical weather data;

(e) third means for providing forecasted weather data;

(f) forecasting processor means, responsive to said correlation processor means, for producing predicted value changes of said store transaction data using said weather impact model and said forecasted weather data;

(g) fourth means for providing a managerial plan including forecast data; and

(h) applications processor means, responsive to said forecasting processor means, said third means, and said fourth means, for providing a weather-modified managerial plan in accordance with said forecasted weather data, said managerial plan, said historical weather data, and said predicted value changes;

wherein said database initializer means transforms an aggregate of said store transaction data to a form usable by said correlation processor means;

wherein said forecast processor means comprises;

substitution means for substituting logged values of said historical weather data with substitute logged values of said forecasted weather data in said weather impact model; and

computation means for solving for said predicted value changes using said weather impact model and said substitute logged values of said forecasted weather data.

8. The system of claim 7, wherein said correlation processor means is a neural network correlation processor.

9. The system of claim 7, further comprising a data manipulator means, coupled between said first means and said database initializer means, for aggregating said store transaction data.

10. The system of claim 7, wherein said first means comprises:

data gathering means for recording said store transaction data; and

a data storage and retrieval facility configured to receive said store transaction data from said data gathering means, and configured to store said store transaction data in a computer-readable format.

11. The system of claim 7, wherein said database initializer means comprises:

comparing means for comparing a first set of values of said store transaction data occurring during a first interval in a first period with a second set of values of said store transaction data occurring in a second interval in a second period, and for computing the change in said first and second sets of values,

wherein said first and second intervals are equal to a first length of time and said first and second periods are equal to a second length of time, and wherein said first length of time is less than or equal to said second length of time.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein said database initializer means further comprises:

lagging means for lagging said logged values of said historical weather data by a third interval, a fourth interval, and a fifth interval.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein said second length of time is a week.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein said second length of time is a year.

15. The system of claim 11, wherein said first length of time is a day.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein said second length of time is a year.

17. The system of claim 12, wherein said correlation processor means is configured to perform a least squares multiple regression on said variable databases to produce said weather impact model.

18. The system of claim 17, wherein said applications processor means comprises:

forecast modifier means for modifying said forecast data of said managerial plan based on said predicted value changes.

19. The system of claim 18, wherein said applications processor means further comprises:

comparator means for comparing user-selected characteristics of said managerial plan and said weather-modified managerial plan to generate a relative comparison illustrating said comparison.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein said user-selected characteristics include a degree of influence of user-selected weather characteristics on user-selected store transaction data, said degree of weather influence obtained from said weather impact model.

21. The system of claim 19, wherein said user-selected characteristics include characteristics of said store transaction data.

22. The system of claim 19, wherein said user-selected characteristics include characteristics limited to a geographic location.

23. The system of claim 19, wherein said user-selected characteristics include characteristics limited to a selected one or more of said first and second intervals of said first and second periods.

24. The system of claim 19, further comprising a graphical user interface for receiving said weather-modified managerial plan from said application processor means and for displaying said weather modified managerial plan in a user-specified manner.