Method and apparatus for optimal portfolio replication

• US 5,799,287 A
• Filed: 05/30/1997
• Issued: 08/25/1998
• Est. Priority Date: 05/24/1994
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: Ron S. Dembo
• Inventors: Dembo, Ron S.
• Primary Examiner(s): McElheny, Jr., Donald E.
• Application Number:
  US08/866,303
• Time in Patent Office: 452 Days
• Field of Search: 705/36, 705/37, 705/35, 395/925
• US Class Current: 705/36.00R
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

A method and apparatus for determining an optimal replicating portfolio for a given target portfolio involves an initial step wherein a user defines a target portfolio to be replicated, a set of available market instruments from which the replicating portfolio may be created, a set of future scenarios, a horizon date, and a minimum profit to be attained. A representation of the trade-off between risk and expected profit for some arbitrary replicating portfolio is then determined and used to calculate a maximum risk-adjusted profit. The maximum risk-adjusted profit reflects that level of return that may be achieved with an optimum degree of risk; that is, it reflects that point in the risk/reward trade-off where a marginal cost of risk is equivalent to a marginal benefit attainable by assuming that risk. The method then uses the predefined set of available market instruments to identify a set of transactions that will create a replicating portfolio that will achieve the maximum risk-adjusted profit. The method and apparatus also derives the information required to compute a risk premium for pricing of portfolios in incomplete markets, and performs the computation.

Claims

1. A computer-based method for constructing an optimal replicating portfolio for a given target portfolio of market instruments, the method comprising the steps of:

(a) generating an electronic representation of the collection of market instruments;

(b) generating an electronic representation of a set of available market instruments from which the replicating portfolio may be constructed;

(c) defining a set of future scenarios, wherein each member of the set of future scenarios associates a future value with a market parameter;

(d) defining a horizon date and a minimum required profit to be obtained on the horizon date from a replicating portfolio for the given target portfolio;

(e) calculating a trade-off between risk and expected profit for an arbitrary replicating portfolio;

(f) calculating a maximum risk-adjusted profit using the set of future scenarios and the trade-off between risk and expected profit, wherein the maximum risk-adjusted profit corresponds to a marginal cost of risk that is equivalent to a marginal benefit to be obtained from assuming that risk;

(g) generating an electronic representation of a replicating portfolio for the given target portfolio that will achieve the maximum risk-adjusted profit, wherein the replicating portfolio comprises market instruments selected from the set of available market instruments; and

(h) identifying a set of transactions required to construct the replicating portfolio.

2. The method according to claim 1, further comprising the step of computing a risk premium caused by an inability to construct a replicating portfolio that is a perfect replication of the target portfolio.

3. The method according to claim 1, further comprising the step of computing a price for the replicating portfolio by discounting a future price of the replicating portfolio according to a current price of a known market instrument.

4. The method according to claim 3, wherein said step of computing a price for the replicating portfolio further comprises calculating a state price vector and applying the state price vector to the future price of the replicating portfolio.

5. The method according to claim 1, further comprising the step of executing the set of transactions to construct the replicating portfolio.

6. A computer-based apparatus for constructing an optimal replicating portfolio for a given target portfolio of market instruments, the apparatus comprising:

(a) an input module programmed to accept information including an electronic representation of the target portfolio, a set of future scenarios, an electronic representation of a set of available market instruments, and a minimum profit to be achieved;

(b) an optimization module programmed to calculate an optimal replicating portfolio associated with the target portfolio, the set of future scenarios, and the minimum profit to be achieved, wherein the optimal replicating portfolio comprises an electronic representation of a set of market instruments for which a marginal cost of risk is equivalent to a marginal profit to be obtained from assuming that risk;

(c) a portfolio replication module programmed to identify a set of transactions that will construct the optimal replicating portfolio from a subset of the set of available market instruments; and

(d) an output module programmed to provide a user of said apparatus with information relating to the optimal replicating portfolio.

7. The apparatus of claim 6, further comprising a price calculator programmed to compute a current price for a financial instrument consistent with a current price of a known market portfolio.

8. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein said price calculator computes a state price vector for discounting the future price of the financial instrument.

9. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein said optimization module is further programmed to calculate a trade-off between the minimum profit to be achieved and a degree of risk required to achieve that minimum profit.

10. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein said input module comprises a real-time data feed.

11. A computer-based apparatus for constructing an optimal replicating portfolio for a given target portfolio of market instruments, the apparatus comprising:

a memory;

an input device for receiving input, said input device including

means for generating an electronic representation of a target portfolio,

means for generating an electronic representation of a set of available market instruments from which the replicating portfolio may be constructed,

means for defining a set of future scenarios, wherein each member of the set associates a future value with a market parameter, and

means for defining a horizon date and a minimum required profit attainable from the replicating portfolio at the horizon date; and

a processor coupled to the input device and the memory, said processor including

means for determining a trade-off between risk and expected profit for an arbitrary replicating portfolio,

means for determining a maximum risk-adjusted profit using the set of future scenarios and the trade-off between risk and expected profit, wherein the maximum risk-adjusted profit corresponds to a marginal cost of risk that is equivalent to a marginal benefit to be obtained from assuming that risk,

means for generating an electronic representation of a replicating portfolio for the target portfolio that will achieve the maximum risk-adjusted profit, wherein the replicating portfolio comprises market instruments from the set of available market instruments, and

means for identifying a set of transactions required to construct the replicating portfolio.

12. A method for determining whether a given market instrument is fairly priced, the method comprising the steps of:

(a) generating an electronic representation of the given market instrument;

(b) generating an optimal replicating portfolio for the given market instrument, wherein the optimal replicating portfolio represents a maximum risk-adjusted profit under a predetermined set of future scenarios, the maximum risk-adjusted profit corresponding to a marginal cost of risk that is equivalent to a marginal benefit to be obtained by assuming that risk, the optimal replicating portfolio comprising an electronic representation of one or more predetermined market instruments;

(c) determining a value corresponding to the maximum risk-adjusted profit associated with the replicating portfolio; and

(d) indicating whether the given market instrument is fairly priced based on the value of the maximum risk-adjusted profit, wherein the given market instrument is deemed to be overpriced when the value is positive, fairly priced when the value is zero, and underpriced when the value is negative.