Power trading and forecasting tool

• US 5,974,403 A
• Filed: 07/21/1997
• Issued: 10/26/1999
• Est. Priority Date: 07/21/1997
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Wu, Liliam Shiao-Yen, Takriti, Samer
• Primary Examiner(s): Cosimano, Edward R.
• Assistant Examiner(s): EDGE, WILLIAM B
• Application Number:
  US08/897,808
• Time in Patent Office: 827 Days
• Field of Search: 705/10, 705/412, 705/400, 705/7, 702/179, 702/181, 702/180
• US Class Current: 705/412
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/008 involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 30/00 Adapting or protecting infrastructure or their operation
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/10 Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid

Abstract

A computer implemented tool forecasts the spot price of electric power in a deregulated market and the amounts of power that may be traded in this market. Using generating capacities of multiple utilities, price functions, weather forecasts, and transmission variables, the computer implemented tool makes these forecasts at different delivery points, providing the decision maker with probabilistic distributions for spot prices and trading.

Claims

1. A computer power trading and forecasting process for forecasting spot-market prices of electric power and trading transactions at different delivery points comprising the steps of:

inputting maximum generating capacities of each utility competing within the market, price functions at which a utility is willing to sell its power at a given time period, a weather forecast, and a transmission cost and transmission capacity in different power lines of the electrical system;

using probabilistic distributions of electric load and the price function of each utility and transmission cost and transmission capacity between different utilities to build probabilistic distributions for the spot-market prices and for electric trades in the system; and

outputting probabilistic distributions for spot prices and trades at a plurality of time periods of a planning horizon and for a plurality of delivery points to enable a power broker to effectively manage risk in buying and selling electric power with different suppliers and consumers.

2. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 1 wherein the maximum generating capacity of each utility changes under different scenarios.

3. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 1 further comprising the step of using the input weather forecast to create a probabilistic distribution of load forecasts for each utility of interest.

4. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 3 wherein the input price functions are derived implicitly from production plus profit margin.

5. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 4 wherein a price function of a utility is approximated by a quadratic function which is convex, positive and increasing.

6. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 3 wherein the input price functions are given explicitly as a cost function of the generating units.

7. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 3 wherein probabilistic distribution of the transmission costs and capacities of power lines are created from historical data.

8. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 3 wherein the probabilistic distribution for the spot-market prices and for electric trades in the system are created by sampling from electric-load, price functions and cost distributions to create a sequence of deterministic models.

9. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 8 further comprising the steps of:

minimizing a cost of operating an electric utility system under each sampled set of price functions, transmission costs and electric loads; and

storing a resulting output.

10. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 9 wherein sampling from electric-load, transmission costs and cost distributions is performed using a random number generator.

11. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 3 wherein the probabilistic distributions for spot prices and trades is performed by a bucketing process.

12. The computer power trading and forecasting process recited in claim 11 wherein the bucketing process comprises the steps of:

creating ranges of spot prices;

counting a number of spot prices that fall within each range and normalizing the counted numbers to obtain a probability for each range; and

generating a histogram of the probabilities of each range as an approximation of a probability distribution of the marginal cost at each delivery point at a given time.