Method for production planning in an uncertain demand environment

• US 6,006,192 A
• Filed: 03/12/1997
• Issued: 12/21/1999
• Est. Priority Date: 03/12/1997
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Srinivasan, Ramesh, Cheng, Feng, Ervolina, Thomas Robert, Connors, Daniel Patrick
• Primary Examiner(s): MacDonald, Allen R.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Kanof, Pedro R.
• Application Number:
  US08/815,825
• Time in Patent Office: 1,014 Days
• Field of Search: 395/208, 395/701, 395/703, 395/898, 364/468, 364/401, 364/403, 364/468.13, 364/468.19, 364/468.01, 364/149, 705/10, 705/28, 705/8, 705/38, 705/35, 705/7, 705/20, 705/29, 702/2, 342/64
• US Class Current: 705/7.31
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06393 Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0875 Itemisation or classification of parts, supplies or services, e.g. bill of materials
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/201 Price look-up processing, e.g. updating
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/207 Tax processing
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes

Abstract

A decision-making method suitable for production planning in an uncertain demand environment. To this end, the method comprises combining an implosion technology with a scenario-based analysis, thus manifesting, a sui generis capability which preserves the advantages and benefits of each of its subsumed aspects.

Claims

1. A method for producing planning in an uncertain demand environment, said method comprising the steps of:

a. providing plurality of demand scenarios having discrete time periods, and a probability for each of said demand scenarios;

b. representing uncertainty in a demand environment by employing a scenario-based analysis including the steps of performing multiple optimization runs against different demand scenarios; and

c. generating optimal deterministic solutions for each of said demand scenarios using an implosion technology;

d. computing expected payoffs for said demand scenarios and choosing an optimal production plan having a best of said expected payoffs; and

e. modifying manufacturing of said products according to said chosen optimal production plan.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said generating step comprises the following steps:

1. generating production plans for each of said demand scenarios having a fixed production decision

4. The method of claim 2, wherein said optimal production plan is created based initially on a particular demand scenario.

6. The method of claim 4, wherein said optimal production is obtained using an implementable production policy for an entire demand scenario tree.

3. generating production plans for each of said demand scenarios having a varied production decision using said production plan generated in step (b) for a first discrete time period and solving for demand scenarios for remaining discrete time periods as indicated in said production decision using an implosion technology.

5. The method of claim 3, wherein said optimal production is adjusted according to unfolding sequel demand scenarios.

7. The method of claim 5, wherein an expected performance measure is computed for each said implementable production policy based on a particular initial demand scenario.

9. The device of claim 7, wherein said generating step comprises the following steps:

12. The device of claim 9, wherein said optimal production is adjusted according to unfolding sequel demand scenarios.

8. A computer program device readable by a machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by a machine to perform method steps for production planning in an uncertain demand environment, said method comprising the steps of:

a. providing plurality of demand scenarios having discrete time periods, and a probability for each of said demand scenarios;

b. representing uncertainty in a demand environment by employing a scenario-based analysis including the steps of performing multiple optimization runs against different demand scenarios; and

c. generating optimal deterministic solutions for each of said demand scenarios using an implosion technology;

d. computing expected payoffs for said demand scenarios and choosing an optimal production plan having a best of said expected payoffs; and

e. modifying manufacturing of said products according to said chosen optimal production plan.

11. The device of claim 8, wherein said optimal production plan is created based initially on a particular demand scenario.

14. The device of claim 11, wherein an expected performance measure is computed for each said implementable production policy based on a particular initial demand scenario.

10. generating production plans for each of said demand scenarios having a fixed production decisiongenerating production plans for each of said demand scenarios having a varied production decision using said production plan generated in step (b) for a first discrete time period and solving for demand scenarios for remaining discrete time periods as indicated in said production decision using an implosion technology.

13. The device of claim 10, wherein said optimal production is obtained using an implementable production policy for an entire demand scenario tree.