System for determining the probability that items of evidence prove a conclusion

• US 6,125,340 A
• Filed: 03/11/1998
• Issued: 09/26/2000
• Est. Priority Date: 03/11/1998
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Convex Systems Incorporated
• Original Assignee: Convex Systems Incorporated
• Inventors: Miles, Martin John
• Primary Examiner(s): Hoff, Marc S.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Bui, Bryan
• Application Number:
  US09/038,085
• Time in Patent Office: 930 Days
• Field of Search: 702/179, 702/180, 702/181, 705/10, 705/27, 705/12
• US Class Current: 702/181
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks

Abstract

A system for determining whether items of evidence prove a conclusion based upon user input data. The software of the present invention interrogates a user to receive characteristic information about the user and for information about the items of evidence in a trial. In accordance with the present invention, a user inputs a probability for each item of evidence that the item of evidence is true and a probability that the item of evidence proves a conclusion. The software of the present invention then calculates the probability that each item of evidence individually proves the conclusion and the probability that all of the items of evidence combined prove the conclusion. The software of the present invention than performs statistical analysis of the data receive from several users to determine trends about the evidence and to model a jury or to select a jury from a pool of potential jurors.

Claims

1. System for determining whether items of evidence prove a conclusion based upon user input comprising:

means for storing a list of items of evidence;

means for displaying each said item in evidence from said list to said user;

means for receiving input from said user comprising a truth probability for each said item of evidence wherein said truth probability is the probability that said item is true, and a proof probability for each said item of evidence wherein said proof probability that an item proves said conclusion;

means for determining a calculated probability that said comparison for determining if said conclusion is true; and

means responsive to a determination whether said conclusion if true for displaying said determination to said user.

2. The system of claim 1, further comprising:

means for determining a conclusion probability for each item of evidence that said each item individually proves said conclusion from said true probability and proof probability of said each item of evidence; and

means for storing said conclusion probability that each said item of evidence individually proves said conclusion.

3. The system of claim 2 further comprising:

means for generating an ordered list of items of evidence based upon said conclusion probability for each of said items of evidence; and

means for storing said ordered list in said memory.

4. The system of claim 3 further comprising:

means for displaying said ordered list of items to said user.

5. The system of claim 2 further comprising:

means for determining a subset of said items of evidence that minimally exceeds said burden of persuasion;

means for storing said subset.

6. The system of claim 1 wherein said conclusion is a fundamental issue of a trial.

7. The system of claim 6 further comprising:

means for determining whether said user would vote in favor of a defendant in said trial from said calculated probability that said fundamental issue is proved;

means for determining whether said user would vote in favor of said plaintiff in said trial from said calculated probability that said fundamental issue is proved; and

means for storing said vote of said user.

8. The system of claim 6 further comprising:

means for calculating damages to be awarded to a plaintiff in said trial based upon said probability that said fundamental issue has been proved.

9. The system of claim 1 wherein said input by said user comprises said burden of persuasion in terms of probability.

10. The system of claim 1 wherein a plurality of users use said system, said system further comprises:

means for displaying a request for characteristic information to said user;

means for receiving an input of said characteristic information by said user; and

means for storing said characteristic information received from each of said plurality of users.

11. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for determining whether to accept a result from said plurality of users.

12. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for determining a number of additional users needed to make a result acceptable.

13. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for generating a histogram of said probability that said conclusion has been proved from said calculated probabilities for each of said pluralities of users.

14. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for determining a mean said calculated probabilities of said plurality of users.

15. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for generating a histogram of said probability that said conclusion is disproved from said calculated probabilities of said users that said conclusion is disproved.

16. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for generating a histogram of a burden of persuasion in probability as received as input from said plurality of users.

17. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for calculating a mean value for each said item of evidence for said truth probabilities as input by said plurality of users.

18. The system of claim 17 further comprising:

means for determining a lower confidence limit for each item of evidence that said item of evidence is true from said truth probability input by users.

19. The system of claim 17 further comprising:

means for determining an upper confidence limit for each item of evidence that said item of evidence is true from said truth probability input by users.

20. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for calculating a mean value for each said item of evidence that said item of evidence proves said conclusion from said proof probability input by users.

21. The system of claim 20 further comprising:

means for determining a lower confidence limit for each item of evidence that said item of evidence proves said conclusion from said proof probability input by users.

22. The system of claim 20 further comprising:

means for determining an upper confidence limit for each said item of evidence that said item of evidence proves said conclusion from said proof probability input by users.

23. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for calculating a mean value for each said item of evidence that said item of evidence disproves said conclusion from said proof probability input by users.

24. The system of claim 23 further comprising:

means for determining a lower confidence limit for each item of evidence that said item of evidence disproves said conclusion from said proof probability input by users.

25. The system of claim 23 further comprising:

means for determining an upper confidence limit for each said item of evidence that said item of evidence disproves said conclusion from said proof probability input by users.

26. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for calculating a mean value for said calculated probabilities from said plurality of users that said items of evidence prove said conclusion.

27. The system of claim 26 further comprising:

means for determining a lower confidence limit for said calculated probabilities.

28. The system of claim 26 further comprising:

means for determining an upper confidence limit for said calculated probabilities.

29. The system of claim 10 further comprising:

means for calculating a mean value said burden of persuasion as input by said plurality of users.

30. The system of claim 29 further comprising:

means for determining a lower confidence limit for said burden of persuasion input by said plurality of users.

31. The system of claim 29 further comprising:

means for determining an upper confidence limit for said burden of persuasion input by said plurality of users.

32. The system of claim 10 wherein said conclusion is a fundamental issue of a trial, said system further comprising:

means for predicting a verdict of said trial based upon said inputs of said plurality of users.

33. The system of claim 10 wherein said conclusion is a fundamental issue of a trial, said system further comprising:

means for selecting potential jurors based upon said input information of said plurality of users.

34. A method for determining whether items of evidence prove a conclusion from input by a user comprising the steps of:

storing a list of items of evidence;

displaying each said item of evidence from said list to said user;

receiving input from said user comprising a truth probability for each of said items of evidence wherein said truth probability that an item is proved to be true, and a proof probability for each of said items of evidence proves said conclusion;

calculating a calculated probability that said conclusion is proved from truth probabilities and proof probabilities of said items of evidence;

comparing said calculated probability to a burden of persuasion in terms of probability;

determining whether said conclusion is proved responsive to said comparison; and

said means for displaying a result of a determination of whether said conclusion is proved to said user.

35. The method of claim 34 further comprising the steps of:

determining a conclusion probability for each of said items of evidence that said each said items of evidence individually proves said conclusion; and

storing said conclusion probability for each of said items of evidence individually proves said fundamental issue.

36. The method of claim 35 further comprising the steps of:

generating an ordered list of items of evidence based upon said conclusion probability of each of said items of evidence; and

storing said ordered list in said memory.

37. The method of claim 36 further comprising the step of:

displaying said ordered list of items to said user.

38. The method of claim 35 further comprising the steps of:

determining a subset of said items of evidence that minimally exceeds said burden of persuasion; and

storing said subset.

39. The method of claim 34 wherein said conclusion is a fundamental issue of a trial.

40. The method of claim 39 further comprising the steps of:

determining whether said user would vote in favor of a defendant in said trial from said calculated probability that said fundamental issue is proved;

determining whether said user would vote in favor of said plaintiff in said trial from said calculated probability that said fundamental issue is proved; and

storing said vote of said user.

41. The method of claim 39 further comprising the steps of:

calculating damages to be awarded to a plaintiff in said trial based upon said probability that said fundamental issue has been proved.

42. The method of claim 34 wherein said input by said user comprises said burden of persuasion in terms of probability.

43. The method of claim 34 wherein a plurality of users input data about said trial, said method further comprises the steps of:

displaying a request for characteristic information to said user;

receiving an input of said characteristic information by said user; and

storing said characteristic information received from each of said plurality of users.

44. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

determining whether a result from a plurality of users is acceptable.

45. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

determining an amount of additional users needed to make a result acceptable.

46. The method of claim 43 further comprising the steps of:

generating a histogram of said probability that said conclusion has been proved from said probabilities determined for each of said pluralities of users.

47. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

determining a mean for said plurality of users of said calculated probability.

48. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

generating a histogram of said probability that said conclusion is proved from said calculated probabilities of said plurality of users.

49. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

generating a histogram of said probability that said conclusion is disproved from said calculated probabilities for said plurality users.

50. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

generating a histogram of a burden of persuasion in probability as received as input from said plurality of users.

51. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

calculating a mean value for each of said items of evidence that the item of evidence is true from truth probabilities input by said plurality of users.

52. The method of claim 51 further comprising the step of:

determining a lower confidence limit for each of said items of evidence that the item of evidence is true from truth probabilities input by said plurality of users.

53. The method of claim 51 further comprising the step of:

determining an upper confidence limit for each of said items of evidence that an item of evidence is true from truth probabilities input by said plurality of users.

54. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

calculating a mean value for each of said items of evidence that said item of evidence proves said conclusion from said proof probabilities input by said plurality of users.

55. The method of claim 54 further comprising the step of:

determining a lower confidence limit for each of said items of evidence that an item of evidence proves said conclusion from said proof probabilities input by said plurality of users.

56. The method of claim 54 further comprising the step of:

determining an upper confidence limit for each of said items of evidence that said item of evidence proves said conclusion from said proof probabilities input by said plurality of users.

57. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

calculating a mean value for each of said items of evidence that an item of evidence disproves said conclusion from said proof probabilities input by said plurality of users.

58. The method of claim 57 further comprising the step of:

determining a lower confidence limit for each of said items of evidence that said item of evidence disproves said conclusion from said proof probabilities input by said plurality of users.

59. The method of claim 57 further comprising the step of:

determining an upper confidence limit for each of said items of evidence that an item of evidence disproves said conclusion from said proof probabilities input by said plurality of users.

60. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

calculating a mean value for said calculated probabilities from said plurality of users that said items of evidence prove said conclusion.

61. The method of claim 60 further comprising the step of:

determining a lower confidence limit for said calculated probabilities.

62. The method of claim 60 further comprising the step of:

determining an upper confidence limit for said calculated probabilities.

63. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

calculating a mean value said burden of persuasion as input by said plurality of users.

64. The method of claim 63 further comprising the step of:

determining a lower confidence limit for said burden of persuasion input by said plurality of users.

65. The method of claim 63 further comprising the step of:

determining an upper confidence limit for said burden of persuasion input by said plurality of users.

66. The method of claim 43 wherein said conclusion is a fundamental issue of a trial and said method further comprises the step of:

predicting a verdict of said trial based upon said inputs of said plurality of users.

67. The method of claim 43 further comprising the step of:

selecting potential jurors based upon said input information of said plurality of users.