Method for production planning in an uncertain demand environment

• US 6,138,103 A
• Filed: 07/27/1999
• Issued: 10/24/2000
• Est. Priority Date: 03/12/1997
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Srinivasan, Ramesh, Cheng, Feng, Ervolina, Thomas Robert, Connors, Daniel Patrick
• Primary Examiner(s): MacDonald, Allen R.
• Assistant Examiner(s): Kanof, Pedro R.
• Application Number:
  US09/362,010
• Time in Patent Office: 455 Days
• Field of Search: 705/7, 705/8, 705/9, 705/10, 705/29, 705/28, 705/20, 705/35, 705/14, 700/106, 700/103
• US Class Current: 705/7.37
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06393 Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0875 Itemisation or classification of parts, supplies or services, e.g. bill of materials
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/201 Price look-up processing, e.g. updating
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/207 Tax processing
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes

Abstract

A decision-making method suitable for production planning in an uncertain demand environment. To this end, the method comprises combining an implosion technology with a scenario-based analysis, thus manifesting, a sui generis capability which preserves the advantages and benefits of each of its subsumed aspects.

Claims

1. A program storage readable by a machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by a machine to perform method steps for production planning in an uncertain demand environment, said method steps comprising:

a) inputting a plurality of demand scenarios over a timing horizon and a probability associated with each of said demand scenario which represent uncertainties in a demand environment;

b) employing a scenario-based analysis including the steps of performing multiple optimization runs against different demand scenarios;

c) combining an implosion technology with the scenario-based analysis for generating for any one individual demand scenario, a deterministic solution which is optimal for the particular demand scenario; and

,

d) generating an output comprising a payoff table that includes said solution for each demand scenario, each said solution being optimized in accordance with a selected performance measure.

2. A device according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises creating a production plan based initially on a particular demand scenario.

3. A device according to claim 2, wherein the method comprises a step of adjusting the production plan according to unfolding sequel demand scenarios.

4. A device according to claim 2, wherein the method comprises obtaining from the production plan an implementable production policy for an entire demand scenario tree.

5. A device according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises computing an expected performance measure for each implementable production policy based on a particular initial demand scenario.

6. The program storage readable by a machine as claimed in claim 1, wherein said selected performance measure includes revenue.

7. The program storage readable by a machine as claimed in claim 1, wherein said selected performance measure includes profit, said payoff table providing solutions that take into account costs including one of backlog penalties and obsolescence.

8. The program storage readable by a machine as claimed in claim 1, wherein said selected performance measure includes serviceability.