Method and apparatus for predicting lightning threats based on radar and temperature data

• US 6,405,134 B1
• Filed: 08/30/2000
• Issued: 06/11/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 08/30/2000
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: User-Centric IP, L.P. (Locator IP LP)
• Original Assignee: WeatherData, Inc. (Accuweather Incorporated)
• Inventors: Vincent, Bill, Smith, Michael
• Primary Examiner(s): McElheny, Jr., Donald E.
• Application Number:
  US09/650,732
• Time in Patent Office: 650 Days
• Field of Search: 702/4, 342/26, 706/931
• US Class Current: 702/4
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/86 Combinations of radar systems with non-radar systems, e.g. sonar, direction finder
• CPC Class Codes: G01S 13/951 ground based
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 90/10 Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

Abstract

The invention provides a system and method for predicting areas where lightning strikes are likely to occur by evaluating radar and temperature data. Radar volume data is analyzed to locate cloud tops that extend above a height corresponding to a temperature line of about −10° C. Areas where cloud tops extend above the height of the −10° C. line and that have a radar composite reflectivity greater than 30 dBZ are designated as probable lightning threat areas. Radar movement is tracked across at least two time periods, and a correlation algorithm predicts the future location of lightning threat areas at predetermined time periods (e.g., 10 minutes, 20 minutes, and 30 minutes) based on predicted radar values. A computer display shows the predicted location of the lightning threat areas for the future time periods. In one variation, selected structures or areas (e.g., power lines, factories, or the like) are superimposed on a computer display with predicted lightning threat areas to illustrate where lightning damage is likely to occur.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method of predicting future lightning activity, comprising the steps of:

(1) receiving cloud height data indicating heights of cloud formations over a geographic region;

(2) comparing the data received in step (1) with a measured height value corresponding to a height at which a predetermined temperature line occurs;

(3) identifying those portions of the geographic region having cloud heights that extend above the measured height value and that exhibit a composite radar reflectivity value greater than a predetermined reflectivity value; and

(4) displaying the portions identified in step (3) on a computer display as lightning threat areas.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein step (3) comprises the step of using a measured height value corresponding to a temperature line of approximately −

10°

C.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 2, wherein step (3) comprises the step of using a composite reflectivity value of approximately 30 dBZ.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising the step of displaying structures on the computer display in relation to the lightning threat areas.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising the steps of:

(5) predicting radar data for a future time period; and

(6) using the predicted radar data to predict future cloud heights and future composite radar reflectivity values, and using the future cloud heights and future composite radar reflectivity values in steps (2) and (3) to predict future lightning threat areas.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the portions in step (3) comprise areas of approximately 4 square kilometers in size.

7. The method of claim 4, further comprising the step of displaying structures that represent a utility company'"'"'s resources.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of transmitting a threat warning to a utility indicating that certain utility resources are subject to a lightning threat.

9. A computer-implemented method of displaying predictive lightning data, comprising the steps of:

(1) displaying on a computer screen predicted lightning threat areas, each predicted lightning threat area corresponding to a predetermined geographic area in relation to a geographic map; and

(2) superimposing on the computer screen structures in relation to the geographic map, such that locations of the predicted lightning threat areas can be visually compared to locations of the structures.

10. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, wherein step (2) comprises the step of displaying power line grids as the structures on the computer screen.

11. The computer-implemented method of claim 9, further comprising the step of predicting the lightning threat areas on the basis of radar reflectivity and temperature data.

12. The computer-implemented method of claim 11, wherein the predicting step comprises the steps of:

(a) identifying cloud tops that exceed a height at which a predetermined temperature exists;

(b) identifying areas having a composite radar reflectivity that exceeds a predetermined threshold; and

(3) designating areas that meet conditions identified in both steps (a) and (b) as lightning threat areas.

13. The computer-implemented method of claim 12, wherein step (a) comprises the step of using a height corresponding to a temperature of about −

10°

C., and wherein step (b) comprises the step of using a predetermined composite radar reflectivity threshold of about 30 dBZ.

14. A system for predicting lightning threat data, comprising:

a computer that receives radar and temperature vs. height data; and

a computer program that executes on the computer, the computer program comprising a lightning threat algorithm that compares the received radar and temperature vs. height data with predetermined thresholds to identify geographic areas having cloud tops that exceed a height corresponding to a predetermined temperature threshold and having a radar reflectivity value that exceeds a predetermined reflectivity threshold, and generates information that identifies geographic areas that meet both the predetermined temperature threshold and the predetermined reflectivity threshold as lightning threat areas.

15. The system of claim 14, wherein the computer program further comprises a prediction algorithm that predicts radar data for a future time period, and wherein the lightning threat algorithm further operates on the predicted radar data to generate information that identifies future lightning threat areas.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein the prediction algorithm applies an image filter and a correlation tracker to the received radar data and generates motion vectors, and uses an advection process to apply the motion vectors to the received radar data to predict the radar data for the future time period.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein the prediction algorithm predicts future cloud top height tops and future composite reflectivity values.

18. The system of claim 14, wherein each geographic area comprises an area of approximately 4 square kilometers.

19. The system of claim 14, wherein the predetermined temperature threshold is approximately −

10 degrees Celsius, and wherein the predetermined reflectivity threshold comprises a compositive reflectivity value of approximately 30 dBZ.

20. A computer-readable medium comprising computer instructions that, when executed in a computer, perform the steps of:

(1) receiving cloud height data indicating a height of cloud formations over a geographic region and radar reflectivity values indicating cloud density over the geographic region;

(2) comparing the cloud height data received in step (1) with a measured height value indicating a height at which a predetermined temperature line occurs; and

(3) identifying those portions of the geographic region having cloud heights that extend above the measured height value and that exhibit a radar reflectivity value of greater than a predetermined reflectivity value as lightning threat areas.

21. The computer-readable medium of claim 20, wherein the computer instructions further comprise instructions that display the lightning threat areas on a map.

22. The computer-readable medium of claim 20, wherein the computer instructions that perform step (2) compare the radar data with a height corresponding to a temperature line of approximately −

10°

C.

23. The computer-readable medium of claim 20, wherein the computer instructions that perform step (3) identify those geographic areas having a composite radar reflectivity value of greater than about 30 dBZ.

24. The computer-readable medium of claim 21, wherein the computer instructions further display structures on the computer display such that the lightning threat areas can be viewed in conjunction with the structures.

25. The computer-readable medium of claim 20, wherein the computer instructions identify lightning threat areas having a size of approximately 4 square kilometers.