Prediction input

• US 6,473,084 B1
• Filed: 09/08/1999
• Issued: 10/29/2002
• Est. Priority Date: 09/08/1999
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: C4cast.com Incorporated
• Original Assignee: C4cast.com Incorporated
• Inventors: Jennings, William P., Phillips, G. Michael, Findlay, M. Chapman III, Klein, Stephen A., Rice, Mark E.
• Primary Examiner(s): Razavi, Michael
• Assistant Examiner(s): CUNNINGHAM, GREGORY F
• Application Number:
  US09/392,361
• Time in Patent Office: 1,147 Days
• Field of Search: 345/115, 345/440, 345/440.1, 345/440.2, 737/91, D21/300, D21/369, D21/902, 700/92, 700/324, 700/31, 700/44, 700/45, 700/91, 703/22, 706/21, 704/216-218, 704/242, 704/217, 273/236, 273/224, 364/412, 377/4, 463/25, 463/26, 463/27, 463/28, 463/30, 463/31, 463/42, 705/14
• US Class Current: 345/440
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange

Abstract

Initially, a graph is electronically displayed, the graph including a historical portion that includes historical values of the variable over time and also including a future portion. Then, a participant is permitted to designate a point on the future portion of the graph (e.g., by using an input device such as a mouse, a touch-sensitive display screen or the like) and the designated point is converted into a predicted value for the variable at a realization time.

Claims

1. An apparatus for facilitating the entry of prediction data for a variable, comprising:

display means for electronically displaying a graph, the graph including a historical portion that includes historical values of the variable over time and also including a future portion;

designation means for designating a point on the future portion of the graph; and

prediction entry means for converting the point designated by said designation means into a predicted value for the variable at a realization time,

wherein each of the predicted value and the realization time are based on a position of the point.

2. An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the graph also shows historical values for other variables.

3. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising means for entering an estimate regarding uncertainty of the predicted value.

4. An apparatus according to claim 3, wherein said means for entering an estimate regarding uncertainty of the predicted value permits selection of one of a discrete number of uncertainty indicators.

5. An apparatus according to claim 3, wherein said means for entering an estimate regarding uncertainty of the predicted value permits designation of uncertainty within a continuous range of degrees of uncertainty.

6. An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein said designation means comprises a computer mouse.

7. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising additional display means for graphically displaying the historical data and the predicted value for the variable with respect to a different independent variable than in the graph.

8. An apparatus according to claim 7, wherein said display means displays the historical data for the variable in a time series view.

9. An apparatus according to claim 8, wherein said display means displays the historical data for plural different variables in a time series view, and wherein said additional display means displays the historical data for said plural different variables in a rotation of the time series view.

10. An apparatus according to claim 7, wherein said additional display means also permits modification of the predicted value by alteration a location of a point corresponding to the predicted value.

11. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising downloading means for downloading the historical data for the variable from a server across an electronic network.

12. An apparatus according to claim 11, wherein said downloading means specifies a desired granularity for the historical data of the variable.

13. An apparatus according to claim 11, wherein said downloading means specifies a desired time interval for the historical data of the variable.

14. An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein said display means comprises means for indicating a division between the historical portion and the future portion of the graph.

15. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a numeric input means for alternatively entering the predicted value in numeric form.

16. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising means for numerically displaying the predicted value after the point has been designated and for permitting numerical alteration of the predicted value.

17. An apparatus according to claim 1, wherein plural points may be designated on the graph corresponding to predicted values for the variable at plural different realization times.

18. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising means for highlighting a current position on the graph tentatively designated by said designation means, and means for obtaining data linked to said current position.

19. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising means for matching the predicted value to different prediction models and identifying a closest prediction model.

20. An apparatus according to claim 19, further comprising means for providing information regarding data implicit in the predicted value, based on said closest prediction model.

21. An apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising means for providing an additional graph of a requested mathematical transformation of data.

22. An apparatus for facilitating the entry of prediction data for a variable, comprising:

display means for electronically displaying a graph, the graph including a historical portion that includes historical values of the variable over time and also including a future portion;

designation means for designating a point on the future portion of the graph;

prediction entry means for converting the point designated by said designation means into a predicted value for the variable at a realization time, wherein each of the predicted value and the realization time are based on a position of the point;

numeric entry means for numerically displaying the predicted value after the point has been designated and for permitting numerical alteration of the predicted value; and

additional display means for graphically displaying the historical data and the predicted value for the variable with respect to a different independent variable than in the graph,

wherein said additional display means also permits modification of the predicted value by altering a location of a point corresponding to the predicted value.

23. An apparatus according to claim 22, wherein the graph also shows historical values for other variables.

24. An apparatus according to claim 22, further comprising means for entering an estimate regarding uncertainty of the predicted value.

25. An apparatus according to claim 22, further comprising a numeric input means for alternatively entering the predicted value in numeric form.

26. A method for entering prediction data for a variable, comprising:

causing a graph to be electronically displayed, the graph including a historical portion that includes historical values of the variable over time and also including a future portion;

designating a point on the future portion of the graph, a position of the point corresponding to a predicted value for the variable at a realization time and to the realization time;

entering the predicted value; and

numerically altering the predicted value after designating the point but before entering the predicted value.

27. A method according to claim 26, further comprising a step of entering an estimate regarding uncertainty of the predicted value.

28. A computer-readable medium storing computer executable process steps, said process steps for facilitating the entry of prediction data for a variable, said process steps comprising steps to:

electronically display a graph, the graph including a historical portion that includes historical values of the variable over time and also including a future portion;

permit designation of a point on the future portion of the graph; and

convert the point designated by said designation means into a predicted value for the variable at a realization time,

wherein each of the predicted value and the realization time are based on a position of the point.

29. An apparatus for facilitating the entry of prediction data for a variable, comprising:

a processor for executing stored program instruction steps; and

a memory connected to the processor for storing the program instruction steps,

wherein the program instruction steps include steps to;

(a) electronically display a graph, the graph including a historical portion that includes historical values of the variable over time and also including a future portion;

(b) permit designation of a point on the future portion of the graph; and

(c) convert the point designated by said designation means into a predicted value for the variable at a realization time, and

wherein each of the predicted value and the realization time are based on a position of the point.