Paper web breakage prediction using principal components analysis and classification and regression trees
First Claim
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1. A system for predicting a web break in a paper machine located about a paper mill, comprising:
- a paper mill database containing a plurality of measurements obtained from the paper mill, each of the plurality of measurements relating to a predetermined paper machine variable;
a processor for processing each of the plurality of measurements into break sensitivity data; and
a break predictor responsive to the processor for predicting a web break sensitivity within the paper machine from the plurality of processed measurements.
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Abstract
A system and method for predicting web breaks in a paper machine. Principal components analysis (PCA) and classification and regression tree (CART) modeling are used to predict web break sensitivity from measurements taken from the paper mill. Also, the CART model is used to isolate the root cause of the predicted web break sensitivity.
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Citations
54 Claims
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1. A system for predicting a web break in a paper machine located about a paper mill, comprising:
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a paper mill database containing a plurality of measurements obtained from the paper mill, each of the plurality of measurements relating to a predetermined paper machine variable;
a processor for processing each of the plurality of measurements into break sensitivity data; and
a break predictor responsive to the processor for predicting a web break sensitivity within the paper machine from the plurality of processed measurements. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A system for predicting a web break in a paper machine located about a paper mill, comprising:
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a paper mill database containing a plurality of measurements obtained from the paper mill, each of the plurality of measurements relating to a predetermined paper machine variable;
a processor for processing each of the plurality of measurements into break sensitivity data; and
a break predictor responsive to the processor for predicting a web break sensitivity within the paper machine from the plurality of processed measurements, wherein the break predictor comprises an inductive reasoning tool. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23)
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24. A method for predicting a web break in a paper machine located about a paper mill, comprising:
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obtaining a plurality of measurements from the paper mill, each of the plurality of measurements relating to a predetermined paper machine variable;
processing each of the plurality of measurements into break sensitivity data; and
predicting a web break sensitivity within the paper machine from the plurality of processed measurements. - View Dependent Claims (25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44)
reducing the quantity of the historical web break data;
reducing the number of variables contained in the historical web break data;
transforming the values of the historical web break data;
extracting features that affect web break sensitivity from the historical web break data; and
generating the classification and regression tree model to predict a web break sensitivity from the extracted features.
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34. The method according to claim 33, wherein reducing the quantity of historical web break data includes selecting data associated with a web break having a predetermined cause.
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35. The method according to claim 34, wherein reducing the quantity of historical web break data includes selecting data within a predetermined time period of a web break.
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36. The method according to claim 34, further comprising segmenting the historical web break data.
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37. The method according to claim 36, wherein segmenting the data includes selecting data associated with a predetermined paper grade.
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38. The method according to claim 36, wherein segmenting the historical web break data includes dividing the data into break positive data and break negative data.
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39. The method according to claim 38, wherein dividing the data into break positive data includes segmenting the break positive data by time-series analysis.
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40. The method according to claim 33, wherein reducing the number of variables includes processing the data utilizing a technique selected from the group consisting of knowledge engineering, visualization, classification and regression trees and logistic regression.
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41. The method according to claim 33, wherein reducing the number of variables includes processing the data utilizing principal components analysis.
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42. The method according to claim 33, wherein transforming the values of the historical web break data includes smoothing or filtering the data.
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43. The method according to claim 24, further comprising the step of isolating the paper machine variables affecting the predicted web break sensitivity.
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44. The method according to claim 24, wherein the obtaining of the plurality of measurements comprises receiving measurements generated from various processes occurring within the paper mill.
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45. A method for predicting a web break in a paper machine located about a paper mill, comprising:
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obtaining a plurality of measurements from the paper mill, each of the plurality of measurements relating to a predetermined paper machine variable;
processing each of the plurality of measurements into break sensitivity data comprising time-based transformations of the plurality of measurements; and
predicting a web break sensitivity within the paper machine from the plurality of processed measurements. - View Dependent Claims (46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54)
reducing the quantity of the historical web break data;
reducing the number of variables contained in the historical web break data;
transforming the values of the historical web break data;
extracting features that affect web break sensitivity from the historical web break data; and
generating the classification and regression tree model to predict a web break sensitivity from the extracted features.
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54. The method according to claim 45, wherein the obtaining of the plurality of measurements comprises receiving measurements generated from various processes occurring within the paper mill.
Specification