Quantitative precipitation prediction method
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented method of predicting future precipitation for a target area, comprising the steps of:
- (1) storing cloud parameter values indicative of potential future precipitation for each of a plurality of cells;
(2) selecting a group of the plurality of cells corresponding to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area;
(3) for each of the plurality of cells determined in step (2) to correspond to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area, converting a corresponding cloud parameter value into a predicted precipitation rate;
(4) for each of the plurality of cells determined to correspond to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area, converting the predicted precipitation rate determined in step (3) into a predicted precipitation amount; and
(5) accumulating predicted precipitation amounts for each of the plurality of cells in step (4) into a total predicted precipitation amount for the target area.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A user-selectable cursor can be positioned over a portion of a cloud formation displayed on a computer display, where the portion corresponds to precipitation that is expected to move over a target point or area. Predicted precipitation amounts corresponding to the portion are calculated and displayed, allowing the user to see how much precipitation is expected to occur over the target point or area. In one variation, radar reflectivity data indicating relative storm intensities is displayed on the computer screen, and the cursor is used to select a region of interest including one or more cells that are expected to move over a target area. Reflectivity values for each cell that is expected to move over the target area are converted into predicted precipitation rates, and are multiplied by the time that each cell is expected to remain over the target area. Predicted precipitation amounts attributable to each cell that is expected to move across the target area are accumulated and output as a predicted precipitation amount for the target area. If the target area is a watershed comprising multiple cells, then predicted precipitation amounts for each cell in the watershed are averaged to produce a predicted precipitation amount for the watershed. The cursor can be drawn over different regions of interest to allow a user to quickly identify outcomes under different scenarios.
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Citations
37 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method of predicting future precipitation for a target area, comprising the steps of:
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(1) storing cloud parameter values indicative of potential future precipitation for each of a plurality of cells;
(2) selecting a group of the plurality of cells corresponding to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area;
(3) for each of the plurality of cells determined in step (2) to correspond to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area, converting a corresponding cloud parameter value into a predicted precipitation rate;
(4) for each of the plurality of cells determined to correspond to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area, converting the predicted precipitation rate determined in step (3) into a predicted precipitation amount; and
(5) accumulating predicted precipitation amounts for each of the plurality of cells in step (4) into a total predicted precipitation amount for the target area. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 37)
(a) prior to step (3), obtaining rain gauge measurements for each of a plurality of cells;
(b) prior to step (3), obtaining actual radar reflectivity measurements corresponding to the rain gauge measurements in step (a);
(c) estimating the relationship between the rain gauge measurements obtained in step (a) and the actual radar reflectivity measurements obtained in step (b); and
(d) using the estimated relationship obtained in step (c) to perform the conversion in step (3).
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23. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of adding the total predicted precipitation amount obtained in step (5) to an actual measured precipitation amount over the target area and generating a value that represents a combined actual and predicted precipitation amount over the target area.
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24. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of repeating steps (2) through (5) a plurality of times to generate a plurality of different total predicted precipitation amounts, and displaying the plurality of different total predicted precipitation amounts on a computer display as different scenarios corresponding to different possible paths of a storm.
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25. The method of claim 1, wherein step (2) comprises the step of drawing a cursor on a computer display and indicating in conjunction with the drawn cursor a time period over which a length of the cursor corresponds.
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26. The method of claim 1, wherein step (2) comprises the step of drawing a cursor on a computer display and indicating in conjunction with the drawn cursor a distance over which a length of the cursor corresponds.
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27. A computer-readable medium comprising computer-executable instructions that, when executed by a computer, perform the steps recited in claim 1.
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37. The method of claim 21, wherein the automated storm and precipitation movement prediction algorithm comprises a growth and decay algorithm.
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28. A computer-implemented method of predicting precipitation over a target area, comprising the steps of:
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(1) storing in a computer information indicating future potential precipitation for a cloud formation;
(2) selecting a portion of the cloud formation that is expected to move over the target area;
(3) converting potential precipitation corresponding to the portion selected in step (2) into a predicted precipitation rate;
(4) converting the predicted precipitation rate determined in step (3) into a predicted precipitation amount; and
(5) displaying the predicted precipitation amount on a computer display. - View Dependent Claims (29, 30, 31)
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32. A computer programmed with computer-executable instructions that, when executed by the computer, perform the steps of:
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(1) storing information indicating future potential precipitation for a cloud formation;
(2) generating a user-selectable cursor that allows a user to select a portion of the cloud formation that is expected to move over a target area;
(3) converting potential precipitation corresponding to the portion selected in step (2) into a predicted precipitation rate;
(4) converting the predicted precipitation rate determined in step (3) into a predicted precipitation amount; and
(5) displaying the predicted precipitation amount on a computer display. - View Dependent Claims (33, 34, 35)
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36. A computer-implemented method of predicting future precipitation for a target area, comprising the steps of:
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(1) storing radar reflectivity values indicative of potential future precipitation for each of a plurality of cells over which a cloud formation is moving;
(2) displaying on a computer display the radar reflectivity values stored in step (1);
(3) with a user-drawn cursor, selecting a region of interest on the computer display corresponding to cells having precipitation that is expected to move over the target area;
(4) for each of the plurality of cells determined in step (3) to correspond to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area, converting a corresponding radar reflectivity value into a predicted precipitation rate using the Marshall-Palmer relation;
(5) for each of the plurality of cells determined to correspond to precipitation that is expected to move over the target area, converting the predicted precipitation rate determined in step (4) into a predicted precipitation amount by multiplying the predicted precipitation rate by the amount of time that precipitation for each respective cell is expected to remain over the target area;
(6) accumulating predicted precipitation amounts for each of the plurality of cells in step (5) into a total predicted precipitation amount;
(7) averaging the total predicted precipitation amount over the target area; and
(8) displaying the total predicted precipitation amount on the computer display.
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Specification