Method and system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts and projected replenishment shipments for a retail stores supply chain

• US 6,609,101 B1
• Filed: 03/25/2000
• Issued: 08/19/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 03/26/1999
• Status: Expired due to Term

• Current Assignee: Blue Yonder Group, Inc. (Panasonic Holdings Corporation)
• Original Assignee: The Retail Pipeline Integration Group Incorporated
• Inventors: Landvater, Darryl V.
• Primary Examiner(s): Hafiz, Tariq R.
• Assistant Examiner(s): LOFTIS, JOHNNA RONEE
• Application Number:
  US09/536,335
• Time in Patent Office: 1,242 Days
• Field of Search: 705/10
• US Class Current: 705/7.25
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/087 Inventory or stock management, e.g. order filling, procurement or balancing against orders
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

A time-phased forecasting and replenishment system (20) for retail organizations which can be used for inventory management and financial management. One or more computers (28) create time-phased plans for one or more retail facilities, such as various types of retail stores (23) and/or various types of suppliers (24). The system calculates projected sales for each product at each facility and calculates projected replenishment shipments between facilities and suppliers a specified number of weeks into the future. The calculated forecasts and replenishments are done in ways that account for the unique needs of retail organizations, and allow efficient processing and storage of the large data volumes typical in many retail organizations.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts and projected replenishment shipments for a retail store supply chain using product sales history records generated by retail stores in the supply chain, the system comprising:

a) a forecasting system that determines projected sales of a first plurality of products for a retail store in the supply chain using the product sales history records for said retail store, wherein said first plurality of products is a subset of a second plurality of products that is larger than said first plurality of products and said projected sales are determined in accordance with a first benchmark;

b) a replenishment system that determines first projected replenishment shipments of products to said retail store from a first entity in the retail store supply chain using said projected sales determined by said forecasting system, wherein said first projected replenishment shipments are determined in accordance with said first benchmark; and

c) wherein said first benchmark comprises determining (i) said projected sales for one year in the future in a first time period and (ii) said first projected replenishment shipments for one year in the future in a second time period, when said first plurality of products is 15,000 in number, said second plurality of products is 50,000 in number, the product sales history records are 715,000 in number, there is a net change for only said first plurality of products, and said projected sales and said first projected replenishment shipments are determined using a computer capable of executing, in either of said first time period and said second time period, no more than an equivalent number of instructions to what can be executed by a computer having two X86 instruction set microprocessors, one gigabit of transient memory and at no more than an average of 60% utilization of said two microprocessors, in either of said first time period and said second time period, wherein if said forecasting system and said replenishment system are caused to operate in accordance with said first benchmark said first time period and second time period are each less than 20 minutes.

2. A system according to claim 1, further wherein said replenishment system determines second projected replenishment shipments of products to said first entity by a second entity in the supply chain using said first projected replenishment shipments.

3. A system according to claim 1, wherein said first time period and said second time period are each 10 minutes or less.

4. A system according to claim 1, further including a computer system having a CPU, memory and a user interface.

5. A system according to claim 1, further wherein said forecasting system determines said projected sales for said second plurality of products.

6. A system according to claim 1, wherein said forecasting system determines said projected sales as a function of changes in date, relative to preceding years, of a holiday that impacts shopping patterns.

7. A system according to claim 1, wherein said forecasting system determines said projected sales by shifting sales history records for said holiday from a first week in a preceding year in which said holiday fell to a second week in the current year in which the holiday falls, and using a calculation of sales history to fill in sales history records for said first week that were shifted to said second week.

8. A system according to claim 1, wherein said forecast system determines said projected sales by smoothing product demand over time, further wherein said forecast system eliminates smoothing of product demand during a specified time period proximate a holiday that affects shopping patterns.

9. A system according to claim 1, wherein said forecasting system determines said projected sales within a weekly time period by allocating greater projected sales to certain days of the week, further wherein said forecasting system includes an override for reallocating said greater projected sales to selected days proximate a holiday where increased sales are expected to occur based on proximity of said selected days to the holiday.

10. A system according to claim 1, wherein said replenishment system determines said projected replenishment shipments for a product as a function of time-phased safety stock, which is determined as a function of shelf space configuration information for said product.

11. A system according to claim 1, wherein said forecasting system determines said projected sales by grouping selected different products together and treating them as a single product.

12. A system according to claim 1, wherein said replenishment system determines said first projected replenishment shipments by grouping selected different products together and treating them as a single product.

13. A system according to claim 2, wherein said replenishment system determines said second projected replenishment shipments by grouping selected different products together and treating them as a single product.

14. A system according to claim 1, wherein said first entity is one of a retail supplier, a satellite supplier, a retail depot, a wholesaler, an independent distributor, a manufacturer'"'"'s supplier or a manufacturer'"'"'s plant, and said second entity supplies products to said one first entity.

15. A system according to claim 1, wherein said replenishment system determines an initial replenishment shipment for a product before a promotion for said product to account for increased demand as a result of said promotion as a function of (a) safety time and (b) percentage of products for said promotion to be provided in said initial replenishment shipment as a function of at least one of (i) retail store location, (ii) product and (iii) promotion, further wherein said replenishment system permits a user to override said safety time and said percentage.

16. A system according to claim 2, wherein said replenishment system determines said first and second projected replenishment shipments as a function of safety stock levels for a first product demand outside of promotional periods for such product and as a function of safety time levels for a second product demand during promotional periods for such product.

17. A system according to claim 2, wherein said forecasting system determines said projected sales for a product during a promotional period for said product on a daily basis using daily sales data generated during said promotional period for said product as a function of whether said daily sales data falls within tolerances and, if so, by generating new projected sales using a weighted combination of said daily sales data and previously determined projected sales for the day on which said daily sales data was generated.

18. A system according to claim 17, wherein said replenishment system determines said first and second replenishment shipments during said promotional period on a daily basis using said daily projected sales for said promotional period determined by said forecasting system.

19. A system according to claim 4, wherein said memory includes transient memory and persistent memory, further wherein data used by said forecasting system to determine said projected sales and data used by said replenishment system to determine said first projected replenishment shipments is stored in said persistent memory in user-selected first time increments, further wherein:

a) said forecasting system determines said projected sales for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said projected sales for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory; and

b) said replenishment system determines said projected first and second replenishment shipments for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said first and second projected replenishment shipments for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory.

20. A system according to claim 2, further including an exception generator for generating exceptions to at least one of said projected sales, said first replenishment shipments and said second replenishment shipments, and for displaying said exceptions via said user interface.

21. A system according to claim 20, wherein said exception generator groups together all of said exceptions for a given product, organizes said exceptions in order of criticality for said given product and organizes individual products within a plurality of products in order of criticality of said exceptions for said individual products.

22. A system according to claim 20, wherein said exception generator suppresses exceptions by at least one of end date, product quantity tolerance and date tolerance in accordance with user-provided instructions.

23. A system according to claim 20, further wherein:

a) said forecasting system generates a first visual representation of said projected sales for display by said user interface;

b) said replenishment system generates a second visual representation of said first and second replenishment shipments for display by said user interface;

c) said exception generator generates a third visual representation of said exceptions for display by said user interface;

d) the system includes a visual interface for working with (i) said first, second and third visual representations, and (ii) associated data stored in said memory; and

e) said first, second and third visual representations and said visual interface being simultaneously viewable via said user interface.

24. A system according to claim 2, further including a financial analysis system for performing financial analysis with respect to products in the retail store supply chain using said projected sales, said first replenishment shipments and said second replenishment shipments.

25. A system according to claim 2, further including an MRP system for performing manufacturing resource planning with respect to products to be provided to said first entity based on at least one of said first replenishment shipments and said second replenishment shipments.

26. A system according to claim 1, wherein said replenishment system determines said planned replenishment shipments as a function of at least one of inventory, order quantity rules and shelf configuration.

27. A system according to claim 26, wherein said replenishment system determines said planned replenishment shipments as a function of at least two of inventory, order quantity rules and shelf configuration.

28. A system according to claim 26, wherein said replenishment system determines said planned replenishment shipments as a function of at least three of inventory, order quantity rules and shelf configuration.

29. A system according to claim 26, wherein said replenishment system determines said planned replenishment shipments as a function of inventory, order quantity rules and shelf configuration.

30. A method of determining time-phased product sales forecasts and projected replenishment shipments for a retail store supply chain using product sales history records generated by retail stores in the chain, the method comprising the steps of:

a) determining projected sales of a first plurality of products for a retail store in the supply chain using the product sales history records for said retail store, wherein said first plurality of products is a subset of a second plurality of products that is larger than said first plurality of products and said projected sales are determined in accordance with a first benchmark;

b) determining first projected replenishment shipments of products to said retail store from a first entity in the retail store supply chain using said projected sales, wherein said first projected replenishment shipments are determined in accordance with said first benchmark; and

c) wherein said first benchmark comprises determining (i) said projected sales for one year in the future in a first time period and (ii) said first projected replenishment shipments for one year in the future in a second time period, when said first plurality of products is 15,000 in number, said second plurality of products is 50,000 in number the product sales history records are 715,000 in number, there is a net change for only said first plurality of products, and said projected sales and said first projected replenishment shipments are determined using a computer capable of executing, in either of said first time period and said second time period, no more than an equivalent number of instructions to what can be executed by a computer having two X86 instruction set microprocessors, one gigabit of transient memory and at no more than an average of 60% utilization of said two microprocessors, in either of said first time period and said second time period, wherein if said step a) and said step b) are performed using said first benchmark said first time period and second time period are each less than 20 minutes.

31. A method according to claim 30, further wherein said step b includes the step of determining second replenishment shipments of products to said first entity by a second entity in the supply chain using said first projected replenishment shipments.

32. A method according to claim 30, wherein said first time period and said second time period are 10 minutes or less.

33. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step a involves determining said projected sales as a function of changes in date, relative to preceding years, of a holiday that impacts shopping patterns.

34. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step a involves determining said projected sales by smoothing product demand over time except during a specified time period proximate a holiday that affects shopping patterns.

35. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step b involves determining said projected replenishment shipments for a product as a function of time-phased safety stock, which is determined as a function of shelf space configuration information for said product.

36. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step b involves determining an initial replenishment shipment for a product before a promotion for said product to account for increased demand as a result of said promotion as a function of (a) safety time and (b) percentage of products for said promotion to be provided in said initial replenishment shipment as a function of at least one of (i) retail store location, (ii) product and (iii) promotion, further wherein said replenishment system permits a user to override said safety time and said percentage.

37. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step b involves determining said first and second projected replenishment shipments as a function of safety stock levels for a first product demand outside of promotional periods for such product and as a function of safety time levels for a second product demand during promotional periods for such product.

38. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step a involves determining said projected sales for a product during a promotional period for said product on a daily basis using daily sales data generated during said promotional period for said product.

39. A method according to claim 30, wherein said steps a and b are performed using a computer having a processor, persistent memory, transient memory and a user interface, and data used in said step a to determine said projected sales and data used in said step b to determine said first projected replenishment shipments is stored in said persistent memory in user-selected first time increments, further wherein:

a) said step a involves determining projected sales for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said projected sales for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory; and

b) said step b involves determining said projected first and second replenishment shipments for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said first and second projected replenishment shipments for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory.

40. A method according to claim 30, further including the step of generating exceptions as to at least one of said projected sales, said first replenishment shipments and said second replenishment shipments, further wherein all of said exceptions for a given product are grouped together, said exceptions for a given product are organized in order of criticality, and individual products within a plurality of products are organized in order of criticality of said exceptions for said individual products.

41. A method according to claim 40, wherein said exceptions are suppressed by at least one of date, product quantity tolerance and product end date tolerance in accordance with user-provided instructions.

42. A method according to claim 40, further including the steps of:

a) generating a first visual representation of said projected sales for display by said user interface;

b) generating a second visual representation of said first and second replenishment shipments for display by said user interface;

c) generating a third visual representation of said exceptions for display by said user interface; and

d) visually displaying via said user interface (i) said first, second and third visual representations, and (ii) associated data stored in said memory.

43. A method according to claim 30, further including the step of performing financial analysis with respect to products in the retail store supply chain using said projected sales, said first replenishment shipments and said second replenishment shipments.

44. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step b involves determining said planned replenishment shipments as a function of at least one of inventory, order quantity rules and shelf configuration.

45. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step b involves determining said planned replenishment shipments as a function of at least two of inventory, order quantity rules, shipping schedules and shelf configuration.

46. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step b involves determining said planned replenishment shipments as a function of at least three of inventory, order quantity rules, shipping schedules and shelf configuration.

47. A method according to claim 30, wherein said step b involves determining said planned replenishment shipments as a function of inventory, order quantity rules, shipping schedules and shelf configuration.

48. A computer-implemented system for determining time-phased product sales forecasts and projected replenishment shipments for a retail store supply chain using product sales history records generated by retail stores in the chain, the system comprising:

a) first means for determining projected sales of a first plurality of products for a retail store in the supply chain using the product sales history records for said retail store, wherein said first plurality of products is a subset of a second plurality of products that is larger than said first plurality of products and said projected sales are determined in accordance with a first benchmark;

b) second means for determining first projected replenishment shipments of products to said retail store from a first entity in the retail store supply chain using said projected sales, wherein said first projected replenishment shipments are determined in accordance with said first benchmark; and

c) wherein said first benchmark comprises determining (i) said projected sales for one year in the future in a first time period and (ii) said first projected replenishment shipments for one year in the future in a second time period, when said first plurality of products is 15,000 in number, said second plurality of products is 50,000 in number, the product sales history records are 715,000 in number, there is a net change for only said first plurality of products, and said projected sales and said first projected replenishment shipments are determined using a computer capable of executing, in either of said first time period and said second time period, no more than an equivalent number of instructions to what can be executed by a computer having two X86 instruction set microprocessors, one gigabit of transient memory and at no more than an average of 60% utilization of said two microprocessors, in either of said first time period and said second time period, wherein if said first means and said second means are caused to operate in accordance with said first benchmark said first time period and second time period are each less than 20 minutes.

49. A system according to claim 48, further wherein said second means determines said second replenishment shipments of products to said first entity by a second entity in the supply chain using said first projected replenishment shipments.

50. A system according to claim 48, wherein said first time period and second time period are 10 minutes or less.

51. A system according to claim 48, wherein said second means determines said projected replenishment shipments for a product as a function of time-phased safety stock, which is determined as a function of shelf space configuration information for said product.

52. A system according to claim 48, further including a computer having a processor, persistent memory, transient memory and a user interface, and data used by said first means to determine said projected sales and data used by said second means to determine said first projected replenishment shipments is stored in said persistent memory in user-selected first time increments, further wherein:

a) said first means determines projected sales for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said projected sales for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory; and

b) said second means determines said projected first and second replenishment shipments for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said first and second projected replenishment shipments for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory.

53. A computer-readable storage medium containing a computer program executable by a computer, the computer program comprising the steps of:

a) determining projected sales of a first plurality of products for a retail store in a retail store supply chain using product sales history records for said retail store, wherein said first plurality of products is a subset of a second plurality of products that is larger than said first plurality of products and said projected sales are determined in accordance with a first benchmark;

b) determining first projected replenishment shipments of products to said retail store from a first entity in the retail store supply chain using said projected sales, wherein said first projected replenishment shipments are determined in accordance with said first benchmark; and

c) wherein said first benchmark comprises determining (i) said projected sales for one year in the future in a first time period and (ii) said first projected replenishment shipments for one year in the future in a second time period, when said first plurality of products is 15,000 in number, said second plurality of products is 50,000 in number, the product sales history records are 715,000 in number, there is a net change for only said first plurality of products, and said projected sales and said first projected replenishment shipments are determined using a computer capable of executing, in either of said first time period and said second time period, no more than an equivalent number of instructions to what can be executed by a computer having two X86 instruction set microprocessors, one gigabit of transient memory and at no more than an average of 60% utilization of said two microprocesses, in either of said first time period and said second time period, wherein if said step a) and said step b) and performing using said first benchmark said first time period and second time period are each less than 20 minutes.

54. A computer-readable storage medium according to claim 53, wherein said step b involves determining said projected replenishment shipments for a product as a function of time-phased safety stock, which is determined as a function of shelf space configuration information for said product.

55. A computer-readable storage medium according to claim 53, wherein said steps a and b are intended to be performed using a computer having a processor, persistent memory, transient memory and a user interface, and data used in said step a to determine said projected sales and data used in said step b to determine said first projected replenishment shipments is stored in said persistent memory in user-selected first time increments, further wherein:

a) said step a involves determining projected sales for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said projected sales for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory; and

b) said step b involves determining said projected first and second replenishment shipments for user-selected time periods in second time increments that are shorter than said first time increments by transferring data from said persistent memory into said transient memory for a user-selected one of said first time increments, and then determines said first and second projected replenishment shipments for one of said second time increments included within said one of said first time increments using said data stored in said transient memory.