Method and system for estimating time of occurrence of machine-disabling failures

• US 6,643,801 B1
• Filed: 01/26/2000
• Issued: 11/04/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 10/28/1999
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: General Electric Company
• Original Assignee: General Electric Company
• Inventors: Schneider, William Roy, Bliley, Richard Gerald, Jammu, Vinay Bhaskar
• Primary Examiner(s): Beausoliel, Robert
• Assistant Examiner(s): Duncan, Marc M
• Application Number:
  US09/491,939
• Time in Patent Office: 1,378 Days
• Field of Search: 714/26, 714/47, 714/37, 701/29, 701/30, 701/35, 702/184
• US Class Current: 714/37
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 19/4184 characterised by fault tolerance, reliability of production system
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 2219/31402 Keep log book, for activities of a station, equipment
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 2219/32226 Computer assisted repair, maintenance of system components
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 2219/32233 Scheduling repair
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0229 knowledge based, e.g. expert systems; genetic algorithms
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/2268 Logging of test results
• CPC Class Codes: Y02P 90/02 Total factory control, e.g. smart factories, flexible manufacturing systems [FMS] or integrated manufacturing systems [IMS]
• CPC Class Codes: Y02P 90/80 Management or planning

Abstract

A method for analyzing fault log data and repair data to estimate time before a machine-disabling failure occurs is provided. The method allows for searching in a database of historical fault log data from a plurality of machines for the occurrence of respective fault patterns indicative of incipient failures of a respective machine subsystem. The method further allows for searching in a database of historical repair data for respective repairs executed on the respective machine subsystem. The method also allows for computing elapsed time between respective occurrences of the fault patterns and the executed repairs.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing fault log data and repair data to estimate time before a machine-disabling failure occurs, the method comprising:

searching in a database of historical fault log data from a plurality of machines for the occurrence of respective fault patterns indicative of incipient failures of a respective machine subsystem;

searching in a database of historical repair data for respective repairs executed on the respective machine subsystem; and

computing elapsed time between respective occurrences of the fault patterns and the executed repairs.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of searching in the database of historical fault log data comprises determining the total number of cases where the respective fault pattern occurred.

3. The method of claim 1 further comprising a step of identifying cases where the respective fault pattern occurred and a correct repair was executed.

4. The method of claim 1 further comprising a step of identifying cases where the respective fault pattern occurred and an incorrect repair was executed.

5. The method of claim 4 further comprising a step of identifying cases where a repair was executed and no fault pattern indicative of that repair was detected.

6. The method of claim 1 further comprising a step of searching in a database containing historical failures for the respective subsystem.

7. The method of claim 6 further comprising a step of computing elapsed time between respective occurrences of the fault patterns and the occurrence of the subsystem failures.

8. The method of claim 7 further comprising a step of identifying cases where a subsystem failure occurred and no fault pattern indicative of that subsystem failure was detected.

9. The method of claim 3 further comprising a step of computing the ratio of cases where the fault pattern occurred and a correct repair was executed over the total number of cases where the fault pattern was detected.

10. The method of claim 3 further comprising a step of computing the ratio of cases where the fault pattern occurred and an incorrect repair was executed over the total number of cases where the fault pattern was executed.

11. The method of claim 1 where the computing step comprises computing predetermined statistical parameters for the elapsed time for each respective case comprising multiple occurrences of the fault pattern.

12. The method of claim 11 wherein the predetermined statistical parameters computed for the elapsed time are selected from the group consisting of an average, a standard deviation, and maximum and minimum statistical parameters.

13. The method of claim 1 where the computing step comprises computing predetermined statistical parameters for the elapsed time for a plurality of cases, each case comprising a respective failure mode of the respective subsystem.

14. The method of claim 13 wherein the predetermined statistical parameters that are computed for the elapsed time are selected from the group consisting of an average, a standard deviation, and maximum and minimum statistical parameters.

15. The process of claim 1 further comprising a step of processing new fault log data so as to predict the occurrence of a machine-disabling failure upon detection of a predetermined fault pattern based on the computed elapsed time.

16. The process of claim 15 further comprising a step of assigning a respective probabilistic weight to the predicted occurrence of the machine disabling failure.

17. The method of claim 1 wherein the machine comprises a locomotive and the machine-disabling failure comprises a road failure.

18. The method of claim 1 further comprising a step of executing expert and/or automated analysis so as to improve the accuracy of the computed elapsed time.

19. A system for analyzing fault log data and repair data to estimate time before a machine-disabling failure occurs, the system comprising:

a database of historical fault log data from a plurality of machines;

a search module configured to search in the database of historical fault log data for the occurrence of respective fault patterns indicative of incipient failures of a respective machine subsystem;

a database of historical repair data;

a search module configured to search in the database of historical repair data for respective repairs executed on the respective machine subsystem; and

a computer module configured to compute elapsed time between respective occurrences of the fault patterns and the executed repairs.

20. The system of claim 19 further comprising means for determining the total number of cases where the respective fault pattern occurred.

21. The system of claim 19 further comprising means for identifying cases where the respective fault pattern occurred and a correct repair was executed.

22. The system of claim 19 further comprising means for identifying cases where the respective fault pattern occurred and an incorrect repair was executed.

23. The system of claim 22 further comprising means for identifying cases where a repair was executed and no fault pattern indicative of that repair was detected.

24. The system of claim 19 further comprising a database containing historical failures of the respective subsystem.

25. The system of claim 24 further comprising means for searching in the database containing historical failures of the respective subsystem.

26. The system of claim 24 further comprising means for computing elapsed time between respective occurrences of the fault patterns and the occurrence of the subsystem failures.

27. The system of claim 26 further comprising means for identifying cases where a subsystem failure occurred and no fault pattern indicative of that subsystem failure was detected.

28. The system of claim 21 further comprising means for computing the ratio of cases where the fault pattern occurred and a correct repair was executed over the total number of cases where the fault pattern was detected.

29. The system of claim 21 further comprising means for computing the ratio of cases where the fault pattern occurred and an incorrect repair was executed over the total number of cases where the fault pattern was executed.

30. The system of claim 19 where the computer module comprises means for computing predetermined statistical parameters for the elapsed time for each respective case comprising multiple occurrences of the fault pattern.

31. The system of claim 30 wherein the predetermined statistical parameters computed for the elapsed time are selected from the group consisting of an average, a standard deviation, and maximum and minimum statistical parameters.

32. The system of claim 19 where the computer module comprises means for computing predetermined statistical parameters for the elapsed time for a plurality of cases, each case comprising a respective failure mode of the respective subsystem.

33. The system of claim 32 wherein the predetermined statistical parameters that are computed for the elapsed time are selected from the group consisting of an average, a standard deviation, and maximum and minimum statistical parameters.

34. The system of claim 19 further comprising means for processing new fault log data so as to predict the occurrence of a machine-disabling failure upon detection of a predetermined fault pattern based on the computed elapsed time.

35. The system of claim 34 further comprising means for assigning a respective probabilistic weight to the predicted occurrence of the machine disabling failure.

36. The system of claim 19 wherein the machine comprises a locomotive and the machine-disabling failure comprises a road failure.

37. The system of claim 19 further comprising means for executing expert and/or automated analysis so as to improve the accuracy of the computed elapsed time.

38. An article of manufacture comprising:

a computer program product comprising a computer-usable medium having a computer-readable code therein for executing the analysis of fault log data and repair data to estimate time before a machine-disabling failure occurs, the computer-readable code in the article of manufacture comprising;

a computer-readable program code module for searching in a database of historical fault log data from a plurality of machines for the occurrence of respective fault patterns indicative of incipient failures of a respective machine subsystem;

a computer-readable program code module for searching in a database of historical repair data for respective repairs executed on the respective machine subsystem;

a computer-readable program code module for computing elapsed time between respective occurrences of the fault patterns and the executed repairs; and

a computer-readable program code module for processing new fault log data to predict the occurrence of a machine-disabling failure upon detection of a predetermined fault pattern based on the computed elapsed time.