Mathematical therapeutic outcomes model for predicting clinical efficacy therapies

• US 6,666,820 B1
• Filed: 11/28/2001
• Issued: 12/23/2003
• Est. Priority Date: 11/28/2000
• Status: Expired due to Fees

• Current Assignee: Michael D. Poole
• Original Assignee: Michael D. Poole
• Inventors: Poole, Michael D.
• Primary Examiner(s): Hindenburg, Max F.
• Assistant Examiner(s): ASTORINO, MICHAEL C
• Application Number:
  US09/995,903
• Time in Patent Office: 755 Days
• Field of Search: 600/300-301, 128/920-925, 128/897-898, 705/2-4, 702/19, 706/924
• US Class Current: 600/300
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 10/20 for electronic clinical trials or questionnaires
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 20/10 relating to drugs or medications, e.g. for ensuring correct administration to patients
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 50/20 for computer-aided diagnosis, e.g. based on medical expert systems
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 50/50 for simulation or modelling of medical disorders
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 70/60 relating to pathologies
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 128/92 Computer assisted medical diagnostics

Abstract

A method and system allow a physician or other clinical care provider to consistently and logically place and correlate the various interdependent facts or assumptions made during the examination and testing of a patient in a fashion that provides a numerical estimate of treatment effectiveness. The primary and secondary factors are gathered and input to the system, and each factor may have a numerical effect on another factor in the calculation. The system guides the clinician in the selection of a treatment protocol from the available treatment regimes.

Claims

1. A method of predicting the efficacy of a medical treatment of a patient, comprising the steps of:

a. developing a clinical diagnosis of a disease;

b. determining the statistical incidence of incorrect diagnosis of the disease;

c. determining the statistical incidence of the contribution of known pathogens to the correctly diagnosed disease;

d. determining the statistical incidence of disease, caused by the pathogens determined in step 1.c, which does not spontaneously resolve;

e. determining the statistical efficacy of predetermined treatments for the incidence of disease determined in step 1.d; and

f. based on the determinations of steps 1.a through 1.e, calculating the likelihood of resolution of the disease, indicative of the efficacy of the predetermined treatments.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of, after the step of determining the statistical incidence of incorrect diagnosis of the disease, then determining the statistical incidence of those cases of incorrect diagnosis which will spontaneously resolve.

3. The method of claim 2, further comprising the step of, after the step of determining the statistical incidence of those cases of incorrect diagnosis which will spontaneously resolve, then modifying the determined statistical incidence of those cases of incorrect diagnosis which will spontaneously resolve by a modifier, the modifier based on factors determined from the clinical picture of the patient.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of, after the step of determining the statistical incidence of incorrect diagnosis of the disease, then determining the statistical incidence of those cases of incorrect diagnosis which will not spontaneously resolve.

5. The method of claim 4, further comprising the step of, after the step of determining the statistical incidence of those cases of incorrect diagnosis which will not spontaneously resolve, then modifying the determined statistical incidence of those cases of incorrect diagnosis which will not spontaneously resolve by a modifier, the modifier based on factors determined from the clinical picture of the patient.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of, after the step of determining the statistical incidence of the contribution of known pathogens to the correctly diagnosed disease, modifying the statistical incidence of the contribution of each of the known pathogens to the correctly diagnosed disease by a modifier, the modifier based on factors determined from the clinical picture of the patient.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of, after the step of determining the statistical incidence of disease, caused by the pathogens determined in step 1.c, which does not spontaneously resolve, modifying the statistical incidence of disease, caused by the pathogens determined in step 1.c, which does not spontaneously resolve by a modifier, the modifier based on factors determined from the clinical picture of the patient.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising the step of, after the step of determining the statistical efficacy of predetermined treatments for the incidence of disease determined in step 1.d, modifying the statistical efficacy of predetermined treatments for the incidence of disease determined in step 1.d by a modifier, the modifier based on factors determined from the clinical picture of the patient.

9. A system for predicting the efficacy of a medical treatment of a patient, the system comprising:

a. means for developing a clinical diagnosis of a disease;

b. means for determining the statistical incidence of incorrect diagnosis of the disease;

c. means for determining the statistical incidence of the contribution of known pathogens to the correctly diagnosed disease;

d. means for determining the statistical incidence of disease, caused by the pathogens determined by means 9.c, which does not spontaneously resolve;

e. means for determining the statistical efficacy of predetermined treatments for the incidence of disease determined by means 9.d; and

f. means for calculating the likelihood of resolution of the disease, indicative of the efficacy of the predetermined treatments, based on the determinations of means 9.a through 9.e.

10. A method of predicting the efficacy of a medical treatment of a patient, comprising the steps of:

a. assembling an interdependent array of data, the data comprising;

i. a clinical diagnosis of a disease;

ii. statistical incidence of incorrect diagnosis of the disease;

iii. statistical incidence of the contribution of known pathogens to the correctly diagnosed disease;

iv. statistical incidence of disease, caused by the determined pathogens, which does not spontaneously resolve;

V. statistical efficacy of predetermined treatments for the determined incidence of disease; and

b. based on the assembled data of step 10.a, calculating the likelihood of resolution of the disease, indicative of the efficacy of the predetermined treatments.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the alteration of any of the interdependent array of data alters the indication of the efficacy of the predetermined treatments.